Jon Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Nobody in the right mind should be making a landfall prediction a week out without the cone of uncertainty. I am pretty sure independent mets take in consideration of what the NHC has to say too. I would hope so, even in the case of JB. There is plenty of room for the NHC to really screw up...aka the above mentioned Debby. We did not see the cone undergo dramatic shifts with Sandy. My point is NHC didn't hook until Oct 24th, Advisory #10 at 5pm. But I agree about Debby, they screwed that one up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Bottom line is that the general public listening to JB had an additional 48-72 hours at least to prepare for sandy vs those that only followed nws/Nhc. Nws/Nhc were several days behind in regards to warning the public of Sandy's potential. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Just to go on the record here...neither me or Powerstroke back tracked to the Caribbean. That was Jon and our mod. I was very aware of the beginning...but I only responded to Powerstroke's original 3 day to landfall discussion...which both JB and the NHC did very well. Half the things being said here are actually not opinions...they are facts. As they should be, Hurricane Sandy is gone. It's probably a good time to end the Sandy discussion. Go back to the tidbits and teases from JB...its probably what the lurkers want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Just to go on the record here...neither me or Powerstroke back tracked to the Caribbean. That was Jon and our mod. I was very aware of the beginning...but I only responded to Powerstroke's original 3 day to landfall discussion...which both JB and the NHC did very well. Half the things being said here are actually not opinions...they are facts. As they should be, Hurricane Sandy is gone. It's probably a good time to end the Sandy discussion. Go back to the tidbits and teases from JB...its probably what the lurkers want. I agree with ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Breaking: NHC Modifies Hurricane Warning Definition in Wake of Sandy http://www.weather.com/news/hurricane-warning-changes-20121205 There we can all be happy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 I agree with ya. We must have mote that subscribe to jb since they know what he said before sandy was on the map. He doesnt put everything on fb and twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Just saw on JB twitter page showing CFS forecast around Christmas.Looks very cold and 3 of the 4 maps shpw snow for N.C. I don't usually believe in the CFS models but they may be on to our pattern change.coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Brad Panovich released a blog entry on when the cold may return: http://wxbrad.com/when-does-the-cold-return/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I very much appreciate all of the postings here, including those from JB, and encourage that they continue. They are definitely of value to me and probably many here. However, I don't know...the optimism as a whole just doesn't seem to jibe with the overall picture to this point because of the really doodooey Pacific. It might actually be refreshing to see a few more pessimistic tidbits focusing on the Pacific as a major factor that won't necessarily be dominated by the -NAO/-AO. The problem with JB is that getting him to admit that now is more difficult than getting Brick to be happy with no snow or getting me to give up ice cream or walking. Also, keep in mind that JB doesn't at all focus on the SE US. He tends to be more NE and maybe even more Midwest/Plains centric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I very much appreciate all of the postings here, including those from JB, and encourage that they continue. They are definitely of value to me and probably many here. However, I don't know...the optimism as a whole just doesn't seem to jibe with the overall picture to this point because of the really doodooey Pacific. It might actually be refreshing to see a few more pessimistic tidbits focusing on the Pacific as a major factor that won't necessarily be dominated by the -NAO/-AO. The problem with JB is that getting him to admit that now is more difficult than getting Brick to be happy with no snow or getting me to give up ice cream or walking. Also, kepe in mind that JB doesn't at all focus on the SE US. He tends to be more NE and maybe even more Midwest/Plains centric. I got my head bit off for saying that a while back... But I agree. It appears the entire South-East is flat to him. That, or he does not have time to mention western NC. I don't blame him tho, you know he has more paid viewers from the north-east region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Brad Panovich released a blog entry on when the cold may return: http://wxbrad.com/wh...he-cold-return/ He mentions the key to getting the bottled up cold is the NAO, however he didn't mention anything about the pacific. I think he may be oversimpliying a bit as I don't think just a -NAO gets us anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 JB knows Western NC well. He was on WSJS every morning for several years. I feel strongly his lack of focus on this area is purely economic. Nothing wrong with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 @WataugaRoads: Heather Wingler sends this in with "This (believe or not) is snow still on the ground from our Halloween... http://t.co/Y95L2tUu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Skiers Forecast from Brad Panovich http://www.skisoutheast.com/video-forecast.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 @BigJoeBastardi: @Barrowice Euro Winter will be colder than last 3, perhaps coldest since 62-63. Posting on http://t.co/PLfR7MZV premium within hour Cold Europe generally does not also gice a cold USA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 FWIW JB as of 11:30 this morning still on board for COLD mid Dec-mid Jan!!!! guess we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 FWIW JB as of 11:30 this morning still on board for COLD mid Dec-mid Jan!!!! guess we'll see! I'm happy JB's comments are posted and appreciate them fully. However, I do have to ask. Cold where? If that's all he said, it is not specific. Regardless, I suspect he's at least not concentrating on the SE with these types of statements. He normally concentrates on areas NE, N, and NW of NC. The Plains, Midwest, and/or the NE can be cold and the SE US not of course. If that were to verify, he could say he was right. I do think the SE US gets much closer to normal..that would be a good cooldown as it stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 JB knows Western NC well. He was on WSJS every morning for several years. I feel strongly his lack of focus on this area is purely economic. Nothing wrong with that. And it could be because the "snow" we get down here, is sort of rare, and is pidgeon droppings compared to say, Buffalo, lol. Though I never hear him, or any of them, going on about how delightfully warm it is in Ga. this time of year... the snowbirds seem to find the place anyway I think the generally accepted thinking up there, is winter ain't squat down here, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 And it could be because the "snow" we get down here, is sort of rare, and is pidgeon droppings compared to say, Buffalo, lol. Though I never hear him, or any of them, going on about how delightfully warm it is in Ga. this time of year... the snowbirds seem to find the place anyway I think the generally accepted thinking up there, is winter ain't squat down here, lol. T Pretty much. I think, as far as this year goes, they will be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 FWIW JB as of 11:30 this morning still on board for COLD mid Dec-mid Jan!!!! guess we'll see! As of 2:36 this afternoon JB is still wrong but hopes by moving the goalposts out 2-3 weeks and not giving a region that will get cold that he can claim victory. If it is going to be cold somewhere in the next month which happens to coincide with the heart of winter he can claim victory. He called for a cold december now let's push it back two weeks and if that doesn't work out I predict he calls for a fab feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 FWIW JB as of 11:30 this morning still on board for COLD mid Dec-mid Jan!!!! guess we'll see! He will likely be right. Won't take much to get us out of the upper 60s and 70s going into the heart of winter. I think by then, we could possibly get back to seasonable or just mild temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 He will likely be right. Won't take much to get us out of the upper 60s and 70s going into the heart of winter. I think by then, we could possibly get back to seasonable or just mild temps. I agree, the cold probably want make down here... like you said maybe normal? but the maps he shows looks to me like it includes the se??? he's got a lot of models and mets that totally disagree wirh him! I hope he's right, but I'm certainly not looking for it to be real cold around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 As of 2:36 this afternoon JB is still wrong but hopes by moving the goalposts out 2-3 weeks and not giving a region that will get cold that he can claim victory. If it is going to be cold somewhere in the next month which happens to coincide with the heart of winter he can claim victory. He called for a cold december now let's push it back two weeks and if that doesn't work out I predict he calls for a fab feb. yeah looks like a fab February is all we got to look forward to! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 yeah looks like a fab February is all we got to look forward to! Lol I'm still trying to figure out where the fab was last feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Only thing JB is tweeting furiously about is record cold in Europe. Europe Europe Europe. Who cares about Europe. I guess that's what happens when there's absolutely nothing to look forward to in the east for the next two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Only thing JB is tweeting furiously about is record cold in Europe. Europe Europe Europe. Who cares about Europe. I guess that's what happens when there's absolutely nothing to look forward to in the east for the next two months. Yea i'm sick of the Europe tweets, I don't live in Europe!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I'm still trying to figure out where the fab was last feb. I think He was talking about this Feb, last year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Sigh...looks like the cross country skis will stay in the rack and instead hiking treking polls will be in use thi winter. Heck...maybe I should mount the cross country skis on the wall like a novelty decorative item. Dagblammitt.....I swear I can't take another winter of no winter like last year. I felt this season playing out this way when up to 2 feet of elevation snow fell in the late October storm....what a precursor to what looks like winter fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 The fab Feb went on a European vacation last winter,and looks like its about to make a return trip for Xmas! I'm still trying to figure out where the fab was last feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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