bhamwx205 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Obviously I was not talking about the first two weeks of dec. But to write off the whole month is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 The panic and frustration/lack of patience are understandable after last year's horror show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I guess pattern changes only refer to winter weather on here...guess the drought and the upcoming above normal temps will be overlooked for the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Good lord .... The doom and gloom about december is funny Even if the winter were to somehow be wall to wall warm, the doom and gloom would be funny only because it is taken so seriously. It wouldn't be the end of the world. We somehow survived last winter. Keep in mind that I do enjoy cold and any wintry precip. that winter just so happens to bring. However, without it, life still goes on even if we don't get what we'd prefer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I guess pattern changes only refer to winter weather on here...guess the drought and the upcoming above normal temps will be overlooked for the next few weeks. Drought and warm temps are really not that exciting. Ok its dry and warm wooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 After last year, I will quit assuming the worst when something other than the worst occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 One positive about last winter was that my time on this board was probably less than 40% of what it was the previous winter. My power heating bill was much less and my running was much more comfortable. Having said that, I much prefer cold and frozen or freezing precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Drought and warm temps are really not that exciting. Ok its dry and warm wooo! A pattern change to 60+ degree weather will feel nice though this time of year! Plenty of time for a miserably dry cold winter... May need to change the title of the thread to... A change to a wintry pattern emerging after Christmas? Don't think there is anyone else left to cliff dive...or do we think the pattern will change before Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 as an aside, I blame this pattern on Accuweather, who as I recall predicted a cold and wet winter. Right on cue, the first part of winter is shaping up to be warm and dry. Well to be fair they were one of the few to predict little to no frozen precip for NC last winter...that's why I brought them up this winter. Their maps are on google images for those interested...for the past and present if your looking for a quick search. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Brad Panovich posted this for Charlotte but is probably true for most of the SE....obviously Jan/Feb are our banner months and I don't think anyone is arguing against that. I thought the main purpose of this thread was simply to talk about when we kick off winter from a weenie's perspective if you will with the first threat of real cold and possible moisture to go with it. I'll keep checking this thread daily and SV despite the GFS/Euro advertising some warm temps in the mid range....hopefully the LR GFS is seeing something and it flips...if not well we've already lived through the winter of 2011/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Somebody post the 324 Hour 12Z GFS and let's get back to Winter here! This thread has become depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Somebody post the 324 Hour 12Z GFS and let's get back to Winter here! This thread has become depressing. 12z GFS run looks much better starting next Thur - Friday time frame. Looking for the big lakes cutter to "bomb out" in eastern Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Alan Huffman said today that we go the last four months of being below average on temps, and we get to the start of December, where it counts, and it's starting off above average for the month. Go figure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Somebody post the 324 Hour 12Z GFS and let's get back to Winter here! This thread has become depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Somebody post the 324 Hour 12Z GFS and let's get back to Winter here! This thread has become depressing. The 12Z GFS, days 9-16, looks like a typical SE December pattern. Cold chasing precip, warm up, and then back to dry/cool/cold. But even for general pattern setups, I don't trust the models past day 7. So looking at (only) day 7 it looks like a good setup for cold to invade the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 The 12Z GFS, days 9-16, looks like a typical SE December pattern. Cold chasing precip, warm up, and then back to dry/cool/cold. But even for general pattern setups, I don't trust the models past day 7. So looking at (only) day 7 it looks like a good setup for cold to invade the SE. Verbatim, you don't see snow. But if you look north, you find a very nice positioning of some key upper air features...+PNA, -NAO block, blocking over northwestern Canada, the GOA trough/vortex is gone, etc. I don't care about individual storms at the 324 hour range, and I hardly care about upper air patterns at that range (only because this is a fantasy land-time frame thread). But if IF the upper air features are correct, then we're in business! At the very least, it's miles better than what we've been seeing lately. Besides, I'm sure it'll change by next run anyway. Also, ^^Thanks, Burger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Brad Panovich posted this for Charlotte but is probably true for most of the SE....obviously Jan/Feb are our banner months and I don't think anyone is arguing against that. I thought the main purpose of this thread was simply to talk about when we kick off winter from a weenie's perspective if you will with the first threat of real cold and possible moisture to go with it. I'll keep checking this thread daily and SV despite the GFS/Euro advertising some warm temps in the mid range....hopefully the LR GFS is seeing something and it flips...if not well we've already lived through the winter of 2011/12. I'll take a snowstorm whenever I can get one but when looking at your chart it looks lile Feb it our best month for snow.There's still hope for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I think there's a consensus now that through Mid December is going to be mild because of the pacific flow. That seems to be the issue we need to key on for a pattern change, since we generally have the negative NAO already. What do we need to look for in the models to get the pacific to shift to a -EPO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Verbatim, you don't see snow. But if you look north, you find a very nice positioning of some key upper air features...+PNA, -NAO block, blocking over northwestern Canada, the GOA trough/vortex is gone, etc. I don't care about individual storms at the 324 hour range, and I hardly care about upper air patterns at that range (only because this is a fantasy land-time frame thread). But if IF the upper air features are correct, then we're in business! At the very least, it's miles better than what we've been seeing lately. Besides, I'm sure it'll change by next run anyway. Also, ^^Thanks, Burger I totally agree, I just want to see those indices closer in date; which we do at day day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Just read Allan Huffman's blog for today and the long range for Decemeber seems a lot warmer than previously thought. He said the NAO even goes positive, so we won't even have that going for us. Ugh. Seems like a repeat of last winter. Wait, it's going to get better, and it never does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I totally agree, I just want to see those indices closer in date; which we do at day day 7. Agreed! It seems like we never see looks like that inside the 240+ time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Agreed! It seems like we never see looks like that inside the 240+ time frame. The good stuff is always 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 The good stuff is always 10 days away. Look on the bright side, soon you'll be able to play basketball during lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Look on the bright side, soon you'll be able to play basketball during lunch. I won't even be able to do that anymore because my office is moving. So, there's no point anymore for me to want a warm winter. I'd rather it snow a foot and just stay home. But it looks like we won't be seeing any in December. And the longer we wait for it, I feel the less and less we have a chance of seeing any this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I won't even be able to do that anymore because my office is moving. So, there's no point anymore for me to want a warm winter. I'd rather it snow a foot and just stay home. But it looks like we won't be seeing any in December. And the longer we wait for it, I feel the less and less we have a chance of seeing any this winter. Thanks Weirdmann. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I won't even be able to do that anymore because my office is moving. So, there's no point anymore for me to want a warm winter. I'd rather it snow a foot and just stay home. But it looks like we won't be seeing any in December. And the longer we wait for it, I feel the less and less we have a chance of seeing any this winter. I see that Brick's end of year Weenie of the Year campaigning is off to a fantastic start! He's the very best at what he does and other prospective WOTY's should take notes on Brick's methodology. Brick has made it to so many finals that I've now lost count. On behalf of the entire SE American wx bb community, thanks for all that you do for us! You are our brick and morter and are appreciated so much for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I see that Brick's end of year Weenie of the Year campaigning is off to a fantastic start! He's the very best at what he does and other prospective WOTY's should take notes on Brick's methodology. Brick has made it to so many finals that I've now lost count. On behalf of the entire SE American wx bb community, thanks for all that you do for us! You are our brick and morter and are appreciated so much for that! He needs to quit screwing around in the finals and win the thing for a change. "Almost" is the difference between snow and cold rain. It's just not good enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 He needs to quit screwing around in the finals and win the thing for a change. "Almost" is the difference between snow and cold rain. It's just not good enough! Brick needs to spread his expertise into other regions to successfully conquer the title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 He needs to quit screwing around in the finals and win the thing for a change. "Almost" is the difference between snow and cold rain. It's just not good enough! Cold rain sucks! I don't mean you, I mean the actual cold rain. I'd rather it snow or be warm and dry. Anything else is horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 27, 2012 Author Share Posted November 27, 2012 Brick needs to spread his expertise into other regions to successfully conquer the title. He may also win the BWOTY Award for that kind of stunt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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