OSUmetstud Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 the trough to the northwest is killing the cold air...it's never really good for heavy snow, especially this time of year. It causes warm advection in advance of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 That is one nasty day on the GFS...basically like 36-44F and rain for almost all of New England...maybe some 50s on the Cape. Perhaps a few flakes at the end that accumulate on the top of powderfreak's head while he is swaying from a noose in the breeze at 3800 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 the trough to the northwest is killing the cold air...it's never really good for heavy snow, especially this time of year. It causes warm advection in advance of the storm. Yeah I think in the winter it wouldn't matter, but in an already marginal setup...you can't have that. This storm is a classic track to bury us on the GFS normally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 That is one nasty day on the GFS...basically like 36-44F and rain for almost all of New England...maybe some 50s on the Cape. Perhaps a few flakes at the end that accumulate on the top of powderfreak's head while he is swaying from a noose in the breeze at 3800 feet. While looking at past pictures of skiers buried weenie deep in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Yeah I think in the winter it wouldn't matter, but in an already marginal setup...you can't have that. This storm is a classic track to bury us on the GFS normally. Yeah if it was Thanksgiving weekend, that setup probably destroys the elevated interior with a cement bomb....if it was Dec 15th, it probably destroys BOS and if it was Jan 10th, it probably hammers even down to the Canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Man that is a pummeling on the coast too. 12 hrs of mixing greater than 50kts down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro has better mixing of winds in coastal SNE and on the Jersey shore than in Sandy. 50-60 kt at ACY and Cape May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It is interesting that the GFS this go around does not have as much energy diving into the trough as the 00z euro does. 00z euro has a closed H5 contour over Lake Michigan on 12z Wednesday. The end result is a further east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We are in the wrong time zone for big snows this week....man the northern Rockies get hammered in this pattern with that trough out there. Type of pattern that gives those 6 foot snowstorms to Yellowstone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We are in the wrong time zone for big snows this week....man the northern Rockies get hammered in this pattern with that trough out there. Type of pattern that gives those 6 foot snowstorms to Yellowstone. Poor PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Look at this thermal gradient at 950mb. Wow. I wonder how the euro would look with a track like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The GFS has a brief period of ZR above 1500ft. Congrats MRG at the 2k site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Poor PF. Lol...we can see the meltdown coming. In all seriousness, that is an epic pattern for the N and eventually central Rockies. Good for the drought that happened out there this past summer...build up that autumn snow pack for big spring runoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Look at this thermal gradient at 950mb. Wow. I wonder how the euro would look with a track like that. Ray gets his CF...just this time with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The GFS has a brief period of ZR above 1500ft. Congrats MRG at the 2k site. Haircicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Lol...we can see the meltdown coming. In all seriousness, that is an epic pattern for the N and eventually central Rockies. Good for the drought that happened out there this past summer...build up that autumn snow pack for big spring runoff. That's epic. I think they'll see a lot more snow over the next couple of weeks too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Ray gets his CF...just this time with rain Yeah it may be like 50 for a time here and he is perhaps in the U30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro has better mixing of winds in coastal SNE and on the Jersey shore than in Sandy. 50-60 kt at ACY and Cape May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 the only good thing about that is the low is not tucked in just inland which would veer the wind more easterly and be worse farther north where they got the worst damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I know which model I would put my money on. Is the NAM more like the GFS or ECM? It is interesting that the GFS this go around does not have as much energy diving into the trough as the 00z euro does. 00z euro has a closed H5 contour over Lake Michigan on 12z Wednesday. The end result is a further east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 the only good thing about that is the low is not tucked in just inland which would veer the wind more easterly and be worse farther north where they got the worst damage. doesn't surge water move a little to the right due to the coriolis force? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Lol do now a paste bomb is a slushy inch? a slushy inch paste bomb for the deep interior heartland of central CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 doesn't surge water move a little to the right due to the coriolis force? Ekman spiral. A north wind would still bring in water as it moves to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Following that GFS run, snow mongers should take heart knowing there are many more runs to come to determine what will play out. Meanwhile, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GEFS have a low looks just just outside the BM, but a huge MSLP contour meaning there is some spread whether it is further east or west. Canadian has a 969 low going just SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 doesn't surge water move a little to the right due to the coriolis force? initial surge values are 2-4 ft in damaged areas, seas 15-20. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=text&list=ec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We're getting coastals. Too early for most of us to obsess on snow but whoever gets it enjoy the gift. But the pattern of coastals is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We're getting coastals. Too early for most of us to obsess on snow but whoever gets it enjoy the gift. But the pattern of coastals is a good thing. It's never too early, Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We're getting coastals. Too early for most of us to obsess on snow but whoever gets it enjoy the gift. But the pattern of coastals is a good thing. Yes indeed 1995? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GEFS have a low looks just just outside the BM, but a huge MSLP contour meaning there is some spread whether it is further east or west. Canadian has a 969 low going just SE of the BM. Sounds interiorly snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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