HailMan06 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I would say sustained at ~ne 5mph and gusting to 10-15mph A couple hrs ago the wind was barely detectable and now some of the larger trees are starting to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Where, which coast? i would say most exposed areas facing E and or SE on the upper mid atlantic coast, who aren't expecting much impact till monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Euro with another landfall in central jersey. Maybe a tad south of 12z. I think we have a great consensus What is the minimum SLP with the storm at landfall on the 00z ECM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What is the minimum SLP with the storm at landfall on the 00z ECM? 946 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What is the minimum SLP with the storm at landfall on the 00z ECM? Hard to tell exactly because its in 6 hr increments. I'd say probably around 950. This is going to be a very powerful storm no matter what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 946 Wow much deeper than the last run I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Where, which coast? Since we are in this forum. The nj and li coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wow much deeper than the last run I believe It seems like the Sandy is getting stronger on the models. We might have a low in the 940's when it makes landfall. Steve D thinks that the storm might make landfall in the 930's or the 940's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 low 940s has winds in excess of 130mph, lets not go overboard now....i think remaining around 960 makes the most sense, maybe a couple ticks into the upper 950s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Will check wundermaps when they update, but instantwxmaps has 944.6 mb at 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Makes landfall at 942-944 mb just south of Toms River, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 low 940s has winds in excess of 130mph, lets not go overboard now....i think remaining around 960 makes the most sense, maybe a couple ticks into the upper 950s. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 low 940s has winds in excess of 130mph, lets not go overboard now....i think remaining around 960 makes the most sense, maybe a couple ticks into the upper 950s. no. you can't just deduce wind from pressure. all models are pretty much 942-952 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 0z HWRF hits central Jersey . 931mb http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2012102800-sandy18l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=060hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 0z HWRF hits central Jersey . 931mb http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=060hr Way too slow...NAM has the surface low over State College by 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Very good consensus drawn up by the 00z suite. HWRF/GFDL/GFS/TVCN (red) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 0z HWRF hits central Jersey . 931mb http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2012102800-sandy18l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=060hr And Maximum 10M wind at 69.6 Kts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Way too slow...NAM has the surface low over State College by 60 hours. Yep. Way too slow and strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 RGEM at 48 hours down to 950mb and approaching the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 This is from Meteorologist Jim Rinaldi. If the models were right at 0z , NYC would be looking at 50-70 sustained winds with gusts near 100. Rainfall 5-10 inches would be my best estimate right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 0z HWRF hits central Jersey . 931mb http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=060hr i would take the way over on that, closer to 950 which is still crazy ismy guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 RGEM at 48 hours down to 950mb and approaching the coast My guess would be in the 940s at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Winds are actually slowly picking up. Can here it in the trees. Gonna be a fun couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Unrealness about to emerge. I'm going to check out the effects on the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 0z GFS 925mb winds at 8pm Monday. 80kt+ winds for Central and Eastern LI and SE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 We as weather enthusiasts are always quite excited about these potential storms. However, I can honestly say that based on these latest model outcomes, as we emerge with a complete consensus, this whole situation is beginning to frighten me. Millions of people are about to witness something none of us may ever witness in our lives again.. In fact, most of us just aren't sure what'is going to happen as this whole system is just that anomalous. I really pray that that potential severity of this storm is outlined by the media today, even if they end up incorrect b/c otherwise many people may die if this storm isn't taken seriously.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 With the lapse rates I figured out from 900hpa-to the surface(HR 48) the eta lapse rate is only -2.48 K/km. This would mean that only about 30% of those winds would transfer down, because of the weak lapse rates. Thats what is going to be tough to figure out...no question 900mb winds on the GFS were 90kts at 00-04Z over a good part of the metro area but the forecasting soundings are so darn stable and this won't be a tropical system any longer, so what are the chances if any we can get all of that to the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Earthlight: Sorry for the delay but here is the link to the surge maps: http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/SSWS/d/index.shtml?station=N017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm wondering if the deep pressure that models have this at landfall suggests Sandy will still be a hurricane when it comes onshore. NAM and GEM still show a warm core right through 48 hours when it's approaching the coast. Could it be that ET transition will be slower than expected? Yet, we have an expanding wind field presently which suggests that ET transition may be starting. Dazed and confused.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Track is locking into central NJ landfall and my consensus method now relates more to timing and intensity. Current result is 945 mb low from 00z to 03z tracking west or 280 deg near or slightly north of 40N, landfall (possibly at 03-06z Tuesday) pressure 948, about 30-50 south of Asbury Park. I am predicting maximum gusts of around 100 kts or 115 mph in many parts of the region between 40N and 41.5N, trending down to about 80 knots in nc NJ and e PA. Gusts to 70 kts or perhaps higher in NW backing to W flow around ACY, PHL, 60 kts BWI-DCA. Rainfall estimates 4-8 inches Long Island and NYC, 5-12 inches w CT, 3-6 e CT-RI-MA ... 10-20 se NY north of Yonkers to about Albany and in n/c NJ, s NJ, PHL, , 20-25 nw NJ ne PA sharp gradient to 5 in IPT-SYR and 1-2 in w NY, Toronto. Snowfalls 15-30 inches parts of w/c PA, w MD, most of WV, noVA to 600' then sleet or rain to sea level. Expect widespread thunder and lightning in landfall time frame 00z-09z all around NYC. Winds could gust to 150 mph exposed higher locations including urban >50 storeys. Very high impact storm damage potential from wind damage and and storm surges, river flooding. Seems like a 500-1000 year return event as depicted on 00z model suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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