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hurricane sandy thread #2


forkyfork

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We as weather enthusiasts are always quite excited about these potential storms. However, I can honestly say that based on these latest model outcomes, as we emerge with a complete consensus, this whole situation is beginning to frighten me. Millions of people are about to witness something none of us may ever witness in our lives again.. In fact, most of us just aren't sure what'is going to happen as this whole system is just that anomalous.

I really pray that that potential severity of this storm is outlined by the media today, even if they end up incorrect b/c otherwise many people may die if this storm isn't taken seriously..

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With the lapse rates I figured out from 900hpa-to the surface(HR 48) the eta lapse rate is only -2.48 K/km. This would mean that only about 30% of those winds would transfer down, because of the weak lapse rates.

Thats what is going to be tough to figure out...no question 900mb winds on the GFS were 90kts at 00-04Z over a good part of the metro area but the forecasting soundings are so darn stable and this won't be a tropical system any longer, so what are the chances if any we can get all of that to the surface?

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I'm wondering if the deep pressure that models have this at landfall suggests Sandy will still be a hurricane when it comes onshore. NAM and GEM still show a warm core right through 48 hours when it's approaching the coast. Could it be that ET transition will be slower than expected? Yet, we have an expanding wind field presently which suggests that ET transition may be starting. Dazed and confused..

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Track is locking into central NJ landfall and my consensus method now relates more to timing and intensity.

Current result is 945 mb low from 00z to 03z tracking west or 280 deg near or slightly north of 40N, landfall (possibly at 03-06z Tuesday) pressure 948, about 30-50 south of Asbury Park.

I am predicting maximum gusts of around 100 kts or 115 mph in many parts of the region between 40N and 41.5N, trending down to about 80 knots in nc NJ and e PA. Gusts to 70 kts or perhaps higher in NW backing to W flow around ACY, PHL, 60 kts BWI-DCA.

Rainfall estimates 4-8 inches Long Island and NYC, 5-12 inches w CT, 3-6 e CT-RI-MA ... 10-20 se NY north of Yonkers to about Albany and in n/c NJ, s NJ, PHL, , 20-25 nw NJ ne PA sharp gradient to 5 in IPT-SYR and 1-2 in w NY, Toronto.

Snowfalls 15-30 inches parts of w/c PA, w MD, most of WV, noVA to 600' then sleet or rain to sea level.

Expect widespread thunder and lightning in landfall time frame 00z-09z all around NYC.

Winds could gust to 150 mph exposed higher locations including urban >50 storeys.

Very high impact storm damage potential from wind damage and and storm surges, river flooding.

Seems like a 500-1000 year return event as depicted on 00z model suite

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