Hurricane Sandy/Potential EC Event Discussion Part II

[Damage In Tolland]

Gibbs is on board .

[Damage In Tolland]

Yup, May see landfall further north in later runs

the earlier it is the farther south it tracks.

[CT Rain]

So 2 GEFS members miss... the rest hit. Some as early as 12z Monday and others by 12z Tuesday. The op GFS is the latest and farthest northeast (besides the 2 misses) we a 00z Wednesday.

If this thing is going to hit I'm leaning toward earlier. It will be interesting to see what the op Euro/Euro Ens do.

[CoastalWx]

Scooter- do you think the SLOSH model would be run for this system or the the storm surge XT version?

I have no idea, don't see why not?

[moneypitmike]

Gradient is sick. Something liek a track just south of SNE would be very bad for the coast.

Good place for it right now. Especially if we see the fwd speed pick up more than modeled.

That NY/NJ point would present all sorts of western sound issues from HVN to LGA, no? Litchfield Libations to Litchfield Flotations.

[nutmegfriar]

Been waiting to order a load of firewood and the hard wiring for the generator. Just made both calls.

[Typhoon Tip]

it'll be interesting to see how Jamaica's elevations effect - there are some 6 and 7 thousand foot peaks in the eastern part of the island and Sandy is heading headlong toward that -

[CT Rain]

I have no idea, don't see why not?

Whatever it's run as it will be run on a TANDY.

With the likelihood of a warm seclusion with a large gale field AND and tight inner core I'm not sure what would work better.

[amarshall]

I may pull the boat. Going to wait until tomorrow to make the call.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Whatever it's run as it will be run on a TANDY.

With the likelihood of a warm seclusion with a large gale field AND and tight inner core I'm not sure what would work better.

standby - the 00z NGM just now rolling off my dot-matrix printer.

[Wx4cast]

Whatever it's run as it will be run on a TANDY.

With the likelihood of a warm seclusion with a large gale field AND and tight inner core I'm not sure what would work better.

Lucky we're in storm mode, clowny! LOL BTW the TANDY died.

I was just wondering as I wasn't sure which one would be better.

[CT Rain]

standby - the 00z NGM just now rolling off my dot-matrix printer.

You should see the T1 numbers on the FOUS!

[Typhoon Tip]

You should see the T1 numbers on the FOUS!

Ha, i can't wait to see the FRH grid when/if this is knocking on the door.

[ORH_wxman]

120-144 hours to go...that is still an eternity in the met world. The large scale blocking feature in the N ATL gives us margin for error, but man, a lot can still happen.

[JSantanaNYC]

what time does the euro comes out again? 2:30pm?

[free_man]

Let's hope Sandy tracks similar to Ivan? and bounces around those mtns.

[TalcottWx]

Euro would be icing on the cake. Would be an incredible consensus at this time range.

[CT Rain]

120-144 hours to go...that is still an eternity in the met world. The large scale blocking feature in the N ATL gives us margin for error, but man, a lot can still happen.

Yup. That's the truth.

I think what we're looking at now indicates that we'll likely have a substantial storm impacting somewhere in the NE. I think that's likely. Whether it's a run of the mill noreaster... or a hurricane... I don't know.

[OKpowdah]

If this pans out as progged, I might have to see a shrink for missing this

[usedtobe]

So 2 GEFS members miss... the rest hit. Some as early as 12z Monday and others by 12z Tuesday. The op GFS is the latest and farthest northeast (besides the 2 misses) we a 00z Wednesday.

If this thing is going to hit I'm leaning toward earlier. It will be interesting to see what the op Euro/Euro Ens do.

For ensembles at that time range, that is pretty good agreement and the depth of the low on the ens mean is really low for that far out. given that the euro ensemble mean and the gefs are now in the same ballpark, it's seems increasingly likely that someone between delmarva and maine are going to get hammered. I think the lowest probability is the delmarva track but who knows.

[CT Rain]

For ensembles at that time range, that is pretty good agreement and the depth of the low on the ens mean is really low for that far out. given that the euro ensemble mean and the gefs are now in the same ballpark, it's seems increasingly likely that someone between delmarva and maine are going to get hammered. I think the lowest probability is the delmarva track but who knows.

I'm thinking, Wes, that the capture with the gigantic pull west is a bit unlikely. Most storms that have been close to being absorbed seem to have gotten the tug a bit early and moved more S to N rather that such a circuitous route.

[wxnut]

Would this be the most crippling/high impact east coast storm since March of 93 if it occurs as currently modeled?

Interesting that you mention that. I was just commenting on how this situation reminds me of the sense of awe I had back in March 1993 when we started seeing these day 3-5 progs coming into the office showing this insane storm plowing into the eastern seaboard. We couldn't believe it at first, but the models kept insisting that something big was on the way.. run after run. A few days later... Superstorm 1993. 

That was back in the days before Internet and social media.. I can only imagine the hysteria this thing will bring if things keep trending the way they are. 

[Typhoon Tip]

120-144 hours to go...that is still an eternity in the met world. The large scale blocking feature in the N ATL gives us margin for error, but man, a lot can still happen.

Yeah, Cisco mentioned this in his Prelim, that given the huge blocking pattern this whole scenario along the EC actually has some wiggle room for error -

wow. i mean ...this is like a "you're not getting out of this one" lightning bolt from the gods - ahahhahaha

[Roger Smith]

Hi, I won't clog up your regional forum with a lot of posts but a few thoughts ...

The wide turn on the GFS and the somewhat less wide turn on the GEM are still looking less realistic than the earlier Euro track and I think they should be taken as transitional signs of model consensus developing closer to the Euro track. Maybe the most likely to verify track at this point is something like 40N 69W to eastern Long Island to central CT to Albany NY. But if the Euro holds to western Long Island NYC landfall, then I think that has to be the preferred solution until proven otherwise, this has been a case from the start of poorly resolved major retrograde blocking (for the GFS and GEM, the latter more wavering in its final approach, the GFS if this verifies being without a clue until this last run). Since it is a case of unresolved blocking finally being seen and appreciated, the model that got it right from the start is obviously the form horse. The wide swing looks wrong somehow, but the analogue set is basically about 2 give or take 1.

On any sort of blended or Euro track, this is going to slam hard into Long Island Sound and produce a major storm surge there as well as the potential for winds gusting over 100 mph. Boston would see almost that bad an impact on the southern track, on the GEM track you'd better pray in Boston that the GEM is wrong, and on the GFS track at the moment you could expect much less intense westerly winds in most of CT-RI-MA (and se NY) in the 50-80 mph range, the stronger SE winds would hit north of Portland where at least the coast is more elevated and less populated. But I have to say that the GFS is less likely to verify if the Euro holds to its previous track philosophy.

Inland wind forecasts are going to be complicated by topographic issues but there should be a quite rapid easing of maximum wind speeds west of the Hudson valley except on higher exposed slopes. But if the GFS or GEM verify there could be very strong NW winds over the Great Lakes eventually. Rainfall potential with this seems to vary considerably with these different tracks, I think the GEM track would bring catastrophic flooding to NH and VT more than to southern New England, but the Euro track would place western CT and the Hudson valley in the bullseye for rainfall. The GFS track would be a more spread out rainfall event that might max out in unpopulated areas of far northern New England and southeast Quebec. There again, I don't think that's the most likely to verify.

I think the TV mets will be in the life-saving business this weekend and Monday, because as some have said, not everyone in the region is at risk but some who are will be facing a major risk of severe impacts. It is a good philosophy to say the storm won't be "like this one or that one" and will establish its own unique signature, but on a general basis you can't help noting the similarities more than the differences with 1938.

[CoastalWx]

I'm thinking, Wes, that the capture with the gigantic pull west is a bit unlikely. Most storms that have been close to being absorbed seem to have gotten the tug a bit early and moved more S to N rather that such a circuitous route.

Yes less of a longitudinal pull, but perhaps an acceleration to substitute. Perhaps, but who knows with that block...and would still potentially be a good pull to NW.

[Typhoon Tip]

what time does the euro comes out again? 2:30pm?

It's not coming out this time - the Euro center is holding the world for ransom. Saying they won't disseminate the run unless they get a trillion dollars.

James Bond in route -

[CT Rain]

Let me also say this... the amount of baroclinic forcing available for this storm is obscene given the progged jet configuration over the Atlantic. It is truly a special setup when you throw a perfectly timed hurricane into the mix.

Bob Hart's cyclone phase space shows an extremely unusual (for a landfalling NE hurricane) extratropical transition to warm seclusion. That's frightening. Massive gale field, deep central pressure, and very tight central (warm) core.

[NaoPos]

^^^ redonk.

Any comparison storms in terms of transition (landfalling and non landfalling) that could be compared to?

[Zeus]

speaking of dead, welcome back from the...should be fun. I kind of like the GFS scenario as a plausible outcome.

I wasn't dead; the weather was just boring. But thank you, and who are you?

And I just like the fact that the weather looks to be getting interesting again. I've been hankering for something utterly gloomy, like a day-long pounding rainstorm, complete with wind.

This scenario is even more enticing, and the trend certainly seems favorable for some bumpy weather (though we're still a bit far out as far as time frame is concerned in my opinion; plenty of wiggle room especially when a large Caribbean island is yet to be passed).

Also, has anyone made the Sandy Duncan one eye jokes yet? Because if not, we need to get on that.

[Typhoon Tip]

Let me also say this... the amount of baroclinic forcing available for this storm is obscene given the progged jet configuration over the Atlantic. It is truly a special setup when you throw a perfectly timed hurricane into the mix.

Bob Hart's cyclone phase space shows an extremely unusual (for a landfalling NE hurricane) extratropical transition to warm seclusion. That's frightening. Massive gale field, deep central pressure, and very tight central (warm) core.

Writing's been on the wall if that happens... You could visualize the warm seclusion pretty easily in those depictions 2 days ago and in fact I recall Scott, you and I discussing it.

Just before Sandy slips inside the "event horizon" - so to speak - she's warm core (or at least warmer core); but then capture happens - that doesn't automatically require in the physics that things start processing cold/baroclinic, uniformly.

Warm seclusion seemed(s) an easy bet.