PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I like my map now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 LOL...GFS has low backing into NYC then heading east again...pretty dry solution for many of us. Very very strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Then doing a three-point backward turn (if RI was the parking space). Bizarre. Haha seems to me that the GFS captures this thing further northeast than the 18z run, so you have it stalling, maturing, and beginning to decay in SNE instead of the mason-dixon line near Gettysburg. I figured we were due for some kind of a correction from the insistent march southwest in the guidance. Rest of the 0z should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 LOL! GGEM so far east it barely grazes Nova Scotia. I gotta get to bed, wish I could stay up for the Euro. It'll be interesting. And hilarious if it goes more south/west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GGEM takes Sandy to Nova Scotia by the sounds of it. I thought we were over this haha. That'll def temper the curve into the Delmarva track potential some.. for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GGEM is back to giving central PA snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GGEM is back to giving central PA snow. same for here in BUF. Actually a pretty good dose for us according to GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Henry M ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Here's the GGEM loop, thats one heck of a track. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Also the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Others can run with the pack - I'm with the King on this deal. It has, since 10/2, shown this solution (outside of its mid range crisis where it jogged off the path for a while). But it's been back - with a vengance and wants to go no other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The city of Hbg is down to its last 1 mil pretty soon - Euro impact clean up would just about seal the deal for wiping it out financially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GFS track reminds me of a tractor trailer making a left turn. That's the second time I've seen a tractor-trailer mentioned wrt this storm and her track. I can appreciate that as I drive one for a living. Ironically, I haul water...which I think we'll see a lot of... That being said, forgetting about snow for a minute, which track would be the worst case scenario for the CTP region? A southern track into the Delmarva, a blended track into north central New Jersey, or a hit on Long Island? I figure each track would bring at least slight differences as to whether we'd see more wind or more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That's the second time I've seen a tractor-trailer mentioned wrt this storm and her track. I can appreciate that as I drive one for a living. Ironically, I haul water...which I think we'll see a lot of... That being said, forgetting about snow for a minute, which track would be the worst case scenario for the CTP region? A southern track into the Delmarva, a blended track into north central New Jersey, or a hit on Long Island? I figure each track would bring at least slight differences as to whether we'd see more wind or more rain. I think it each scenario you mention, each creates issues and presents different sets of challenges to our area, but honestly not sure which would be worse. Someone did say if it hit NY and then started to go west, we would see more prolonged issues then we did with Irene. edit- i just spoke with my Cuz, who is an electrician and sells electrical supplies for Yale, he said they sold every generator they had in the building yesterday..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 looks like 6-8" in the Harrisburg area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm not so concerned about the rain (the river can handle this one, although the tributaries will definitely flood); I just don't want 40+ mph wind consisently for hours on end. Irene ripped siding off my house along with facia, and it was gusting to 60 but mostly in the 40s and that sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm not so concerned about the rain (the river can handle this one, although the tributaries will definitely flood); I just don't want 40+ mph wind consisently for hours on end. Irene ripped siding off my house along with facia, and it was gusting to 60 but mostly in the 40s and that sucked. the wind has been my biggest concern all along. ya know, many people don't realize the pounding we took form Irene. I feel like the past 2 years we've been in a wind turbine or something. I'm planning for the loss of power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah, same here. Irene we had sustained at 45 for IIRC 8-9 straight hours. My parents plane is set to leave Harrisburg at 1:15 p.m. Monday. I told them to pack extra clothes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah, same here. Irene we had sustained at 45 for IIRC 8-9 straight hours. My parents plane is set to leave Harrisburg at 1:15 p.m. Monday. I told them to pack extra clothes. my brother is to fly back in from Cali Monday at 7 on monday, i told him to pack extra too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 CNN is using "Sandy may merge with winter storm to menace Northeast" as headline on homepage... its things like this where public becomes misinformed by media and end up blaming the weather guy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow...cant' believe HNC plots take center of Sandy directly over us early Wednesday morning with winds still sustained over 50 mph. Pressure below 960??? I"ve never lived through any event where sustained winds were even over 40mph for any length of time. Lowest pressure I ever recorded was 969mb with the Superstorm back in '93 when the center of that low passed within 10 miles of my home in north jersey (just west of Newark). If this pans out as depicted I probably won't try to drive to York to work on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 interesting how people in other threads are suddenly throwing out the euro because NAM/GFS favor their backyards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 interesting how people in other threads are suddenly throwing out the euro because NAM/GFS favor their backyards... yep, same chit, different day. just got back from buying 2 LED battery operated lanterns to add to my no power kit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Going to Steelers game Sunday. Any thoughts on what I can expect on the drive back Sunday evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Going to Steelers game Sunday. Any thoughts on what I can expect on the drive back Sunday evening? 12z Euro swings further east before crashing into the coast which then creates less of an impact for PA on Sunday other than the stalled out front to the west. I wouldnt expect much more than breezy conditions, overcast skies, and periods of a light drizzle/shower. Monday is when things look to really get serious. 12z Euro is the worst possible scenario IMO... landfall in southern NJ presents a massive storm surge for most of the NJ coast/NYC/Long Island with flooding rain and high wind for big cities like Philly, Baltimore, DC, and the Harrisburg/York/Lancaster region with feet of snow in WV/SW PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 12z Euro swings further east before crashing into the coast which then creates less of an impact for PA on Sunday other than the stalled out front to the west. I wouldnt expect much more than breezy conditions, overcast skies, and periods of a light drizzle/shower. Monday is when things look to really get serious. 12z Euro is the worst possible scenario IMO... landfall in southern NJ presents a massive storm surge for most of the NJ coast/NYC/Long Island with flooding rain and high wind for big cities like Philly, Baltimore, DC, and the Harrisburg/York/Lancaster region with feet of snow in WV/SW PA. so basically east of the laurels is rain, west snow? still approx 6-8" rain for the HBG area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 so basically east of the laurels is rain, west snow? still approx 6-8" rain for the HBG area? Model output not showing that much rain but with the dynamics/upper level winds/etc to me the output QPF totals are likely underdone. The fact that some of these model runs are moving the storm inland and slow it down to then have it turn northeast present a long duration impact event with wind and rain is worrisome. A track like this run I believe would produce close to that 6-8" yes and always possible for localized higher amounts... would have to track a little further north for southwest PA to really get the cold air for good elevation snow, but this run again buries WV. I still feel Euro and GFS are at the extremes and somewhere in between is most likely scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Model output not showing that much rain but with the dynamics/upper level winds/etc to me the output QPF totals are likely underdone. The fact that some of these model runs are moving the storm inland and slow it down to then have it turn northeast present a long duration impact event with wind and rain is worrisome. A track like this run I believe would produce close to that 6-8" yes and always possible for localized higher amounts... would have to track a little further north for southwest PA to really get the cold air for good elevation snow, but this run again buries WV. I still feel Euro and GFS are at the extremes and somewhere in between is most likely scenario The coming days will be nail biters for sure. Thanks for your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Model output not showing that much rain but with the dynamics/upper level winds/etc to me the output QPF totals are likely underdone. The fact that some of these model runs are moving the storm inland and slow it down to then have it turn northeast present a long duration impact event with wind and rain is worrisome. A track like this run I believe would produce close to that 6-8" yes and always possible for localized higher amounts... would have to track a little further north for southwest PA to really get the cold air for good elevation snow, but this run again buries WV. I still feel Euro and GFS are at the extremes and somewhere in between is most likely scenario Here's the HPC take on the the rainfall potential: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 PEMA has put out a press release with your standard "be ready for the storm" message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Is this still an epic storm...or more of a breezy/gusty rainy day type nor'easter for CPA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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