Jmister Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yep, I heard that guy who went to PSU Hazy is horrible. He's ruining threads all the time with his pessimism and lack of analysis. Atm he's wrecking the Joel Myers Wx Center with his pessimism. What a loser! I'll have to come upstairs and shut him up! Lolz jk. I am simply amazed that this storm is coming together. Back on Monday it was just a fantasy, but it's realer than I'd ever have guessed now. The 06z GFS had a cold rain for most outside the high ground of SW PA. For UNV, it's heavy rain and temps in the 34-37 range in the heaviest rain. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kunv 12z NAM at 84 (I know, I know) is much cooler looking with the storm approaching the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 did they ban you from the super e-wall yet? Nope...not yet. On a less sarcastic note: If this does not wind up being a heavy snow event - what can we expect in terms of potential flooding issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I still wouldn't discount a major snow event for CPA quite yet. These major phase events tend to be down to the wire solutions. Tough saying what a phasing sub 970 low pressure will do when it comes to manufacturing its own cold air. There are hardly any analogs to go off from, so who knows how this thing will act in terms of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sandy is trying to pop an eye again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Nope...not yet. On a less sarcastic note: If this does not wind up being a heavy snow event - what can we expect in terms of potential flooding issues? track of the storm will determine this... if Euro landfall around delmarva and it curves west just imagine the upstream winds on the Susquehanna with a great deal of moisture to produce heavy rains... a more GFS like track would avoid the upstream winds and be more favorable for cold air to work its way in for a large portion of the state and less rainfall likely... http://www.srh.noaa.....php?pil=FFGPA2 here is the latest flash flood guidance... the 1 hour might be tough to reach... 3 hour possible... 6 and 12 hour more likely to be possible *edit: so the longer the duration we see rain with the storm the more likely flooding will become an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What would the winds be like here in State College if, say, a 970mb low passed within 50 miles of us? I know they'd be strong, but how strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS is fully onboard, pretty warm tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 its soon going to be time to get serious about Sandy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm 23, work as a guidance counselor at a catholic school in danville lol. But looking at the latest GFS..my hard to get snow comment may be dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm 23, work as a guidance counselor at a catholic school in danville lol. But looking at the latest GFS..my hard to get snow comment may be dead on. Any definitive statement about this storm right now isn't a good idea. Remember when you latched on to the gfs when it said "nothing to see here folks"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I keep thinking of Putting on the Ritz from Young Frankenstein for some reason. Because that is classic, thats why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 its soon going to be time to get serious about Sandy.. History of the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 History of the GFS: i can't see attachment never mind, there it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z Euro is just nasty... Euro wants to take out DC while GFS wants to take out NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z Euro is just nasty... Euro wants to take out DC while GFS wants to take out NYC... either way, we get impacted in some way shape or form. i'm almost ready to go into storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 FYI PPL, PennDOT and PEMA have cancelled personal leave for employees as of this afternoon through next week. PPL's already called its sister stations in other states to go ahead and send crews/trucks to stand-by this weekend and has beefed its call centers starting Saturday afternoon. I now work in a quasi-state-owned agency so I'll be getting these notices. My parents fly in Friday and are supposed to leave Monday at 1 p.m. Supposed is the optimal word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NWS says in update on track it has now, main threat for area is 2 to 4 inches of rain and gusty winds. The rain I think we could use, wind I'm not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Very interesting looking on the last few frames of the 18z NAM. Heavy precip is making its way back into the area Sun night, causing the 850mb temps to drop with the evap cooling. I wish we could see what the next few frames look like because it looks like it wants to make it snow in some areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 FYI PPL, PennDOT and PEMA have cancelled personal leave for employees as of this afternoon through next week. PPL's already called its sister stations in other states to go ahead and send crews/trucks to stand-by this weekend and has beefed its call centers starting Saturday afternoon. I now work in a quasi-state-owned agency so I'll be getting these notices. My parents fly in Friday and are supposed to leave Monday at 1 p.m. Supposed is the optimal word. Yea, this is becoming evident that PA is going to be impacted majorly with this event and the track and how quickly it turns in is going to dictate what ends up being the worst impact (and i'm speaking for our area specifically). The afternoon Euro cutting underneath PA into VA points the conveyor belt of extremely anomalous moisture over our region, and screams widespread flooding potential. 10m wind gusts of 40-50knots were pretty widespread in central and eastern PA, and with the track diving underneath, winds would be easterly..which trees wouldn't handle as well with high winds on top of heavy rainfall. A track east and around PA would promote a more traditional westerly component to winds. Wind impact is going to vary with foliage too. I'm down to just the oak trees with leaves and about 50% of that fell in the yard the last couple days (much further ahead of schedule from last fall in the area), so clearly the Sus valley would be a lot more vulnerable to high wind damage with more foliage. The euro relegated snow further southwest in the Apps, with the higher tier of the mountains in the far SW standing the greatest chance of seeing snowfall and the best by far being sw of the area. With that said, the euro seems on the far sw side of guidance with the very early capture. The HPC charts paint the NYC into western NY scenario, which IMO would be the best track for the Laurel's and adjacent central counties to cash in on a snow event. It would get ridiculous in a hurry up in the Laurel's if the track is close enough to deliver the significant QPF yet be just cold enough for snow. HPC forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What would Central PA need to see some snow? SNE to NNY type landfall?? That doesn't seem to likely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 What would Central PA need to see some snow? SNE to NNY type landfall?? That doesn't seem to likely though. I would figure a track to C/N NJ and continuing WNW would do the trick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I would figure a track to C/N NJ and continuing WNW would do the trick... My (uneducated) opinion is in agreement; as long as we stay on the western side of it. If it follows the recent euro op, PA might have some trouble with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 My current running joke is if we get flooding rains, the CATABus becomes the CATABoat... -ducks tomatoes- Anyway: 18z GFS brings it ashore as...sub-950? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What would Central PA need to see some snow? SNE to NNY type landfall?? That doesn't seem to likely though. 18Z GFS says congrats WV SW PA...and so long Philly, nice knowing ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18Z GFS says congrats WV SW PA...and so long Philly, nice knowing ya. Yep - Looks like the "eye" goes right over Lancaster county at about 21Z Tuesday. Wonder if I'll be able to see the stars when the eye passes? (yes, I'm lol-ing) But seriously, this isn't looking pretty for a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18Z GFS says congrats WV SW PA...and so long Philly, nice knowing ya. Wow UNV gets under 960mb, I'm sure that would shatter any observed low pressure records.. and i'm sure same would go for a lot of other places. 18z def went towards the Euro lead of a mid-atlantic impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yep - Looks like the "eye" goes right over Lancaster county at about 21Z Tuesday. Wonder if I'll be able to see the stars when the eye passes? (yes, I'm lol-ing) But seriously, this isn't looking pretty for a lot of folks. Were you affected by the flooding of manheim from irene? http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012102518&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=117 Hour 117 GFS wind map, ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Holy chit the 18z GFS might push water UP into the lower Susky valley from the Chasapeake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Were you affected by the flooding of manheim from irene? I live on a bit of a hill so no water but I work in Manheim. Obviously couldn't get to work that day. I walked the town afterward and it was pretty sobering how many lives were turned upside down. And the smell... You? With the wind component this time around, I'm much more concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I live on a bit of a hill so no water but I work in Manheim. Obviously couldn't get to work that day. I walked the town afterward and it was pretty sobering how many lives were turned upside down. And the smell... You? With the wind component this time around, I'm much more concerned. No worries with water where I am. I know the smell, I was deployed to NOLA with the PA guard following katrina.... terrible. I was just saying on chat that the thing I fear the most is the rainfall and wind combo. If we get the forecast 60-70 mph gusts after hours and hours of rain, it's going to cripple the area. As much as I enjoy seeing nature's destructive power, I hate to see the negative effect it has on people's lives. Needless to say, my inner-self is quite conflicted at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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