JamieOber Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=PA&prodtype=public#PNSCTP Wow. Strongly worded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 And....jamie answers my question lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Is this still an epic storm...or more of a breezy/gusty rainy day type nor'easter for CPA? It's going to miss, just like you said. Euro has a 1001 mb low missing Newfoundland to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 And....jamie answers my question lol I was sort of taken aback by that. Strongly worded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 http://www.nws.noaa....e=public#PNSCTP Wow. Strongly worded. not even a mention of snow from them...not good for us snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It isn't going to snow outside of higher elevations of Laurel Highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 don't read something like that everyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Pa wil be under state of emergency. Pr Corbett on TWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Latest CTP discussion... FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON SANDY AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS OVER THE REGION. OVERALL...THE SCENARIO REMAINS ONE OF WAITING FOR CONSENSUS ON THE NORTHWESTWARD CURL OF SANDY AFTER IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD REMAINS IN TRACK AND INTENSITY SOLUTIONS...RANGING FROM LANDFALL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS APPEARS TO FAVOR EITHER A CENTRAL MD EASTERN SHORE TO SOUTH CENTRAL PA TRACK...OR COASTAL NJ INTO SOUTHEAST PA TRACK...BUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL SHED MORE LIGHT ON THAT. WIND FIELDS SURROUNDING THE LOW CENTER HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE... PARTICULARLY SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT 80 TO 100 KT 850 MB NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. FRIGHTENING TO SAY THE LEAST. FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS LEADING TO TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE THE PRIME THREATS...AND THE IMPACT COULD BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE`VE SEEN FROM ANY STORM IN RECENT MEMORY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A HISTORIC STORM...THE DEVIL REMAINS IN THE DETAILS AND REQUIRES GREATER CONSENSUS AND CERTAINTY TO BE REACHED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. BEYOND THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...A GRADUAL DECAY/FILLING OF THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE PLACE WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVENING A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If Euro/GFS are right LI, the northern NJ beaches and NYC are beyond f'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah...this could be really bad. To our weather guys, what would 80 to 100 kts. at 850mb translate to at the surface? 50 to 60 mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah...this could be really bad. To our weather guys, what would 80 to 100 kts. at 850mb translate to at the surface? 50 to 60 mph? about 75-95 mph at the surface. Dont bet on that verifying though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah...this could be really bad. To our weather guys, what would 80 to 100 kts. at 850mb translate to at the surface? 50 to 60 mph? 80 kts is a little over 90 mph, and IF this were the case at 850 mb i think atleast 60 mph winds would mix down to the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What are you thinking...45 to 50 in gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What are you thinking...45 to 50 in gusts? for you. Maybe a few 60 gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 lol...looks like we need a wind advisory then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 lol...looks like we need a wind advisory then you will dont worry. Not yet though as were 60 hr + away from the onset of the winds. Maybe by tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Btw - the rain from the hung-up CF in W PA - could that be considered as a PRE for Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 We Just wrapped up taping for weather world a bit ago. Special edition of the show for Sandy if anyone is interested. Airs on PCN at 5:30 and 5:45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 lol...if we end up with just a wind advisory and a flood watch nobody will take this thing seriously lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 lol...if we end up with just a wind advisory and a flood watch nobody will take this thing seriously lol. what do you want? A tropical storm warning 150 miles inland? Lmfao. Maybe a high wind warning if gust are expected to exceed 60mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well that's a good thing though, we don't need any wind damage. So just breezy and rainy hopefully. Just getting mixed signals with the NWS saying historic and unprecedented...and then hearing 40mph gusts. But like I said, high winds are never ever a good thing anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well that's a good thing though, we don't need any wind damage. So just breezy and rainy hopefully. Just getting mixed signals with the NWS saying historic and unprecedented...and then hearing 40mph gusts. But like I said, high winds are never ever a good thing anyway. i think the rain will be the biggest threat for us. Prob even more so up my way than yours with the GFS spitting out well over 5" of rain here (7.28" to be exact). Rain like that will cause serious flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 3-5"+ potentially with local higher amounts. Thankfully with low river levels and less rain falling upstream the major Susquehanna should be spared major floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I agree by the way...I think this will be a 2 to 4 incher for rain and highest gusts around 40 to 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This trend means lower sustained winds for us in SC PA, correct? Heavy rain still but a slightly lesser extreme wind field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yea, we certainly aren't looking at serious winds at this point...rain may still be a problem but streams and rivers are very low. I'd say we see gusts 35 to 50 though still! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yea, we certainly aren't looking at serious winds at this point...rain may still be a problem but streams and rivers are very low. I'd say we see gusts 35 to 50 though still! 18z GFS is much colder once the storm phases and comes inland. Much more snow potential for higher elevations in this run than runs previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yea, we certainly aren't looking at serious winds at this point...rain may still be a problem but streams and rivers are very low. I'd say we see gusts 35 to 50 though still! Based on what? WTF are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 WHAT THE HELL DID I MISS? WHY IS EVERYONE SAYING NOT AS BAD NOW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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