EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 We are FOOKED!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Not as f'd as the greater Baltimore area, though. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 WOW. What kind of wind would that bad boy be putting out? Isobars are insane in almost the entire northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Holy, model consensus really has zeroed in on curving Sandy directly over our head. New GFS might be one of the worst impacting runs yet wind wise for C-PA. That is a large area of >75 knot winds at 850mb. The wind barb in central PA is reading 85 knots for that hour. CWA wide high wind warning would easily be achieved with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Conditions begin to go downhill today Good evening everyone, an historic storm is in the making as Hurricane Sandy will combine energy with a upper level trough coming across the Ohio Valley. This storm will have wide reaching effects from the Carolinas to the Northeast, back into the Ohio Valley. Model runs have come in tonight and it looks like the most likely landfall for Sandy will be somewhere between Southern and Central New Jersey. After landfall Sandy will move almost due west or a bit south of due west. The image above (click it to make it larger) is the latest 0Z GFS model, it is showing a strong system of around 952MB over Southeastern Pennsylvania. This storm will spread its winds out over a very large area. Tropical storm force winds extend over 400 miles outward. We'll will now discuss what the effects will be from this large and dangerous storm system. The first issue will be that of heavy rains. Rain will begin lightly tomorrow afternoon as the front and some energy sparks light rain but, the heaviest rain moves in Monday afternoon. Rainfall will exceed 4 inches in many areas with some amounts as high as 10 inches possible. Even decent heavy rains will spread all the way back into Ohio and up into Maine. The National Weather Service offices have issued a Flood Watches for Northern Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Eastern Ohio, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rode Island and parts of Vermont, New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Along with the heavy rains will be the coastal and bay flooding from a high tide and a full moon while this system hits the region. Tides may rise as high as 8 feet along the coast of New Jersey and Long Island. The Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay will also see significant rises. Winds will be the next major issue. The big problem is not just the speed of the winds themselves but, how long they will be lasting and combined with the heavy rain it will cause trees to fall easier. Winds along the coast may gust as high as 80 or 90 miles per hour at the peak of the storm, while a good deal of the area will be gusting up to or over 60 miles per hour. The winds will last 24 to 36 hours with sustained winds over 40 miles per hour at times it will cause significant tree damage and cause likely power outages for most of the region. The National Weather Service offices have issued various High Wind Watches for this reason. The strongest of the winds start Monday afternoon and last through Tuesday afternoon. Not like rain and wind are the only problems. Parts of the region, West Virginia mainly, will pick up over a foot of snow from this event. Cold air will wrap around the low pressure system as it moves over Pennsylvania and transfer down enough could air to dump gobs and gobs of snow on the Mountains of West Virginia. Tuesday will be very chilly in Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia and Virginia with temperatures dropping into the 30's and 40's. It will actually be warmer in New England with temperatures in the 60's. As the cold air continues to filter in it isn't impossible for some flakes to fall even over South Central Pennsylvania and Northwest Maryland. TIMELINE OF IMPACT Sunday: Light rain begins late in the morning/early afternoon (in earnest), with winds just beginning to pick up out of the north 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts to 30mph. On Sunday Night, rain becomes heavy and persist into the overnight with Tropical Storm conditions developing, winds gusting 35 to 45 mph. Monday: The worst day of our forecast, with Tropical Storm Conditions in the Baltimore metro all day, winds sustained 25-35 mph with gusts to 55 mph in the afternoon. This will be accompanied by torrential rains in squalls that extend into the evening, and will mix down strong winds in the evening with very strong winds at 925mb to produce winds sustained up to 50mph Monday Night with some gusts in the overnight approaching 75-80 mph. Tuesday: Heavy rains and squalls continue into Tuesday, as the center of the storm begins to pass through Central Pennsylvania, with winds gusting to hurricane force in the morning, with on and off squally weather persisting into the afternoon. Colder temperatures will wrap into the system, producing snowfall in the western areas just east of the heavy snow (which will approach 2 feet in some places), the cold air will assist in a changeover. Conditions begin to improve Tuesday evening in Maryland through the Northeast, with moderate showers still being isolated, with some snow showers in places west of interstate 95. You still have some time early tomorrow morning to prepare for this large and likely historic storm system. Please take the situation seriously. I am hearing some people just believe we are getting a little rain. Those people are in for a rude awakening. Stay tuned here for the latest. Brisko/Krimm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 And it begins... heavy, heavy drizzle falling. Chilled off pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 CTP's latest update for Cumberland county. I think they are 12hrs to slow with wind. Should be gusting to 70mph Monday night. .TODAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .MONDAY...RAIN. VERY WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN. VERY WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...RAIN. VERY WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...DECREASING TO 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 PAZ036-056>059-063>066-290300- /O.UPG.KCTP.HW.A.0002.121029T1500Z-121031T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.HW.W.0002.121029T1200Z-121030T1600Z/ FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK- LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG... HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK... LANCASTER 411 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES...AND WIDESPREAD...POTENTIALLY LONG-DURATION POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF YOU EXPERIENCE A POWER OUTAGE...DO NOT USE GENERATORS... GRILLS OR OTHER GASOLINE...PROPANE OR CHARCOAL BURNING DEVICES INSIDE YOUR HOME OR GARAGE. THEY PRODUCE CARBON MONOXIDE...AN ODORLESS...COLORLESS GAS THAT KILLS MORE THAN 500 AMERICANS EACH YEAR. GENERATORS SHOULD BE PLACED OUTSIDE...AWAY FROM DOORS WINDOWS AND VENTS THAT COULD ALLOW CARBON MONOXIDE TO SEEP INSIDE. DO NOT LET YOUR CAR IDLE INSIDE THE GARAGE...EVEN IF THE GARAGE DOOR IS OPEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 PAZ036-056>059-063>066-290300- /O.UPG.KCTP.HW.A.0002.121029T1500Z-121031T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.HW.W.0002.121029T1200Z-121030T1600Z/ FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK- LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG... HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK... LANCASTER 411 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY... * WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES...AND WIDESPREAD...POTENTIALLY LONG-DURATION POWER OUTAGES. Your still up man? Ha, glad I'm not the only one. Reality is finally setting in for me that this is gonna be nuts. The last time I lost power here (Harrisburg) for an extended period of time was during Floyd over a decade ago, and all indications are that the duration and intensity of the wind with this is going to be of a greater magnitude. When I first started following this back on Monday night, I never thought we'd see anything close to the pressures that were being modeled come to fruition, but here we are, inside 36 hrs until things get crazy, and we're still looking at sub 950 central pressures being output. Good luck to all of you in this thread in staying out of harms way over the next few days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Your still up man? Ha, glad I'm not the only one. Reality is finally setting in for me that this is gonna be nuts. The last time I lost power here (Harrisburg) for an extended period of time was during Floyd over a decade ago, and all indications are that the duration and intensity of the wind with this is going to be of a greater magnitude. When I first started following this back on Monday night, I never thought we'd see anything close to the pressures that were being modeled come to fruition, but here we are, inside 36 hrs until things get crazy, and we're still looking at sub 950 central pressures being output. Good luck to all of you in this thread in staying out of harms way over the next few days! Sleep won't be happening much for me. lol. 6Z NAM folks. Each run is getting worse and worse for us. Widespread 30-40KTS/40-50mph sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Holy, model consensus really has zeroed in on curving Sandy directly over our head. New GFS might be one of the worst impacting runs yet wind wise for C-PA. That is a large area of >75 knot winds at 850mb. The wind barb in central PA is reading 85 knots for that hour. CWA wide high wind warning would easily be achieved with that. This is crazy stuff. And actually, MAG that wind barb is 95 kts (~110 mph)! The 6z showed the strongest winds occurring earlier but still had a 90 kt barb overhead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Storm starting to bomb out. Pressure down to 951mb from 960mb at 5:00am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Rainfall becoming more run-of-the-mill now, should avoid significant flooding issues. That said...wind....yikes. Hope I don't blow away walking to class Monday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Pressure down to 951mb at of 0800 advisory. Was 960mb at the 0500 advisory...impressive to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Rainfall becoming more run-of-the-mill now, should avoid significant flooding issues. That said...wind....yikes. Hope I don't blow away walking to class Monday lol I forgot you're now out in State College as I was going ask why you thought that. On the NHC qpf map, my area is now in the 4-6 inch zone. Even there, though, your qpf is in the 3-4 inch zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 I forgot you're now out in State College as I was going ask why you thought that. On the NHC qpf map, my area is now in the 4-6 inch zone. Even there, though, your qpf is in the 3-4 inch zone. Before the showers, 6z NAM QPF doesn't reach 3.00". GFS a little above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yeah, basically nobody is in rainfall that will be terribly excessive at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Before the showers, 6z NAM QPF doesn't reach 3.00". GFS a little above. Yeah, basically nobody is in rainfall that will be terribly excessive at this point. Been reading last couple of days about localized extreme amounts of rain even for us. I guess if a band sets up? Not sure exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Storm starting to bomb out. Pressure down to 951mb from 960mb at 5:00am. wow....that's ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 what was the pressure for the super storm in 1993? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wow...this thing may be sub 950 at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wow...this thing may be sub 950 at landfall. That's unreal. I just assumed the models overdid it. Noting on radar the rain is backing in now....anyone know is the rain we're getting now from Sandy? Or a PRE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 what was the pressure for the super storm in 1993? 963 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 what was the pressure for the super storm in 1993? 960 IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 My grid forecast. MONDAY Rain. High near 52. Windy, with a north wind 17 to 27 mph increasing to 27 to 37 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. MONDAY Night Rain. Low around 42. Windy, with a north wind around 38 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. TUESDAY Rain. High near 46. Windy, with a east wind 32 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. TUESDAY NIGHT Periods of rain before midnight, then showers likely after midnight. Low around 38. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I believe Sandy is pulling an Agnes-like baroclinic transformation ATTM - she'll go crazy for a while me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I believe Sandy is pulling an Agnes-like baroclinic transformation ATTM - she'll go crazy for a while me thinks Look at radar: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Note that heavy band of rain down over mouth of Chesapeake/SE MD/S DE. Wow. Just sitting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 well, i'm about as prepared as i can be, minus i have to go get 2 more cases of beer today and i'm still making ice, but as ready as ready can be/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 My parents were able to move their flight from 1:30 tomorrow to 7 am. They might might be able to get out that early ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 My parents were able to move their flight from 1:30 tomorrow to 7 am. They might might be able to get out that early ... thats good news. i was thinking of that yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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