NortheastPAWx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Rainfall amounts backing off a bit on modeling...seeing 4" at most this morning, some areas near 5". NVM, end of the run tacks on the rest of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Well guys how does GFS look? To me it looks really intense and gets a lot of us northeast of the center....however I am terrible at interpreting maps lol. Those of us who have power will see some intense images out of NYC if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Quiet in here....lol. Here is my first guess. Widespread 25 to 35 mph sustained winds...gusts to 50-55. Heavy rains of 3 to 6 inches, with localized flooding on some creeks and streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Those of us with homes are preparing. I'm sure it'll pick up later this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Upside of being a renter outside of a flood plain....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Upside of being a renter outside of a flood plain....lol lol one of many upsides. I spent the morning at the grocery store (it was PACKED, and absolutely NO water on the shelves), then filled a propane tank, mowed, cleaned out gutters, secured lawn ornaments/furniture. Also visited one of our dogs at the vet. He was admitted to the pet ER last night, he's doing much better today, hope to bring him home tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looking at some of the models - no offense to Zak, but I think the 6"+ is way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looking at some of the models - no offense to Zak, but I think the 6"+ is way overdone. cannot rely on model precip output... in convective bands it doesnt take much to surpass what the models projected... take early last september for example... very strong PWAT anomaly flowing into eastern PA but models were not predicting the 1-2"+/hr rainfall rates we ended up with before the flooding started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 latest AFD... .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AFTERWARD...THE WAITING GAME NEARS ITS GRAND FINALE /WITH RESPECT TO SANDY'S HEAVY RAIN AND LANDFALL LOCATION/ AS SHE BEGINS HER NORTHWEST CURL TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD FROM THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A LARGE SWATH OF INCREASINGLY HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD NNWD WELL AHEAD OF SANDY...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL PA ZONES ON MONDAY. LATEST 00Z-06Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE LANDFALL LOCATIONS...WITH THE MEAN NOW BEING BETWEEN ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY...AND OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MONDAY EVENING. THIS PATH IS VERY OMINOUS FOR THE LARGE POPULATION AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WITH BANDS OF SQUALLS CONTAINING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IMPACTING THE REGION. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADO THREAT NEAR...AND TO THE NORTH OF THE KLNS AND KMDT AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. WIND FIELDS SURROUNDING THE LOW CENTER WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SANDY TAKES A LIKELY TRACK WWD INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PENN. NORTHEAST TO NW WINDS OF 60 PLUS KTS ARE FCST TO BE ONLY ABOUT 2 KFT AGL...WITH THE 50 KT CONTOUR AT 1 KFT AGL. THESE WINDS WILL EASILY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC BY THE HEAVY RAIN-BANDS...BUT LIKELY MOST SEVERELY IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH AND EAST...BEFORE BECOMING SLIGHTLY DAMPENED TWD THE CENTRAL MTNS. HEAVIER QUASI-SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WILL EASILY MIX OUT OCNL GUSTS AROUND 50KTS SHOULD THIS EXPECTED MODEL MEAN TRACK /AND TPCS/ VERIFY. WE POSTED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SE ZONES A SHORT TIME AGO...AND IT WILL RUN FROM 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WED...WITH 4 INCHES OF MORE LOOKING LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL. LOCALIZED MUCH HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 6-10 INCHES ARE ALSO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AS THE HYBRID STORM IN CAPTURED...THEN ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING AND STRONGLY NEG TILT UPPER TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE PLETHORA OF PROBLEMS RELATED TO WIND...RAIN AND POTENTIAL SEVERE CONVECTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW STILL REMAINS FOR THE RIDGES OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE 850 MB WET BULB TEMPS COOL TO JUST UNDER 0C FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MTNS OF WVA. SANDY AND THE UPPER TROUGH CAPTURING IT FROM THE WEST...EVOLVE INTO A LARGE/STACKED LOW ACROSS THE NRN VIRGINIAS OR CENTRAL PENN TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING AND DRIFTING NNE DURING THE MIDWEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS...MIXED WITH SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE RIDGES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MID-WEEK/HALLOWEEN PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 781 WWUS71 KCTP 271905 NPWCTP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 305 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066-280315- /O.NEW.KCTP.HW.A.0002.121029T1500Z-121031T0000Z/ WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD- NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN- JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING- SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR- NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON- CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT... ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD... PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON... MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD... MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO... TROUT RUN...LAPORTE...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG... SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG... BERWICK...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON... CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 305 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. * TIMING...HIGH WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND LAST INTO TUESDAY * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...RAIN SOFTENED GROUND AND MANY TREES STILL HAVING MOST OF THEIR LEAVES...COULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND BRANCHES LEADING TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE OF LONG DURATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 275 WGUS61 KCTP 271906 FFACTP URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 306 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...HEAVY RAIN FROM SANDY WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR FLOODING EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK... .AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE STATE. PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-281915- /O.EXA.KCTP.FA.A.0001.121029T0600Z-121031T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD- NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN- JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING- SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR- NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA- 306 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS EXPANDED THE * FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...BEDFORD...BLAIR...CAMBRIA... CAMERON...CLEARFIELD...COLUMBIA...ELK...FRANKLIN...FULTON... HUNTINGDON...JUNIATA...MCKEAN...MIFFLIN...MONTOUR...NORTHERN CENTRE...NORTHERN CLINTON...NORTHERN LYCOMING... NORTHUMBERLAND...POTTER...SNYDER...SOMERSET...SOUTHERN CENTRE...SOUTHERN CLINTON...SOUTHERN LYCOMING...SULLIVAN... TIOGA...UNION AND WARREN. * FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER 6 INCHES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...POOR DRAINAGE...URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ PAZ056>059-063>066-281915- /O.CON.KCTP.FA.A.0001.121029T0600Z-121031T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- 306 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ADAMS...CUMBERLAND...DAUPHIN...LANCASTER...LEBANON... PERRY...SCHUYLKILL AND YORK. * FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER 6 INCHES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...POOR DRAINAGE...URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Lol I was right in line with what nws put out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looking at some of the models - no offense to Zak, but I think the 6"+ is way overdone. No way. This is a tropical system, which usually over produce compared to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 No way. This is a tropical system, which usually over produce compared to the models. I agree, with PWATs near +3SD given the time of year in association with the system's tropical origins, I would anticipate possible localized rain totals exceeding 10in in parts of southern and eastern Pennsylvania. The long duration of the event will also make this threat a higher likelihood. Mesoscale banding cannot be picked up on operational global models, so that is where people are getting confused when analyzing QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 T minus 48 hours until crap hits the fan. My parents got to town last night and have tickets to fly out!onday at noon. Delta in its awesomeness isn't granting PA airports the storm waive period sp they likely are stranded for until Wednesday at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 About 24hrs till this big girl gets started and 36hrs till hell begins. Buckle up folks we got a wild one coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Lol I was right in line with what nws put out. What else would they put out? You might not have heard but NHC has passed off all watches/warnings to local offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I mean wind speed wise...I was right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I mean wind speed wise...I was right on. Gusts over 60? Probably be a few of those reports around here. The worst part of this is you really don't need that high winds to cause a lot of problems with the saturated ground. We lost a tree down at the end of our property last September in like 40 mph winds due to the ground being so wet. OT, it's still alive, believe it or not. Part of its roots system must still be attached. It's down in the wooded end so we don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looking at some of the models - no offense to Zak, but I think the 6"+ is way overdone. I tend to disagree with you. The structure of the storm, the moisture feed and jet stream alignment will make Sandy a highly efficient rain producer. Also, the storm will be lingering over Central PA for 18 - 22 hours so whoever gets under that stalled western flank of heavy rain is going to get soaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aratonolme Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Any idea as to when the rain will start in the Cumberland county area? Accuweather says 0700 and the NWS says 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Anyone up for a snow chase @ Wisp ski resort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 NAM cuts back QPF to <3.00" north of Harrisburg (Not including the showers Wed/Thu). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Also appears to move the deform band away from MDT and mix a little less wind down. I think that's all unpredictable though so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 .MONDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN. STRONG WINDS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH... INCREASING TO 70 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Saw fleets of power company trucks on I-81 this evening with license plates from Florida from the ones I saw heading same direction... thats the first sign of how serious this is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Saw fleets of power company trucks on I-81 this evening with license plates from Florida from the ones I saw heading same direction... thats the first sign of how serious this is I've lived a lot of places; few power companies are as proactive preparing for storms as PPL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 not Sandy related... but big earthquake in western Canada... mixed reports of 7.7 and 7.1... earthquakes and hurricanes oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Nam cuts back precip, but has favorable landfall location so who cares. It's wait and see at this point, not sure whether it's better to be on north or south side of low for wind but guess we'll see...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 FWIW...21z SREFs show ~40-50% chance of 1 inch or more of snow throughout much of the area Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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