JamieOber Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Holy chit the 18z GFS might push water UP into the lower Susky valley from the Chasapeake. Conewingo Dam would stop it but that raises an interesting question - would that make for really bad flooding right at the dam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Well with these tracks snow is out of the question. Looking at 70mph gusts I'm thinking I'd rather have nothing at this point!!! Hope the south trend continues please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Holy chit the 18z GFS might push water UP into the lower Susky valley from the Chasapeake. That is absolutely impossible. Any surge would have to clear Conowingo and Safe Harbor Dams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I didn't realize the size of Conowingo and it's ability to handle tidal rushes. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I didn't realize the size of Conowingo and it's ability to handle tidal rushes. My bad. No worries. If that were to happen, then Peach Bottom Nuclear #1 & #2 would be flooded and we'd have another TMI on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Big Daddy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow UNV gets under 960mb, I'm sure that would shatter any observed low pressure records.. and i'm sure same would go for a lot of other places. 18z def went towards the Euro lead of a mid-atlantic impact. I was thinking the same thing...and this late into the season. " Really impressive" Was wondering what the recorded current low was. Potter That's hilarious!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I was thinking the same thing...and this late into the season. " Really impressive" Was wondering what the recorded current low was. Potter That's hilarious!!! Thats probably a good question for the PA State Climatologist office up there on campus. The 93 blizzard I think dipped into the high 970s at UNV. Below 960 would be unprecedented. Only other storms I could really think of offhand that might have anywhere near a comparable pressure is '54 Hazel and the '50 great Appalachian storm. Potter, haha.. It's kinda funny cuz Henry has been riding the OTS train with Sandy hard this week citing the -NAO would pop a northeast storm regardless. Which had def been a viable scenario except that said -NAO looks to be ridiculously low enough to actually help make the "thing that just doesn't happen".. happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mag serious question, say it plays out like the EURO shows, what would the NWS CTP put up for us? Would it be an Inland Tropical Storm warning? Or would they go with a high wind warning along with a flood watch? And with Euro track, what would main threat be for us here in CPA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mag serious question, say it plays out like the EURO shows, what would the NWS CTP put up for us? Would it be an Inland Tropical Storm warning? Or would they go with a high wind warning along with a flood watch? And with Euro track, what would main threat be for us here in CPA? Since by the time it gets up this way it'll be merging and transitioning into an extratropical storm.. it'll most likely be the usual wind products, and probably enough for high wind warnings. Wind and especially flooding would be the main threat with a Euro solution. Though wind in areas with alot of foliaged trees plus the saturated ground could make for big issues as well. I do think there's a chance the storm doesn't back in with such pronounced westerly trajectory and/or ends up making landfall further up the coast. And of course if the low ultimately tracks from say NYC to central upstate NY, that would reintroduce the other potential threat that currently resides well southwest on the 12z Euro and 18z GFS. Still a couple days to go before any details can get hashed out with any confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I was going to say, if they go Wind Advisory and Flood watch nobody is going to take this thing seriously lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Dr. Young (PSU professor and self-proclaimed weather weenie) mentioned an interesting thing concerning wind. He said that out here in the hilly/mountainous terrain, the high peaks will create large turbulent eddies that could drive down higher-level wind not normally expected in a flatter region near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Big Daddy! He must have got lost on his trip out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If you're still holding out hope for snow...00z NAM is about the best solution we've seen since Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If you're still holding out hope for snow...00z NAM is about the best solution we've seen since Tuesday. Yep, was thinking the same thing. If extrapolated out, the low would track into NY state, and wrap cold air into a lot of PA I would think. The issue is that it is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If you're still holding out hope for snow...00z NAM is about the best solution we've seen since Tuesday. How plausible is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It only gets down to 976 mb though, would that hurt cold air being pulled down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 How plausible is it? All the mets are saying the NAM is garbage with anything tropical...so probably not very. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Man I hope Euro goes north a bit. I don't wan't this thing crashing into Hatteras lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 How plausible is it? At this point, I'd say not very. If any other model supported the cooler temps, then we'd have a different story. I am curious to see if maybe the higher resolution of the NAM picks up better on dynamic cooling. I mean at UNV we are hovering around 0 at 850 throughout the onset of precip... I don't think the strength of the storm is as important for cold as is the tropical vs. extratropical aspect. Obviously a more tropical system will bring in much warmer air than a mostly transitioned storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC follows models south, has Sandy sitting over Lancaster at 8 pm Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 He must have got lost on his trip out to sea. I know right! I admit though, I would be lying if I didn't like his winter :weenie:ism. If you're still holding out hope for snow...00z NAM is about the best solution we've seen since Tuesday. Yep, and I still think eventhough its the long rang NAM, it has the right general idea with regards to the storm. I just find it hard to believe with such a dynamic setup, you don't receive any snowfall. I also trust the NAM's temperature profile usually more than any other model out there when it comes to winter weather. I'm willing to bet by Saturday, some models will be showing some areas receiving 12"+ , the setup is just perfect IF the storm makes landfall near LI. Yep, was thinking the same thing. If extrapolated out, the low would track into NY state, and wrap cold air into a lot of PA I would think. The issue is that it is the NAM. It might be the long rang NAM, but I really do think it has the right general idea with regards to the colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is my prediction. I can see the southern solution verifying, but I'm going with a somewhat more climatologically favored path. I think the purple areas on my map have the greatest chance at seeing anything more than 6" of snow and the areas of blue a slightt chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 LOL where ya going GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 0z GFS east, way NE then moves SW and bombs near NYC it appears. That's one possibility ... Edit: Landfall on Long Island at 117 hours and 948 MB. Major, major hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 My preliminary thoughts on the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS is trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS is interesting...for you snow guys looks very warm though. Should be cool to have center so close to us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GFS track reminds me of a tractor trailer making a left turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GFS track reminds me of a tractor trailer making a left turn. Then doing a three-point backward turn (if RI was the parking space).Bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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