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Central PA thread - Spring-like weather now, but...


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How close was that tornado to you, eastern?

In other news, we got some beneficial rains Sunday and Monday - I got a total of 1.29, much more than I expected.

I guess the jury is still out on whether we get anything rain from Isaac.

5 day HPC certainly seems to show a chance that this arcs our way.

post-1507-0-60440400-1346206113_thumb.gi

It looks like at the moment we're at least going to see a good influx of very humid tropical air and the potential for increased and perhaps widespread thunderstorm activity by later in the weekend. That alone would suggest the possibility of tropical rains from these storms and maybe severe potential given we'll likely be on the eastern side of whatever's left . As far as any of the traditional impacts like a prolonged rain/wind event from say an in tact but decaying storm core I don't feel that's very likely for us. We'd have to see this thing make a pretty quick turn and really pick up speed to have a chance of seeing anything like that, but the eventual locations of the inland impacts are hardly set in stone. Currently it's trying to prolong itself painstakingly running parallel to the LA coast. This is probably going to be one of those storms that's going to be hard to kill given the very deep, yet broad pressure field. The New Orleans levee system is going to get a stiff and prolonged test from Isaac. I guess one bit of good news is that this is shaping up to rain on a region that desperately needs rain once it moves inland.

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5 day HPC certainly seems to show a chance that this arcs our way.

post-1507-0-60440400-1346206113_thumb.gi

It looks like at the moment we're at least going to see a good influx of very humid tropical air and the potential for increased and perhaps widespread thunderstorm activity by later in the weekend. That alone would suggest the possibility of tropical rains from these storms and maybe severe potential given we'll likely be on the eastern side of whatever's left . As far as any of the traditional impacts like a prolonged rain/wind event from say an in tact but decaying storm core I don't feel that's very likely for us. We'd have to see this thing make a pretty quick turn and really pick up speed to have a chance of seeing anything like that, but the eventual locations of the inland impacts are hardly set in stone. Currently it's trying to prolong itself painstakingly running parallel to the LA coast. This is probably going to be one of those storms that's going to be hard to kill given the very deep, yet broad pressure field. The New Orleans levee system is going to get a stiff and prolonged test from Isaac. I guess one bit of good news is that this is shaping up to rain on a region that desperately needs rain once it moves inland.

i was watching some good footage this am. Jim Cantore being pushed around by the wind. I heard some rainfall estimates are up to 20" maybe? that will definitly put a test on the Levee's and pumping system.

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How close was that tornado to you, eastern?

In other news, we got some beneficial rains Sunday and Monday - I got a total of 1.29, much more than I expected.

I guess the jury is still out on whether we get anything rain from Isaac.

It was about 3-4 miles away. Would have chased it but was at work. Of course... lol

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It was about 3-4 miles away. Would have chased it but was at work. Of course... lol

Yeah, that's how it always is, dammit.

Bring on 40 degree nights, I say.

We broke 50 for the first time since May yesterday am. Sort of unusual for us to not have a reading or two below 50 during the June/July/August time period.

As Elliot Abrams would say, the first advances by the rebels of Autumn against the kingdom of summer.

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Latest HPC take on potential Isaac rainfall.

post-1507-0-57870400-1346434166_thumb.gi

Shows at least a possible general 1-3 inch rainfall over the region, and it might not be counting the whole event in central/eastern PA. As Isaac interacts with a frontal boundary it will provide the oppurtunity for a decent rainfall event as the remaining remnants eventually push along the boundary. CTP isn't too high on any widespread flooding possibilities and I wouldn't be either. All flash flood guidance is very high.. about 3-5 inches for small stream flooding in all the timeframes (1hr, 3hr, 6hr, 12hr, and 24hr) and a good bit more than that for more significant flooding in the headwaters. You can look at those resources HERE and HERE.

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It Gunna rain!! Thanks Olie.

If your back at Shippensburg it's probably a monsoon right now.

Flash Flood watch out for the lower Sus Valley. While overall amounts we get from Isaac remnants + quasi-stationary frontal boundary shouldn't instigate any kind of widespread flooding, there remains the threat for more localized issues with any training/ slow moving cells. With the really high PWATs, any convection is going to just dump rain. And it seems the last couple days that the Sus valley has had a head start with scattered heavier rainfall while alot of the central has just seen cloudy and very humid conditions.

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Got just over 3"last night, road closed in my development due to high water this morning. CTP kind of liking the Lancaster area to be in the bullseye again later today.

This was touched on briefly in the Philly thread with regard to southern New Jersey, and it seems to apply here as well. For most of the summer, the same areas keep getting hit over and over. Not complaining, just wondering though...is there some sort of meteorological reasoning for this?

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It seems FTP has busted here badly today.

I've had rain for all of 2 minutes today (about an hour ago, was very light). Yet we have a flash flood watch and every forecast says "NOW: Showers and storms will move into the area shortly."

It has said that since 7 this morning.

yep crazy. Even yesterday when i looked at the radar, i thought bt 530-6 we would be having heavy rain, minus a couple sprinkles, we had zip!

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