New England Anomalous Events

[Ginx snewx]

Our own private landphoon. Unbelieveable

Yep not boring.

[Ginx snewx]

Hard to remember when I have seen a trace like this in CT

[radarman]

Speaking of anomalous, local interest only but do not see this too often.

That's just sweet!!

For archival purposes, this was the MCV as it moved north and weakened. Even in it's death throes it maintained it's circulation. I don't think it's debatable that this is a fairly rare occurrence.

[Hailstoned]

--1976 "Boston Marathon" heatwave

--May 9-10, 1977

[free_man]

Yes it probably is...top 5 in the past 100 years would likely be:

1. Hurricane of '38

2. 1955 Floods

3. October 2011 Snowstorm

4. December 1989 (if you thought -14 was an impressive departure, spots in NNE had a -20)

5. January 1998 Ice storm

There's a few others you could argue belong in top 5 over the '98 ice storm...but its def top 10 either way. Some others in the past 100 years that def could be worthy are:

-1953 ORH tornado (ridiculous event but obviously tornadoes do not affect a huge area like synoptic events)

-Blizzard of '78

-Hurricane Carol

-Nov 1950 wind storm

-Feb 1934 cold outbreak

-Sept 1953 heat wave

-May 1977 snowstorm

No '91 "perfect storm"? That was super complex and anomalous, maybe more so than most of the ones mentioned above.

[Ginx snewx]

No '91 "perfect storm"? That was super complex and anomalous, maybe more so than most of the ones mentioned above.

Yea perfect storm was a top one too.

[OceanStWx]

My top 5 in order of most anomalous:

1. October 29-30, 2011 snowstorm

2. January 2004 cold

3. MA tornado 6/1/11

4. December 2008 ice storm

5. March 2012 warmth

I could have missed something more obvious, but I did it quickly in my head.

Great event there. To get that kind of ice storm, before cold was really established that year, is impressive. December ice is usually characterized by a super cold air mass in place with precip starting out as FZRA before warming above freezing, or a super cold air mass undercuts the warm air and flash freezes things, especially out in western New England.

You have warm water temps that could have easily tainted the boundary layer cold, diurnal heating of the day, higher sun angle, wind, yet the precip stayed freezing for nearly the duration.

Really fascinating to nowcast the razor's edge events like that can hinge on.

[ORH_wxman]

Yea perfect storm was a top one too.

It was definitely anomalous in the way it formed out on the ocean, but in terms of its actual impact in New England...I'm not sure it would make that list for the past 100 years...def a top 25 maybe...but not top 10.

If we were just talking about Cape Cod, then yeah, easily top 10 there...but quite a bit of New England got what amounted to a nasty fall Nor' Easter.

[Ginx snewx]

It was definitely anomalous in the way it formed out on the ocean, but in terms of its actual impact in New England...I'm not sure it would make that list for the past 100 years...def a top 25 maybe...but not top 10.

If we were just talking about Cape Cod, then yeah, easily top 10 there...but quite a bit of New England got what amounted to a nasty fall Nor' Easter.

It was a function of where you were at the time I guess, like Tornados. I can not recall a storm with that sustained 24 hour intensity other than the 78 Blizz. The height of waves is still a record for a non tropical system. The rogue waves were the biggest I have ever seen, a permanent image.

[tamarack]

Great event there. To get that kind of ice storm, before cold was really established that year, is impressive. December ice is usually characterized by a super cold air mass in place with precip starting out as FZRA before warming above freezing, or a super cold air mass undercuts the warm air and flash freezes things, especially out in western New England.

You have warm water temps that could have easily tainted the boundary layer cold, diurnal heating of the day, higher sun angle, wind, yet the precip stayed freezing for nearly the duration.

Really fascinating to nowcast the razor's edge events like that can hinge on.

MBY had very similar surface temps and qpf as did ORH, but we had only 0.2" accretion. Part of that was how heavily the rain fell, had 90 minutes of 0.4"/hr at one point, but a thinner subfreezing layer was probably the chief difference.

[ORH_wxman]

MBY had very similar surface temps and qpf as did ORH, but we had only 0.2" accretion. Part of that was how heavily the rain fell, had 90 minutes of 0.4"/hr at one point, but a thinner subfreezing layer was probably the chief difference.

That was likely the reason...I'm not sure exactly what the sounding was there, but perhaps you ended up with a slightly less favorable ZR sounding. The precip here was as heavy as I've ever seen in a ZR event, it was basically a downpour...I think ORH ASOS put 0.50" in the bucket or something close in the final hour before it crapped out from freezing over. So I don't think the precip rates were the difference.

We were advecting the lower dewpoints in from NH/ME...but close enough to the coast may have had a little bit of warmer air intruding in and I don't know if it affected your location.

[radarman]

A lot of all time snowfall records were set in the last decade. Considering how far records go back they probably all deserve mention in this thread.

BDL- 1/12/11 & before that 2/12/06

BOS- 2/17/03

BTV- 1/3/10

Also, CON- 2nd & 3rd place 12/7/03 and 10/30/11 (only eclipsed by 1888)

And 2nd place- PVD 1/22/05

[tamarack]

A lot of all time snowfall records were set in the last decade. Considering how far records go back they probably all deserve mention in this thread.

BDL- 1/12/11 & before that 2/12/06

BOS- 2/17/03

BTV- 1/3/10

Also, CON- 2nd & 3rd place 12/7/03 and 10/30/11 (only eclipsed by 1888)

And 2nd place- PVD 1/22/05

Only ones I know of for Maine were in Ft. Kent (32") and CAR (33.1"), from a very limited-extent storm 12/25-27/2005. A station as close as HUL had far less snow than that, 11" with considerable mixing.

Farmington's best for the decade was #4, 26.6" on 2/22-23/2009. However, that COOP recorded 9 events of 18"+ from 2/2001 thru 2/2009 (avg 1 per winter) after having 22 in the previous 107 yr.

[radarman]

Only ones I know of for Maine were in Ft. Kent (32") and CAR (33.1"), from a very limited-extent storm 12/25-27/2005. A station as close as HUL had far less snow than that, 11" with considerable mixing.

Farmington's best for the decade was #4, 26.6" on 2/22-23/2009. However, that COOP recorded 9 events of 18"+ from 2/2001 thru 2/2009 (avg 1 per winter) after having 22 in the previous 107 yr.

BTVs all-timer was similar in that it had a small spatial extent as well.

I looked at Portland but was surprised to see that didn't have anything significant of note in the last decade. In fact, other than March '93 you have to go back over 30 years to get a top 20 snowstorm! Crazy considering the other New England big cities.

[ORH_wxman]

ORH had 3 snowfalls in the top 10 in the past 10 years...but nothing that threatened the top 3.

#6. January 22-23, 2005...24.1"

#9. January 12, 2011........21.1"

#10. Feb 17-18, 2003.......20.8"

We we extend it back to March 2001, then we could add the #8 snowfall at 22.0".

Obviously the October storm shattered all sorts of records for the month of October.

[TalcottWx]

There's been other tor's like that and stronger..not anomolous

[TalcottWx]

Happened to find this on the internet.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..FINAL MID SHIFT..

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

743 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2004

...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -25 AND -45 THROUGH 10 AM...

BOS ITS THE COLDEST SINCE CHRISTMAS 1980 AND BY THE WAY ITS FEELING A

LOT COLDER THAN IT DID THEN WITH WINDS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER. NEW

RERS AT BOS/PVD. AS OF 730 AM NO FURTHER RERS. WE MAY ADD CHH UA

SITE OF -6..WE JUST DONT KNOW THE PRIOR RECORD AND DATE.

EVERY STN IN SNE REACHED ZERO OR BLOW AND THIS IS A VAST AREA OF

COVERAGE OF WIND DRIVEN (>10KT) ZERO OR COLDER IN THE NE USA.

.PATTERN...

COLD WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF NR NORMAL TEMPS NEXT 10 DAYS AS ALBERTA

CLIPPERS FOR THE NEXT WEEK BRING A VARIETY OF DELIGHT FOR WINTER

ENTHUSIASTS. NUMEROUS SRN STREAMERS CONSTANTLY ADVERTIZED BY DAY10

GFS...EVENTUALLY ONE OF THOSE IS GOING TO COME UP THE COAST.

HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PATTERN MAY NOT BE QUITE AS SVR FOR THE NEXT TWO

WEEKS BUT UNTIL WE LOSE CROSS POLAR WHICH REALLY HAS LITTLE SIGN OF

DOING ATTM...WE WILL HAVE BOUTS OF RECURRING STG CAA IN ASSN WITH

CLIPPERS. IN THE NON SNOWCVR REACH OF I95...FROST WILL GO VERY DEEP

AND POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME SERIOUS PROBLEMS IF WE GO SUBZERO NEXT WEEK

WITHOUT SNOWCVR. SO SUNDAYS SNOW IN I95 .. IF IT OCCURS .. COULD

SERVE AS A PROTECTIVE BLANKET.

WIND CHILL WRNG THRU BASICALLY 10AM THEN STEP DOWN TO LESS

THREATNEING WC ADVY.

STILL CONCERNED ABOUT HIGH WIND WARNING BUT FOR NOW JUST EXTENDED

WIND ADVY THRU TONIGHT. HAVE SEEN 45 KT AT MSV.

WXA FOR OUTER CC ONLY...JUST CANT FIRE HEAVY STREAMERS ACROSS THE

CAPE...AT LEAST TO OUR KNOWLEDGE.

RECORDS 1/16/04

LOWS COLDEST HIGHS

BOS -7 2004 435A COLDEST SINCE 12/25/80 7 1994

ORH -12 1994 TIE 0023 6 1994

PVD -6 2004 7 1994

BDL -8 1994 1 1994

CEF -9 1994

MQE -11 2004 435A

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH

CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LOCALLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE

INTERIOR. ALSO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE IFR CEILINGS

AND VISIBILITIES AROUND CAPE COD THIS MORNING. STRONG WINDS ARE THE

MAIN CONCERN TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE SUSTAINED 25KT

WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS NEAR 40KT AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE WARNINGS AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED. STRONG

GALES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TODAY PER MODEL SOUNDINGS

WHICH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 40KT GUSTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...

THEN WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SAT. DECIDED TO INCREASE WINDS

FOR LATER SUN AND MON BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...GFS ACTUALLY HAS

GALES IN THE COLD ADVECTION MON BUT FOR NOW WE WILL BRING WINDS TO

THE HIGHER END OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

HARBOR AND BAY ICE IS AN ISSUE AND WILL BE THRU AT LEAST SATURDAY.

TEMPO WARMUP MONDAY MAY RELIEVE ALONG WITH ICE BREAKERS BUT DEEP

FREEZE REVISITS EARLY NEXT WEEK! THIS HAS IMPACTED SOME BOS HARBOR

TRANSPORATION.

That definitely must have been the year carson beach had ice on it

[HoarfrostHubb]

I remember Christmas 1980

[dryslot]

BTVs all-timer was similar in that it had a small spatial extent as well.

I looked at Portland but was surprised to see that didn't have anything significant of note in the last decade. In fact, other than March '93 you have to go back over 30 years to get a top 20 snowstorm! Crazy considering the other New England big cities.

They usually get eaten alive by the coastal front more times then not they flip to RN

[ORH_wxman]

Thats an awesome AFD from Jan 2004.

[CapturedNature]

I remember Christmas 1980

Probably one of the coldest days in SNE but you wouldn't know it looking at the record books because of the midnight high. If I recall correctly, temps fell all day and were well below zero in the afternoon, especially with the windchill. I always enjoy a good arctic cold day!

Since we're posting discussions from past events, I happen to have this one from the January 2005 Blizzard:

National Weather Service Taunton MA

218 PM EST Sat Jan 22 2005

Probable top ten snowstorm/blizzard for portions of sne is at hand and whereever you are this evening around 7 PM we recommend you be prepared to stay there through at least noon tomorrow

Mesoscale: There will be periods of recovery tonight and we dont know exactly how all the snowfall rates will pan out but if you have to travel, have warm clothes/food and water with you in case an accident slows down travel.

Thunder in DC area ard 1731z possible signature of a developing gravity wave that will modulate snowfall fields in sne this evening. we dont know exactly but advertized 3"/hr this evenings initialo push is highly probable. Thunder also is possible. Currently 3 hr pres Falls up to 8.5 mb at 18z ner Cape May. Suspect we will have a big burst early then a slackening recovery prd sometime late this evening but dont count on it. We just dont know exactly how this will work.

Snow reports: webentry is open for business. Thats the way to get snowfall wind and wind damage reports to us. We are looking for a possible sleet entry into the mix vcnty ack 06-10z but not a big capper.

Skywarn: will be in the building at 4PM for 24 hr assistance-We are lucky to have them!

Snowfall: our 1730z hpc group in house snow fcst is advertizing 30+ Cape Cod with 15" all sne into SE Hillsborough county. We concur, with the possibility excessive frontogenesis and highly ideal snowgrowtth tonight in S NH will allow for 3/hr there as well and maximize the lesser qpf in the colder thickness.

Bliz warning nwd extension considered into NW MA and S NH but attm since its so cold, all the wind will be gradient driven and not expecting enough instability to afford the required "less" than 1/4 MI with gusts 35 mph for 3 hrs. Ie not much transfer! that could change but no nwd extension of blizz wrng attm.

In the end this is 1 foot everywhere minimum with 30+ in bands. One area where it will be difficult to measure but should be puimmeled is Plymouth county and Barnstable county in SE Mass.

Hurricane force wind gusts and power outages: very likely Barnstable/ack and May extend to Plymouth county and mqe.

75 Knots (~85 mph)not out of the question

Records:

Please recall top 10 event occurred Feb 17-18 2003 at bos/pvd and svrl in the 1990S early 2000S. Another likely on the way!

Top 10 snowstorm threshold for the following

Bos 17.3 all time 27.5

Pvd 14.7 all time 28.6

Bdl 15.8 all time 21.0

Orh 19.6 all time 33.0

Fwiw: btv eta still 2" of qpf in pym county for this event and summ5 is not only huge, it keeps ern pym and parts of Barnstable county in big snowfall through about 10 PM Sunday evening.

---Below no change from 1150 AM---

Update:

Hurricane force winds are possible Sun for Cape Cod and Nantucket along with a slower storm departure Sun

We continue to be in awe as we review each model run and evaluate upstream conditions. 12Z eta and gfs are now extremely close on their solutions, especially on the magnitude and track of the 500 mb and surface lows. Both models continue indicate strong height Falls with 500 mb low as it tracks just south of New England tonight and Sun. At the surface, this leads to explosive cyclogenesis off the New Jersey coast tonight, and continuing Sunday as surface low tracks over the benchmark (40N/70W).

Both 12z eta and gfs continuing to indicate a trend of the upper low trying to capture the surface low Sun, as surface pressure pattern shows lots of bagginess in the isobars extending westward from the surface low to the 500 mb circulation. This translates to a slower storm departure, with snow and wind persisting into much of the day Sun, even west portions. Thus, we will extend heavy snow warning and blizzard warning until midday Sun west (Hartford/Springfield) and will continue with 7 PM expiration east (Boston/Cape Cod/Nantucket).

Other change to forecast will be increase our wind forecast. Both 12z eta and gfs indicate hurricane force wind gusts are likely for Cape Cod and Nantucket Sunday, as surface low continues to bomb. definitely a player in the strong deepening rates are the arctic air over the ocean, well south of New England, and surface low tracking over northern wall of gulf stream. Thus, very low static stability aiding bombogenesis. Both eta and gfs indicate sustained winds Sun of 35 to 45 mph across Eastern MA, with hurricane force gusts to 75 mph possible over Cape Cod and Nantucket. Winds of this magnitude will likely result in widespread power outages and possible a life threatening situation for anyone traveling late tonight into Sun.

So, we will update our heavy snow warning and blizzard warning to address these changes. In addition, we will upgrade our storm warnings to a hurricane force wind warning for the waters south and east of Nantucket and Cape Cod. After a complete review of the 12z model data and upstream observations, will issue another update later this afternoon to address any other possible forecast changes. Previous discussion below.

Nocera/Thompson

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Short term (today through tonight): Blockbuster storm on the way and blizzard warnings have now been issued for most of the area.

First, some snow showers continue across Cape Cod Bay, Eastern Cape Cod, and Nantucket early this morning. Light amounts are expected. as the winds turn to the NE then E this morning, the snow showers should drift westward affecting portions of Eastern MA late morning and early afternoon.

Low pressure now in indiana will move E then NE and all models now bring this to near or just inside the benchmark location of 40N 70W at 12z Sun. Its forward progress is slowed by the development of the upper low. Michigan Is looking at up to 20 inches and that is without having tapped Atlantic moisture yet!

Blizzard warning is in effect for all of Eastern MA and areas south of the Mass Pike, Northern CT, and RI. Winds are forecast to reach 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph along the coast and at higher elevations late tonight, and frequent gusts to 35 mph in the rest of the blizzard warning region. With tremendous vertical motion from 00z to 12z tonight all in the snow growth region, snowfall rates of 3-4 inches per hour are expected. Storm totals of 20-30 inches are forecast with highest amounts in the corridor bounded by an area from Boston to Worcester to Attleboro to Plymouth. Amounts in Northern CT and Springfield area should be closer to the 20 inches. The snowfall totals are based on a blend of the eta and gfs qpf forecast, with between a 15-20 to 1 snowfall ratio.

A heavy snow warning for closer to 12-24 inches is forecast for the NW part of the region, which includes NW MA and Cheshire and Hillsborough counties in Southern NH. Winds will be strong there too, but not quite enough for a blizzard for now.

The strongest winds are forecast to transfer downward in a blast just before and around daybreak. Fwc winds are 38 knots sustained at bdl, the highest i can recall seeing. Even if the winds are not quite that strong in the CT Valley, decided on blizzard because an added factor is the extreme cold. Although temperature strictly is not a criteria, at these temperatures getting stuck in a car will be potentially life threatening.

The 06z eta has the low going inside the benchmark which leads to more potential for changeover to sleet and or rain over the islands and Eastern Cape Cod, for a time late tonight, but not before a foot or more occurs there.

Long term (Sunday through Friday):

Models still have some discrepancies, But will continue to blend

between eta/nam and gfs as this storm heads out to sea during

Sunday. However, As the storm continues deepen rapidly and the

pressure gradient increases, Expect the highest winds to occur

during the morning hours especially along the east coast and on Cape

Cod and the islands. Will continue the blizzard warning through

Sunday from Southern Worcester county and around the route 495 belt

as well as Cape Cod and the islands. This is reflected in the wsw

that was issued at 540 AM. Also expect seas over 20 feet over the

east coastal outer waters late tonight and Sunday. The high winds and

seas will roll onshore, Especially on east and north facing beaches.

with the full moon tide, Have issued a coastal flood warning. Mrpsse

suggested a surge of nearly 3 feet for Boston and Nantucket.

statement for this was issued at 610 AM.

Winds will remain high through Sunday night, then will diminish on Monday as the storm moves to newfoundland and a high pressure ridge builds across Northern New England.

A weak cold front still continues to push through Monday night and Tuesday over the ridge, but will be very weak. With little if any moisture to work with, expect just some added clouds and a wind shift more than anything else.

Another N-S Ridge builds across for Tuesday, then another clipper system works across the Great Lakes for Wednesday. 00Z gfs guidance suggesting slightly slower movement on this system, but with fast flow aloft, have kept previous forecast timing for now. Will let the day shift take a look at this, but have kept chance of snow going for Wednesday into Thursday and Thursday night.

Aviation:

Mvfr ceilings have moved into the Cape and coastal Plymouth

conditions along with snow showers. As the wind shifts to the

east, Expect this to spread to the Boston-Providence Corridor by

late morning. Widespread snow from the main storm system will

overspread the region from SW-NE Between 20z and 22z, Rapidly

reducing ceilings and visibilities to ifr with lifr with +sn and

blsn by 03z.

In the short term, storm warnings have been posted for the outer

waters and gales elsewhere. Northeast winds will increase after

midnight to 35-45 kts with gusts 50-55 kts. Expect lowered

visibilities, Near zero at times, In heavy snow. On the far

southern waters south of Nantucket, May Briefly mix with rain,

Freezing rain and sleet as the low makes its closest approach.

In the long term, expect storm warnings for Sunday for all waters except gales for Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay. Winds will slowly diminish Sunday night and Monday, but seas will be very slow to subside. Expect gale conditions through Sunday night, then slowly diminishing to small craft except for the outer waters on Monday. Wna wavewatch model continues small craft criteria seas on the outer waters through Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Box watches/warnings/advisories:

CT, Blizzard warning from 5 PM Saturday until midday Sunday

for ctz002...Ctz003...Ctz004.

MA...Heavy snow warning from 5 PM Saturday until midday Sunday for

maz002...Maz003...Maz004...Maz008...Maz010...Maz026.

blizzard warning from 5 PM Saturday until 6 PM Sunday for

maz005...Maz006...Maz007...Maz012...Maz013...Maz014...

maz015...Maz016...Maz017...Maz018...Maz019...Maz020...

maz021...Maz022...Maz023...Maz024.

coastal flood warning from 7 AM Sunday until 2 PM Sunday

for maz007 maz015...Maz016...Maz019...Maz022...Maz023...

maz024.

blizzard warning from 5 PM Saturday until midday Sunday for

maz009...Maz011.

NH...Heavy snow warning from 5 PM Saturday until midday Sunday

for nhz011...Nhz012...Nhz015.

RI...Blizzard warning from 5 PM Saturday until 6 PM Sunday for

riz001...Riz002...Riz003...Riz004...Riz005...Riz006...

riz007...Riz008.

marine...Hurricane force wind warning anz254-255.

storm warning anz250. Gale warning anz230>237.

storm warning May be required Sun anz231>235-237.

Short term, gaf

long term, Evt

[ORH_wxman]

That's an awesome discussion too...that had to have been Drag's text before the short term and long term part.

The PYM and Barnstable county jackpot idea worked out very well.

[CapturedNature]

That's an awesome discussion too...that had to have been Drag's text before the short term and long term part.

The PYM and Barnstable county jackpot idea worked out very well.

I actually have a bunch of stuff from that event....I should throw them up somewhere since it was such an anomalous event. I didn't even know I had them.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Awesome

Kind of mundane here iirc

[ORH_wxman]

Awesome

Kind of mundane here iirc

You were probably just west of the best stuff...there was a pretty sharp E/W gradient in ORH county...FIT had over 20" and ORH had 2 feet but just 8-10 miles west had like 14-16".

[nzucker]

I think I remember getting about 14" from Jan 2005 down here. Does that sound right, Will?

[HoarfrostHubb]

14-15" sounds about right

Not on my computer attm to look up the storm reports

[CoastalWx]

I remember those AFDs like yesterday

[HoarfrostHubb]

14-15" sounds about right

Not on my computer attm to look up the storm reports

Gardner had 22", KFIT 20.4, Westminster had 23.4"

But Ashburnham only had 14

Maybe I had 20".... did not measure then...

[wxsniss]

My favorite Walt Drag AFD in my time in Boston... Jan 22-23, 2005 blizzard:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE 5 SHORT TERM..

National Weather Service Taunton MA

752 AM EST Sun Jan 23 2005

Blizzard of 2005 in progress as we are now in the worst portion of this storm!!!

Short term (today through tonight): Record setting snowfall progged for Boston in a storm that should fall short of the bliz of 78 in the severity and duration of coastal flooding but overall we have just reviewed kocin uccellini vol ii p495 snowfall graphic and only somewhat less extensive 2-3 foot siege but this is dangerous and close to bliz of 78 snowfall!!!

Ku storm, comparing favorably aerial coverage 2 Ft plus, wait for final. And all this in 24 hours!!!!!

Pvd tipped it to blizz. Logan Now bliz. Please see wsw for recent details on the 8/hr band dropping swd thru Mass!

Power outages increasing. Pine trees laden with snow on S coast. inflatable dome for soccer stadium collapsed in pym county.

This is it for severity! its now. Combo S+, bs/ds nly winds of 35 to 55 kt with iso gust 70 kt, power outages. You see how bdl psf came back down. Eta/gfs on track with omega.

6 Foot drifts on Oak Bluffs per em!

Cli stats kudos for gathering/updating, neal strauss!

Below from the early morning St post

Blizzard of historic proportions continues this morning. Surface low is now over the benchmark location of 40N 70W with a pressure of 986 mb, still deepening. Winds have begin to pick up with several locations reporting gusts to 40 to 50 knots in eastern areas and 30 to 40 knots in western areas. Scattered power disruptions have now been reported on Cape Cod and expect much worse conditions there as today progresses.

First, wind. Eta shows 925 mb winds of 70-75 knots with very sufficient sfc-925 mb lapse rate to bring these wind gusts to the surface between 18-21z this afternoon around eastern half of Cape Cod, Nantucket, and the waters east of there. This means the potential exists for 80 mph gusts. That, combined with sustained winds of 40-50 mph for much of the day there will undoubtedly cause power lines to come down as well as some structural damage possible to homes.

Next, snow. A persistent band of snowfall has occurred much of the night across Hillsborough County NH and expect high snowfall totals there from that. Another concentrated area has been to the north of Boston where amounts in Billerica already were 20 inches, and along the south coast where 20 inches have occurred from New Bedford to Falmouth. Lesser amounts have been reported, only about 8 inches in the Hartford area so far.

However, water vapor imagery has been showing the development of a closed upper level low pressure system in northeast New Jersey. snowfall has dramatically increased across Long Island and this was spreading northward into Connecticut at 430 AM. Thus snow totals should reach the 16-24 inches originally forecast for Western MA and Northern CT. A persistent snow band has been feeding in from Massachusetts Bay to the Boston area and on SW to the Norwood area. heavy snow also was moving north into south coastal Rhode Island shortly before daybreak. As a result, have increased snowfall totals to 28-38 inches across all of Eastern MA including Cape Cod. isolated 40 inch amounts are possible in this region. Nantucket Changed briefly to heavy rain, went back to snow, and is now rain. will get lots of snow backlash so AM keeping 12-22 inches there.

The record snowfall for Boston is 27.5 inches set on Feb 17-18 2003. The forecast is for this to be broken, although due to the banded structure of the snow, amounts can be highly variable over short distances and it is possible that it could not quite make it.

850 Mb temps cool to -16C to -18C tonight and after the main snow area departs, AM still looking for ocean effect snow showers to produce a few additional inches on the outer Cape. Skies will clear in western and central areas allowing temperatures to plummet to below zero again. Wind chills will approach advisory levels, the day shift will assess that threat.

Coastal flooding, a coastal flood warning remains in effect until 1 PM for the east coast of Massachusetts. With seas of 25 to 35 feet, a storm surge near 3 Ft, and winds exceeding 50 knots, there could be structural damage from moderate coastal flooding around the time of high tide within a few hours of 10-11 AM this morning. please refer to the actual coastal flood warning statement for further details on this.

Long term (Monday through Saturday):

Have continued a chance of snow showers Monday morning over the Cape

and Nantucket as models keep north to northwest trajectory and arctic

air over the water allowing ocean effect snow bands to continue.

winds will finally diminish over the Cape and islands as well. Expect

winds to begin to back to West Monday afternoon, Which will shut off

the ocean effect snow.

High pressure ridge builds across Northern New England during Monday. Another cold front works through central Canada on the northwest upper flow, approaching Northern New England Monday night, then crossing the region on Tuesday. Models continue to suggest little if any moisture with this front, so only expecting clouds and a wind shift with this feature. The front pushes off the coast by Tuesday afternoon, followed by another N-S Oriented ridge.

A clipper approaches Lake superior by 00z Wednesday, but the models are having timing issues with this system, but have kept chance snow going for Wednesday into Thursday. Beyond this, medium range suite is again having issues with the position of a high building in from Canada. Appears that the operational gfs is trying to build the high in further south than some other models. considering the trend from yesterday, have removed mention of chance snow for Thursday night through Friday night, so have a dry forecast going through the remainder of the long range.

Aviation:

Lifr conditions due to heavy snow and blowing snow through the

morning, Slowly improving north and west of orh after 18z and most

of Eastern MA and RI by around 21z. Continued blowing and drifting

snow will likely impact airport operations through the day. Ifr with

local lifr conditions due to bands of heavy snow and blowing snow

will persist into this evening for sites on Cape Cod, Marthas

Vineyard And Nantucket. Strong wind gusts will cause considerable

low level mechanical turbulence.

Hurricane force gusts to 70 kts are expected late this morning and

afternoon across the outer coastal waters and even Cape Cod Bay and

Nantucket Sound. Elsewhere, Anticipate storm force winds. Seas are

expected to continue to build to between 25 and 35 Ft across the

outer coastal waters. Coastal flooding is expected around the time

of this mornings high tide due to a projected 3 foot surge and the

wave action. Although the astronomical tide is relatively modest,

9.8 Feet at Boston, We believe the large breakers will elevate this

event toward the high end of moderate, With some structural damage

possible.

In the long term, will be continuing gale warnings for most waters though the winds will finally be diminishing with small craft conditions for Boston Harbor, Narragansett Bay and some of the south sounds. Expect winds to continue to diminish, but the seas will be slower to respond so will have small craft seas going through Tuesday night for most waters including Cape Cod Bay. Will also have some small craft gusts on the outer waters with the approach of the next front Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Box watches/warnings/advisories:

CT, Blizzard warning from 4 PM Saturday until 1 PM Sunday for

ctz002...Ctz003...Ctz004.

MA...Heavy snow warning from 4 PM Saturday until 1 PM Sunday for

maz002...Maz003...Maz004...Maz008...Maz010...Maz026.

blizzard warning from 4 PM Saturday until 6 PM Sunday for

maz005...Maz006...Maz007...Maz012...Maz013...Maz014...

maz015...Maz016...Maz017...Maz018...Maz019...Maz020...

maz021...Maz022...Maz023...Maz024.

coastal flood warning from 7 AM Sunday until 1 PM Sunday for

maz007...Maz015...Maz016...Maz019...Maz022...Maz023...

maz024.

blizzard warning from 4 PM Saturday until 1 PM Sunday for

maz009...Maz011.

NH...Heavy snow warning from 4 PM Saturday until 1 PM Sunday for

nhz011...Nhz012...Nhz015.

RI...Blizzard warning from 4 PM Saturday until 6 PM Sunday for

riz001...Riz002...Riz003...Riz004...Riz005...Riz006...

riz007...Riz008.

marine...Hurricane force wind warning 1 PM Sunday for anz231...

anz232...Anz254...Anz255. Storm warning remainder of coastal

waters.

Short term, gaf/rmt/drag

long term, Evt