HoarfrostHubb Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 You think we stay dry most if not all day? I hope so. My lawn is a jungle and I need to mow. Should have yesterday, but it was so gross out. I need a sunny, hot, dry few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 I think the threat is pretty interesting back here. Looks like a very active day at least. Isolated severe, heavy rains, a few rounds of storms. Can't rule out an isolated tornado either given how the hodographs look with increasing LLJ. Wow that got my attn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Wow that got my attn Early start in ct and western mass. Storms developing by noon in some areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 maybe we can actually have some real flash flooding today and not just 6 inches of water standing under an underpass Early start in ct and western mass. Storms developing by noon in some areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Early start in ct and western mass. Storms developing by noon in some areas? You think that early? I don't know how well that line holds up. I guess it could if we heat up, but we also have WAA aloft at 500mb. I was thinking some of that hits more westerm MA and VT, but maybe daytime heating sparks the line up further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Seems as if tropical like low top showers firing in srn CT right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 You think that early? I don't know how well that line holds up. I guess it could if we heat up, but we also have WAA aloft at 500mb. I was thinking some of that hits more westerm MA and VT, but maybe daytime heating sparks the line up further south. Okx sounding was pretty unstable with next to no cin. With weak height falls getting underway think we pop early. Impressive TCU and CB ALQDS here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 i'm liking the moisture axis and low level jet placement... nj to ct is going to get dumped on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 nice storm starting to fire just west of hartford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Okx sounding was pretty unstable with next to no cin. With weak height falls getting underway think we pop early. Impressive TCU and CB ALQDS here Yeah it was. To me, this looks like a Ginx FFW deal in some areas like in ERN NY into adjacent Berkshires and CT if we get training because winds aloft are stronger today so storms may not hang around as long as they did up in western MA and NH yesterday. I suppose later on when the LLJ increases..some wet micros or a few bows could develop. I just don't have a feel for any substantial severe aside from the normal inherent tstm threats. There is still a weak boundary across the area so it may develop rounds of storms across the region...my guess is maybe NW CT towards Albany/Berks/VT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 nice storm starting to fire just west of hartford That's probably related to whatever is popping cells along the south coast. A little elevated instability coming in with a good theta-e push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Just got in from a gross run (76.4/73). Sun pokes through clouds that look like they could open up at any point. I'm not expecting much more than rain, but it sure beats just sitting here in mank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Drought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Already stuff firing in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 The SREFs seem to like western CT this aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 that lines of storms in new york is starting to look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 They'll be a shortwave moving in tonight, so that may help keep the shwrs and tstms going..especially when acting on such deep low level moisture. I can't say how widespread it will be, but it helps having a s/w move through to sustain any activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Wow where did that come from. An instantaneous gust that lasted a couple of seconds to at least 40. twigs and leafs flew. Chaotic sky with the low deck screaming NE, upper deck meandering SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 The 15z RAP sounding for BDL actually doesn't look too bad nor do the next several hours...obviously besides the fact mlvl lapse rates blow and shear is meh. Anyways Cape profile actually doesn't look all too bad, thanks in part to an abundance of llvl moisture and that LLJ really cranks to as much as 35 knots! Will be interesting to see what that line does as it progresses eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Wow where did that come from. An instantaneous gust that lasted a couple of seconds to at least 40. twigs and leafs flew. Chaotic sky with the low deck screaming NE, upper deck meandering SE. That little orange pixel is right over my house on the RI border. That was cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 The 15z RAP sounding for BDL actually doesn't look too bad nor do the next several hours...obviously besides the fact mlvl lapse rates blow and shear is meh. Anyways Cape profile actually doesn't look all too bad, thanks in part to an abundance of llvl moisture and that LLJ really cranks to as much as 35 knots! Will be interesting to see what that line does as it progresses eastward. That line in NY state is really developing nice north of Albany. I pegged that earlier for more VT and the Berks, but it may develop more to the south with time. We'll need all the CAPE we can get with the mid levels, but Ryan's LLJ may help later on. Overnight, we have that s/w to move in. While it's not everything...forcing from the mid and upper levels is key during overnight periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Getting a couple good wind gusts here with the intensifying PG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 That line in NY state is really developing nice north of Albany. I pegged that earlier for more VT and the Berks, but it may develop more to the south with time. We'll need all the CAPE we can get with the mid levels, but Ryan's LLJ may help later on. Overnight, we have that s/w to move in. While it's not everything...forcing from the mid and upper levels is key during overnight periods. For tonight I think it would be northern areas that would have the better shot...closer to the s/w and to the stronger dynamics working in. I think the LLJ will really work here to get action forming, already seeing a very solid CU field outside. If mid-level lapse rates were much steeper I could see that compensating a bit for the lack of shear but like you said, we'll need all the Cape we can get to at least create a buoyant enough atmosphere to help lift parcels as high and vigorously as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Is that line developing a cold pool of some sort? Latest mesoanalysis has an area of 6 C/KM mlvl lapse rates. \ Anyways shear is really pumping up (llvl) and helicity starting to increase as well. Also pretty interesting to note not too far of to our west 500mb winds have increased to 30 to even 35 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 some nice towers going up in the western sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Is that line developing a cold pool of some sort? Latest mesoanalysis has an area of 6 C/KM mlvl lapse rates. \ Anyways shear is really pumping up (llvl) and helicity starting to increase as well. Also pretty interesting to note not too far of to our west 500mb winds have increased to 30 to even 35 knots. I'm still not that excited about severe, but we'll see if the LLJ can do anything. Having high dews is a plus anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 I'm still not that excited about severe, but we'll see if the LLJ can do anything. Having high dews is a plus anyways. Yeah severe may be a bit meh but some areas are going to pick up a quite a bit of rainfall today so flash flooding is probably still the #1 concern here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 I'm still not that excited about severe, but we'll see if the LLJ can do anything. Having high dews is a plus anyways. just heavy rain and some 20-30mph wind with that line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Yeah severe may be a bit meh but some areas are going to pick up a quite a bit of rainfall today so flash flooding is probably still the #1 concern here. just heavy rain and some 20-30mph wind with that line Well not exactly referring to that line per se, but heavy rains will be an issue. Precip loading with increased low level jet will aid in gusty winds in stronger cells later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 best chance of severe I would think is in CNY where they are getting good sun in front of the main forcing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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