LocoAko Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Jake, what do you think for timing? Oh gosh - putting me on the spot! I would say as a rough guess that things start popping around 3PM and quickly merge into bowing segments that last through the rest of the evening (and contain the worst of the wind) - even a 5% is still a very 'isolated' tornado risk. This MCS did exactly what we needed it to. Not only did it moisten the boundary layer to lower LCL heights but it will help slow the northern progression of the warm front and contribute to frontogenesis along it, hence the tornado risk area being shifted further south. Now we wait (and try to get work done and probably fail at it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Loud thunder, lightning and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Oh gosh - putting me on the spot! I would say as a rough guess that things start popping around 3PM and quickly merge into bowing segments that last through the rest of the evening (and contain the worst of the wind) - even a 5% is still a very 'isolated' tornado risk. This MCS did exactly what we needed it to. Not only did it moisten the boundary layer to lower LCL heights but it will help slow the northern progression of the warm front and contribute to frontogenesis along it, hence the tornado risk area being shifted further south. Now we wait (and try to get work done and probably fail at it). What time do you see things shutting off? Models are very split on this. RAP/GFS move precip out by 11, SREFS hold on until 2-3 am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Oh gosh - putting me on the spot! I would say as a rough guess that things start popping around 3PM and quickly merge into bowing segments that last through the rest of the evening (and contain the worst of the wind) - even a 5% is still a very 'isolated' tornado risk. This MCS did exactly what we needed it to. Not only did it moisten the boundary layer to lower LCL heights but it will help slow the northern progression of the warm front and contribute to frontogenesis along it, hence the tornado risk area being shifted further south. Now we wait (and try to get work done and probably fail at it). Thanks, lol. Didnt mean to put you on the spot....im just trying to learn how to turn just reading the potential in the maps into useful info if possible, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sun is trying to break out now after the morning shower, destabalization here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Had a few CTGs here with very loud thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Now we wait (and try to get work done and probably fail at it). This. ----- Upton's short, but sweet disco. SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE LIKELY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS CAPE VALUES INCREASE UP TO 3500 J/KG. MAIN THREATS REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...MAY DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.5 INCHES INTO THIS EVENING AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH LOCAL URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 That cell really pumped up as it got closer to Queens. Heavy rain and thunder now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Just some heavy rain and a few rumbles of thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The Sun is peaking now. Here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Rain with some rumbles of thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sun popping its head out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 just had a heavy rain - lightning - thunder pass through cooled temp down to 70 - going to be interesting to see if we can reach the 90's later - but once the sun breaks through temps will rise quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 12z NAM brings the heart of the storms through NNJ and near NYC between 0z and 3z. Similar to the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 We still have at least a couple hours of mostly cloudy conditions before we begin to really destabilize. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_PA/recentvis.html 75/71 and OVC here in CNJ. Had a brief shower about an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 12z NAM shifts south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 12z NAM shifts south Cant ask for a better run from the NAM. Has the best storms directly over NYC. RAP is pretty similar as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Nice warm front placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Cant ask for a better run from the NAM. Has the best storms directly over NYC. still early to say what happens, but this trend of models shifting south with convective events seems to be showing up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Here comes the higher dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Cant ask for a better run from the NAM. Has the best storms directly over NYC. RAP is pretty similar as well. How about the immediate NYC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The anticipated model shift south has occured. I think SPC saw this coming which is why they moved the mod risk as far south as they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 9z SREF shifted south to some extent. Significant tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The anticipated model shift south has occured. I think SPC saw this coming which is why they moved the mod risk as far south as they did. Has been like that so far this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 How about the immediate NYC area? NAM has the best storms right over NYC and vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Just glancing at some morning stuff -- this is a terrific set up for organized convection and damaging winds in our area..probably one of the better ones of the last few years. Effective shear at 21z is over 40 kts throughout the area with impressive surface based instability. As long as some convection can initiate this afternoon to our north and west, it should have no problem riding the height gradient and should mature into an MCS moving directly into high instability and more than favorable shear...supporting the threat for widespread damaging winds where it tracks..likely from NE PA into N NJ, SE NY, and the NYC Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 SREF for Derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Cant ask for a better run from the NAM. Has the best storms directly over NYC. RAP is pretty similar as well. it's interesting how the models have been underestimating the southward extent to morning convection recently. After the models have digested this in their 12z runs, the PM threat has moved a little further south each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Sun coming out now! Ugh why do I have work today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 SREF and NAM came in looking pretty good. Highest tornado potential looks to be in the southern NY region. Wouldn't be surprised to see some brief reports from that area. Helicity looks a little stronger as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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