Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 With just a little over an hour of sun in PA, their parameters are booming and propigating east. SPC outlook in about a half hour should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 dews in the low 70's are whats feeding a lot of the instability on the soundings, and yeah, tons of liquid potential here. If any cells decide to train, epic flash flooding possible. Whoever ends getting hit with the best stuff will probably have near zero visibility during the peak of the storm for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I can't speak for everyone here, but a tornado is the last thing I want to see in this highly populated region. Damaging winds are probably the best you can get here without too much destruction. Now SNY is different. If I see some hooks ahead of the line later, I'm headed north no matter what the circumstance. Since SmokeEater is chasing outside today, can you announce estimated gate-to-gate shear velocities in knots for any supercell in this area with decent rotation? Would be appreciated. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Nice plume of SBCAPE heading towards the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Whoever ends getting hit with the best stuff will probably have near zero visibility during the peak of the storm for them. If a few discreet cells form or if something in the line gets going rain wrapped tornados are gonna be a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The directional shear might not be enough for tornadoes, but if we can get localized backing north or northwest of the city, where the surface winds locally turn to the south instead of southwest, that's where you have to watch out. This is where surface based helicity can locally be enhanced. A widespread tornado event is unlikely given the primarily west of south surface winds. well said dougie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This seems like the kind of day that after a wall cloud moves overhead, your stuck in the green rain sheild with visibility down to a few yards. Could be very, very dangerous for motorists in areas with large trees/limbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Since SmokeEater is chasing outside today, can you announce estimated gate-to-gate shear velocities in knots for any supercell in this area with decent rotation? Would be appreciated. Thanks. I'll be at work until 5pm or so, but Ill try my best since I dont have access to my "fancy" software. BTW-What thread is he in. Interested in where he may set up shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 well said dougie Thanks! I still definitely think it's possible that there are a couple to a few tornado reports today since I do think we'll see some localized backing...models have advertised that. But I'd be surprised if we saw more than 3 or 4 reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'll be at work until 5pm or so, but Ill try my best since I dont have access to my "fancy" software. BTW-What thread is he in. Interested in where he may set up shop. I'm heading to Scranton. PA to start, so I may stay in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Thanks! I still definitely think it's possible that there are a couple to a few tornado reports today since I do think we'll see some localized backing...models have advertised that. But I'd be surprised if we saw more than 3 or 4 reports. This is going to do plenty of damage without the tor 70 to 90mph winds easily attainable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Another thing to note is that if (big IF) there happens to be a tornado on the ground, it really doesn't matter too much what EF strength it is. An EF0-EF1 has the potential to be extremely dangerous around these parts. Have to remember that this isn't the Plains. Take advantage of the plethora of dual pol data we have avaible these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I'm heading to Scranton. PA to start, so I may stay in here. Okay cool. Good luck with today. Once I get home, Ill only be 2 minutes away from the NY border. If anything looks decent up north, I'll try and shoot up and probe around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I still think we get a tornado watch and a few warnings in the area, if nothing else as a precaution. People in this region don't really know what severe weather really is. I can't tell you how many of my friends have seen some straight line wind damage and thought that a tornado had gone through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It is early yet, but both the 15Z and 16Z obs showed slightly backed winds in a region from Sussex County into Passaic County along with what appears to be a slight pressure trough extending down through Morris County toward Somerset County. (For whatever reason the graphic just updated and removed a bunch of the obs, but the features are still evident here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Another thing to note is that if (big IF) there happens to be a tornado on the ground, it really doesn't matter too much what EF strength it is. An EF0-EF1 has the potential to be extremely dangerous around these parts. Have to remember that this isn't the Plains. Take advantage of the plethora of dual pol data we have avaible these days. But it sure has felt a bit like the Plains in NYC metro since 2006 with about 8-9 reported EF0-EF2 tornadoes in such a small radius. Even in the Plains, the return period of a tornado for any given location is several centuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 85/74 now and still mostly cloudy here. It's only going to take a couple hours of diurnal heating to spike instability parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looks like the storms firing over Lake Erie may be the beginning of the action heading east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looks like the storms firing over Lake Erie may be the beginning of the action heading east. Timing makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 But it sure has felt a bit like the Plains in NYC metro since 2006 with about 8-9 reported EF0-EF2 tornadoes in such a small radius. Even in the Plains, the return period of a tornado for any given location is several centuries. The northeast has been under the gun quite a bit lately. Just look at the EF-2 that went through Springfiled, MA last year. I think we are beginning to see a pattern shift for whatever reason with the nastiest weather on a line from SE Texas NE through TN, KY, AL and then up into the Mid-Atlantic and northeast. I hope we never trully have a tornado outbreak up this way, but it doesn't seem all that far fetched anymore. I would think the marine influince is a major reason why severe weather is so rare up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Northern NJ, SE NY and SW CT look like a prime target for damaging winds tonight and isolated tornadoes. The time-frame looks like 5 p.m. to 10 p.m., happening earliest in areas like Sussex and Orange Counties. Seeing some impressive data at the 00z time-frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 CU developing in OH/PA Might see some MD's soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 I was thinking we would have a watch out by 1PM but that looks like it won't be happening at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Still having trouble really clearing out but probably doesn't matter with the Airmass moving in. Dews are impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 12z SPC WRF drives a massive MCS into NJ and NYC...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensō Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 This is one time I feel fortunate to live in NEPA. I barely even have to leave the house to chase today. With the poor low-level shear I'm not expecting a big show though, more worried about losing power for days and days. Even with a generator that'd be a bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The northeast has been under the gun quite a bit lately. Just look at the EF-2 that went through Springfiled, MA last year. I think we are beginning to see a pattern shift for whatever reason with the nastiest weather on a line from SE Texas NE through TN, KY, AL and then up into the Mid-Atlantic and northeast. I hope we never trully have a tornado outbreak up this way, but it doesn't seem all that far fetched anymore. I would think the marine influince is a major reason why severe weather is so rare up here. We have seen multiple tornado warnings in and around NY metro the last 10-15 years. Defintiely more frequently then we had in a long time prior to that. Heck we had 3 or 4 in 2010 alone and actually got some touch downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Very impressive increase. Derecho params are up to 10 in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 12z SPC WRF drives a massive MCS into NJ and NYC...wow. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 What time should the line make it to the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.