yoda Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 That thing is huge...mentioning tornadoes as well, along with widespread/significant damaginng winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 mod risk... 45% hatched from CT Valley points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM OH TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MID-MS VALLEY NEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT/DERECHO ON THU AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST... ..SYNOPSIS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE SEWD AND REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY FRI...WITH A MODERATELY FAST ZONAL FLOW REGIME EXISTING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NEWD IN THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. A SERIES OF WEAK CYCLONES SHOULD BE PREVALENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL INTERSECT A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS. IN THE WEST...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ..MID-MS/OH VALLEYS TO THE NORTHEAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...SUPPORTED BY AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD RETARD THE NERN ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES BREED UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE THE FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY ANCHOR. AN EXPANSIVE UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY 90S/60S SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY THU AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG. A LARGE SWATH OF 30-50 KT 700-500 MB WLYS WILL OVERLAP THIS INSTABILITY...AND WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMBINING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...THIS SETUP WILL YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS /POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT/ WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO RISK SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH AND STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH PINPOINTING THIS CORRIDOR IS DIFFICULT GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF PRECEDING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...IT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY FORM WITHIN A PERSISTING WAA REGIME THU AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 whoa baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wow mod risk for all. This is what we live for. Wx extremes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 mod risk... 45% hatched from CT Valley points west. Looks like it stops right before Blizz's street. Too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wiz is going to go nuts... hope he doesnt have a softball game to do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wow mod risk for all. This is what we live for. Wx extremes enjoy your stratiform rain tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wow mod risk for all. This is what we live for. Wx extremes Looks like it's JUST west of you. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 enjoy your stratiform rain tomorrow yup, def. misses his area to the south and west. Probably not even any thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Poor Blizz taking all the heat when all he wants is extreme wx for all. Regardless of if it hits Tolland or not, sounds like a damaging day for many. What is the timing looking like and does Friday still look interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wow euro puts the bullseye on NW CT, SW MA right up to the backdoor of springfield. They sure dont need another damaging event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Everything continues to look impressive for the CT River Valley and points southwest. I'm interested to see what the Euro does. I do think we will see a tornado threat develop on the northern axis on the best instability/theta-e ridge where the strongest shear and low level backed winds exist. I think from EWR points south the threat is more of a damaging MCS that approaches later in the day. This are pretty impressive values for the Northeast. I wouldn't focus so much on the location of this bullseye, so much as what it is saying about the environment near the warm front/triple point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Everything continues to look impressive for the CT River Valley and points southwest. I'm interested to see what the Euro does. I do think we will see a tornado threat develop on the northern axis on the best instability/theta-e ridge where the strongest shear and low level backed winds exist. I think from EWR points south the threat is more of a damaging MCS that approaches later in the day. Agreed completely. CT river valley from Springfield south is my target area for a possible tornado threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I would start paying attention to the SREF trend over the next few runs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Pretty impressive looking for wrn ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Can anybody confirm when the last day 2 Mod Risk was in the NE, if ever?...On wikipedia, 5/31/98 is listed as the only High risk day ever issued in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Euro looked good for se ny into western ct and even cef but looked like a later arrival? Friday looks good or SNE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 enjoy your stratiform rain tomorrow Looks like your warm front call will bust by 50-100 miles sorry. Enjoy your cap while we TOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 About as impressive of a sounding as you'll see in New England that coincides with the forcing for convective initiation. 12z NAM near Waterbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Those SREFs are serious business 24 hrs out. That sig tornado ingredients parameter works well. Tomorrow night could be fun too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Holy ****...kev nailed this a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Man looks like CT Valley is ground zero. 10-15 minute drive to chaos tomorrow appears like it's in the cards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Looks like your warm front call will bust by 50-100 miles sorry. Enjoy your cap while we TOR it still looks like it's going to hang up just to your SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I like Dutchess County tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Chasers can meet at Ryans house ..Ground 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Well it's safe to say I'm slightly excited now, this looks like something even the coast can't kill(knock on wood) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Chasers can meet at Ryans house ..Ground 0 I would use SWF as a staging area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 We all await the dramatic return of Wiz at some point this afternoon, 40 in hand and completely fired up ! can't wait to see what he has tomorrow afternoon instead of chasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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