CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 You believe the WRF for today with storms ripping down from Mass thru CT? Seems odd That looked weird on the SPC WRF. I suppose srn VT and maybe Berks can't be ruled out, but that model looked aggressive. The SREFs yesterday were aggressive too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Lapse rates are good tomorrow over srn areas. This could be one of those more uncommon busy days across s coastal areas perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 New SPC outlook has 30% wind probs to the MA/VT/NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Lapse rates are good tomorrow over srn areas. This could be one of those more uncommon busy days across s coastal areas perhaps? They seem to do better later in July into August (based on my recollection) than the interior does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 They seem to do better later in July into August (based on my recollection) than the interior does Well maybe not better, but SSTs are warmer now so the marine layer is less pronounced. Euro is really slow with the front which would favor areas more north, but today's convection and leftover clouds or boundaries will probably have a say on where the front ends up tomorrow. Looking at things today, I can't rule out a line of storms moving into nrn MASS. 500mb temps are warm though which will limit things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Looks like a good slug of moisture with some embedded cells getting ready to move thru here with some beneficial rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ---1300Z UPDATE--- REMNANTS OF MCS MOVEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL WORK THE AIRMASS OVER A LITTLE BIT...IT WILL NOT CHANGE THINGS TOO MUCH. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS ROUGHLY 3000J/KG WORTH OF CAPE TO WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON. AS BOUNDARY GETS NEARER TO CWA...SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALSO. THIS LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP TO BE A BUSY DAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY NOW THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. Bumped Pop to 80% chance of severe today and this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 3000 CAPE in Maine? Don't know about that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Still chances of large (2.0" hail)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Still chances of large (2.0" hail)? Yes, Large hail, Don't know if we see 2" though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 I have to give the American models credit, they've been fairly consistent with the Weds. threat for some time (fropa timing aside). But the idea of unidirectional flow near the MA/CT border with a slightly veered profile further north has been there. Agree with Wiz and others that a bowing segment ripping eastbound on the Pike is a concern right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Still a little iffy here as the 12z NAM and SREFs seem to highlight more CT and RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Still a little iffy here as the 12z NAM and SREFs seem to highlight more CT and RI. They seem to kick things off quickly. The strong probability of low level frontogenesis and high CAPE with marginal shear suggests a high likelihood that there will be sporadic screw zones throughout the corridor. But, it also suggests the potential for SIG SVR in narrow corridors where clusters become organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 They seem to kick things off quickly. The strong probability of low level frontogenesis and high CAPE with marginal shear suggests a high likelihood that there will be sporadic screw zones throughout the corridor. But, it also suggests the potential for SIG SVR in narrow corridors where clusters become organized. It's going to be a high CAPE day so the fuel is there. Kind of weird to see the euro so slow and the NAM and SREFs much faster. I wonder if part of it is a result of what happens late today or this evening. If the timing is right, the combo we have is classic for coastal areas. Light winds at the surface, yet good shear aloft. You don't see that too often. I haven't looked too hard down by you, but nrn NJ at least is under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 It's going to be a high CAPE day so the fuel is there. Kind of weird to see the euro so slow and the NAM and SREFs much faster. I wonder if part of it is a result of what happens late today or this evening. If the timing is right, the combo we have is classic for coastal areas. Light winds at the surface, yet good shear aloft. You don't see that too often. I haven't looked too hard down by you, but nrn NJ at least is under the gun. Down here we lose a bit of the wind shear but we have a ton of CAPE with hardly any cap, There will likely be a large cluster of thunderstorms that swiftly move southeastward through most of the area with narrow corridors of SIG SVR. Big CAPE / low shear is a classic setup in mid-July for NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Down here we lose a bit of the wind shear but we have a ton of CAPE with hardly any cap, There will likely be a large cluster of thunderstorms that swiftly move southeastward through most of the area with narrow corridors of SIG SVR. Big CAPE / low shear is a classic setup in mid-July for NJ. Yeah, I agree with you. I like this area for a more organized/sig potential given the amount of CAPE/shear here. There's a narrow area where things are juxtaposed quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Down here we lose a bit of the wind shear but we have a ton of CAPE with hardly any cap, There will likely be a large cluster of thunderstorms that swiftly move southeastward through most of the area with narrow corridors of SIG SVR. Big CAPE / low shear is a classic setup in mid-July for NJ. I have a bias for this living near the water, but big CAPE usually means big fun here. You can get all the good stuff that strong shear has to often if CAPE is substantial enough. I don't mind low shear as it usually favors this area. NJ down to DC is the CAPE capitol of the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Yeah, I agree with you. I like this area for a more organized/sig potential given the amount of CAPE/shear here. There's a narrow area where things are juxtaposed quite well. The 850mb winds do pick up throughout the day but never really get into a good territory for widespread severe. I wouldn't rule out some supercells at initiation for southern New England into NE PA but likely non-tornadic. There will probably be at least 2 corridors of screw zones if the NAM solution is correct between PA and MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 I have a bias for this living near the water, but big CAPE usually means big fun here. You can get all the good stuff that strong shear has to often if CAPE is substantial enough. I don't mind low shear as it usually favors this area. NJ down to DC is the CAPE capitol of the northeast. Momentum CAPE bombs will likely blast eastward down this way and bring some localized high wind gusts to someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 decent remant EML stretching from Wisconsin to central NY today. I wonder how long that lasts and how fast it progresses east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Momentum CAPE bombs will likely blast eastward down this way and bring some localized high wind gusts to someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Yeah, I agree with you. I like this area for a more organized/sig potential given the amount of CAPE/shear here. There's a narrow area where things are juxtaposed quite well. What areas are you highlighting? From Pike or just south of it down to NYC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 What areas are you highlighting? From Pike or just south of it down to NYC area? Will look more later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 i like high MOS pops...always raises my confidence even though it's a bootleg approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 the EML looks considerably better than SPC seems to be implying today. http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2012&MONTH=07&FROM=1712&TO=1712&STNM=72632 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 The GFS develops a little seabreeze/meso low overhead too tomorrow. Pretty robust over this region fwiw. Shear almost weakens slightly during the day before increasing again, but the increase in shear may be the model response to the developing convection. Not a bad jet structure with some divergence over srn areas at 200mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eire015 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NY...NRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 171602Z - 171700Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 17-18Z. THE W-E ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS WILL THEN PROGRESS SWD INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A PREDOMINANT THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. A WW APPEARS LIKELY BY 17-18Z. DISCUSSION...INITIAL STRATUS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IS QUICKLY PROGRESSING EWD...WITH CLEARING AND AMPLE SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOCATIONS ACROSS CNTRL AND UPSTATE NY THAT HAVE CLEARED HAVE ALREADY ACHIEVED FORECAST HIGHS APPROXIMATELY FOUR HOURS EARLIER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...MODERATE SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IS RAPIDLY OCCURRING...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS ACROSS MI SUGGEST STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHILE A DEEP LAYER STRENGTHENING OF WINDS OCCURS AROUND THE BASE OF A HUDSON BAY TROUGH. ATTM...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING RESIDING ACROSS NRN ME...SRN QC AND ON. A LINE OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS SHOULD THEN PROGRESS SWD...FAVORABLY TIMED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES/INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..HURLBUT/MEAD.. 07/17/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Is Forky and Ryan's MCS still on the table for today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eire015 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 489 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 125 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE NEW HAMPSHIRE NORTHERN NEW YORK VERMONT EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WATERTOWN NEW YORK TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BERLIN NEW HAMPSHIRE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 488... DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE W AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH A STEADILY STRENGTHENING WLY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...SETUP WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32030. ...MEAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 The GFS develops a little seabreeze/meso low overhead too tomorrow. Pretty robust over this region fwiw. Shear almost weakens slightly during the day before increasing again, but the increase in shear may be the model response to the developing convection. Not a bad jet structure with some divergence over srn areas at 200mb. It's too bad the jet isn't a little more robust and farther south: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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