Jim Martin Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 0z NAM has northwest Ohio in the mid to upper 100s by 5pm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 27 deg C at 850mb on the 0z DVN raob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Atlantic, IA (west of Des Moines) is 88/79 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Glad I'm not forecasting for Detroit. 25 degree difference in max temps between NAM and GFS. Do you go with 108 or 83 or split the difference haha. Or take a believable dp of 66 vs 77. A dp of 77 is extremely rare to reach in Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Glad I'm not forecasting for Detroit. 25 degree difference in max temps between NAM and GFS. Do you go with 108 or 83 or split the difference haha. Or take a believable dp of 66 vs 77. A dp of 77 is extremely rare to reach in Detroit That GFS run had many of us shaking our heads. I can't recall ever seeing a DP over 75 or worse yet 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 0z RAP gets a few area to 100 by 15z tomorrow lol then brings the lake breeze inland by 18z. RPM model showed the impact of the lake breeze during the afternoon clearly. UGN only peaks at 94° on that model. I noticed the 18z NAM has upper 80s along the lake by 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 That GFS run had many of us shaking our heads. I can't recall ever seeing a DP over 75 or worse yet 80. 78*F at Metro Airport and 77*F at City Airport a couple summers ago. Temps were in the mid-upper 90s, enough to pop up a lake breeze t'storm here on the eastside. That said, latest NAM has trended cooler for the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 That GFS run had many of us shaking our heads. I can't recall ever seeing a DP over 75 or worse yet 80. The last time was August 24th of last year when it hit 75: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDTW/2011/8/24/DailyHistory.html Then a few weeks prior it hit 77: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDTW/2011/8/6/DailyHistory.html I don't think it's too rare of a number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 WRF still showing some healthy 100s pushing into Southern Lower MI and the knocking on Detroits door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 RAP has a huge area of 110+ at 19z with still some heating to go. Kook model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 The NAM is cooler over Michigan because it blows up storms over E Wisconsin at 18z and races them across S Michigan by 21z. I don't see neither happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 I'm gonna bust at ORD if this front doesn't slow down. Shame on me for buying the slower timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 The last time was August 24th of last year when it hit 75: http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html Then a few weeks prior it hit 77: http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html I don't think it's too rare of a number. Now that you bring it up I do remember that 75 degree reading. That was the Aug 24th supercell party we had. One of the more noteworthy severe weather days that Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Yesterday I mentioned seeing a 601 dm thickness on the 00z 500-mb chart over eastern CO. Today's reading appears to be 598 or 599 dm (the lower part of the 8 or 9 is covered by an isopleth). The location is southeast CO near the OK panhandle but the 594 dm thickness extends well into KS. Personally, I would expect the 100+ heat to cut off around the MI-IN-OH borders from the look of the RGEM and DTW might max at 98 and if dew points exceed 70 it might be due to pooling near a weak convergence line type front but otherwise dew points may stay about 65-70. Although there are 75-80 dew points in Iowa, these are probably due to maturing corn and don't seem that exceptional compared to some real stinkers in 1995 when I think there were dews around 85-90 F in IA-IL in advance of the record highs set on July 14 and the severe derecho event in the Great Lakes (which I barely survived, unfortunately for you readers). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 The last time was August 24th of last year when it hit 75: http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html Then a few weeks prior it hit 77: http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html I don't think it's too rare of a number. It's pretty rare, last year was a fluke. If you go back past last year and 3 years beyond that I think you will be hard pressed to find too many 75+ dp's for dtw. Especially in the 1980s 90's and early 00's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 A few predictions for tomorrow... ORD 99 MDW 100 MLI 100 STL 105 LAF 103 IND 104 DTW 99 Early frontal passage/lake breeze will save the records for Chicago. If the front ends up a bit slower than expected, similar to what happened this past Sun, then it might be a different story. Chicago records: 28th: 101/81 Last 100+: 102 - 7/24/05 June record high: 104 - 6/20/88 All time record high: 105 - 7/24/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 A few predictions for tomorrow... ORD 99 MDW 100 MLI 100 STL 105 LAF 103 IND 104 DTW 99 Early frontal passage/lake breeze will save the records for Chicago. If the front ends up a bit slower than expected, similar to what happened this past Sun, then it might be a different story. Chicago records: 28th: 101/81 Last 100+: 102 - 7/24/05 June record high: 104 - 6/20/88 All time record high: 105 - 7/24/34 A lot of good calls there. I'm going to update DTW to 98 and DET to 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 A few predictions for tomorrow... ORD 99 MDW 100 MLI 100 STL 105 LAF 103 IND 104 DTW 99 Early frontal passage/lake breeze will save the records for Chicago. If the front ends up a bit slower than expected, similar to what happened this past Sun, then it might be a different story. Chicago records: 28th: 101/81 Last 100+: 102 - 7/24/05 June record high: 104 - 6/20/88 All time record high: 105 - 7/24/34 Detroit has the exact same all time high, 105 on 7-24-34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Detroit has the exact same all time high, 105 on 7-24-34. Would be interesting if they were broken on the same day in the future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Going with 101 for DTW , 103 YIP and 98 PTK. unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 A few predictions for tomorrow... ORD 99 MDW 100 MLI 100 STL 105 LAF 103 IND 104 DTW 99 Early frontal passage/lake breeze will save the records for Chicago. If the front ends up a bit slower than expected, similar to what happened this past Sun, then it might be a different story. Chicago records: 28th: 101/81 Last 100+: 102 - 7/24/05 June record high: 104 - 6/20/88 All time record high: 105 - 7/24/34 Look pretty good. I'll go with.... ORD 102 MDW 101 MLI 100 STL 105 LAF 103 IND 104 DTW 99 I think MLI/RFD/ORD may end up having the benefit of a very quick morning temp ascent. The combination of compressional heating just ahead of the front and the heart of the 850mb heat dome overhead in the morning should really get temps moving quickly. Like you said if that front slows down at all we could see MLI/RFD/ORD do even better. EDIT: We'll probably see temps reach 90-92 as early as 10am for the I-80/I-88 corridor tomorrow. May get close to 100 as early as noon before leveling off the rest of the afternoon. Places like SPI and LAF may be cooler than the northern areas through early afternoon, but see temps steadily climb all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I think I am going to stand pat on my 101 call from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 It's pretty rare, last year was a fluke. If you go back past last year and 3 years beyond that I think you will be hard pressed to find too many 75+ dp's for dtw. Especially in the 1980s 90's and early 00's Rare, but as said it has happened. July 14, 1995 saw 81F dewpoint with a temp of 98F (hi 121F) (high was 100F) http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDTW/1995/7/14/DailyHistory.html July 15, 1977 saw 76F dewpoint with a temp of 100F (high was 102F) http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDTW/1977/7/15/DailyHistory.html Im sure it happened several times during the torrid summers of the 1930s-1950s (even though several of those heatwaves were "dry" heat) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Rare, but as said it has happened. July 14, 1995 saw 81F dewpoint with a temp of 98F (hi 121F) (high was 100F) http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html July 15, 1977 saw 76F dewpoint with a temp of 100F (high was 102F) http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html Im sure it happened several times during the torrid summers of the 1930s-1950s (even though several of those heatwaves were "dry" heat) There was a 3 or 4 day stretch in 2006 around August 1st that had dews in the mid/upper 70s and temps in the upper 90s also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 I think this is a decent starting point for highs. I'd make some tweaks here and there, like getting rid of the belt of >110 (think it would be more like touching 110 and isolated at best) and going a little warmer for highs in areas where the front would have already passed through by this time. I expect numerous spots in central/southern IL/IN to be AOA 105 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I think this is a decent starting point for highs. I'd make some tweaks here and there, like getting rid of the belt of >110 (think it would be more like touching 110 and isolated at best) and going a little warmer for highs in areas where the front would have already passed through by this time. I expect numerous spots in central/southern IL/IN to be AOA 105 tomorrow. What's your feeling on the DTW area? Mid-100s like the map there shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 What's your feeling on the DTW area? Mid-100s like the map there shows? SE MI is a tough one depending on extent of clouds and if/when any storms get there (seemingly unlikely). I'd probably go with 100 for DTW but an upward adjustment would be probable if everything works out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Still 75 here. Probably gonna have a 12-15 degree head start compared to what we had this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 So outrageous I can't help posting... Good ol' RAP. Shows 110/75 just southeast of the QC at 20z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Wow u guys are gonna roast. Stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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