kab2791 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 HRRR would be a pretty big disappointment... Keeps the 100 mark to only a small area in NE Ohio Meh, the HRRR has many locales in the 70s for 15Z (11 am EDT), where temps are already in the mid-upper 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Meh, the HRRR has many locales in the 70s for 15Z (11 am EDT), where temps are already in the mid-upper 80s. Yeah I was just checking on that. HRRR struggled with temps during the last bout of heat as well, at least in SEMI it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 88 at Indy. Probably should be 91 by now, but they dropped 2 degrees when that sprinkle storm cloud moved over a couple hours ago. Will be interesting to see if the clouds really end up influencing the max temps this afternoon. Clouds have cleared out of the area now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Already 91.3 with a dewpoint of 76.0. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 81 right now with a forecast of 90 today. Not the most extreme temps compared to what it's going to be like south of the border, but they are really significant by our standards. Just checked the forecast and areas southwest of here have forecast temps approaching 100. When I was in Kansas the temp reached the mid to high 90s a lot and it was sometimes humid. but it didn't feel as soupy as it does here on hot days. Would the lakes or geographical location of southern Ontario mean we get higher humidity than Kansas, or would they get worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Will be interesting to see if the clouds really end up influencing the max temps this afternoon. Clouds have cleared out of the area now.. Did you get any sprinkles up there? I saw quite a few people on the N side of 465 talking about them earlier, on twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Yesterday at 10am 80/55, today 88/72. I don't know if we'll make it to 97 again today, but it sure will feel worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 DTX raises highs by 1-2 degrees due to overestimation in dewpoints by models. 000 FXUS63 KDTX 281547 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1147 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND LOWER DEWPOINTS BY SIMILAR VALUES. CLIMB IN DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY CONTINUES TO BE OVERESTIMATED BY MODELS WITH LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOWING DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. 12Z DTX SOUNDING ALSO CAME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH 100+ NOW POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES NECESSARY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS KEEPING HEAT INDICES BELOW 105F. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES ALSO LOOK TO STAY JUST OUTSIDE OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Depends on if/when the lake breeze kicks in. If not I could definitely see these lakefront locations north of Chicago approach 100 Lake breeze starting up by Sheboygan now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Up to 92, Kenosha is now 96! Looks like someone hitting 100 in Wisconsin is a safe bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 A patch of altocumulus is moving over right now. Hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Kenosha leads the northern areas with 96. 96-99F readings down to the south, around I-64. Looks like it's back to normal in the Chicago area, with PWK/MDW (94) ahead of ORD (92). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 After a slow start due to some slight cloud cover my temp gauge at my house is up to 96.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Lake breeze starting up by Sheboygan now! Geez that seems early. 92/75 in Madison, YUCK. Heat index of 103 °F. Dewpoint up to 77 on the met building roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 LOT lowered highs across the CWA. It will likely end up being a bad decision for most of the area...unless ACCAS becomes a bigger issue. UGN area is already warmer than the updated numbers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ink to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 97 at HNB at 12:15 est. May be at or above 100 by 1:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Temp jumped up 4 degrees to 91 in the past 30 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Geez that seems early. 92/75 in Madison, YUCK. Heat index of 103 °F. Dewpoint up to 77 on the met building roof. When it is really hot - they can start quite early. Feels like the jungle outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 we at least the 30c 850s east of the river materialized...that's kind of cool i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Only 92 right now... a bit of clouds moving through NWOH so I don't think KTOL sets their all time record of 105F today. For as hot as it is outside, it could be much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Funny thing is there's big time cold air advection at 850 hPa, good thing or we'd be totally screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 I probably overshot my 2nd prediction for LAF a little. Thinking more like 103 or 104 now. Also would not be surprised to see another late day high (5-6 PM?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Also would not be surprised to see another late day high (5-6 PM?) for you guys...no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Clouds coming in, not sure if we will see 100... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Clouds coming in, not sure if we will see 100... ORD climbing pretty slow...up to 93/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 96F at LAF and 98F at IND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Still going up 4 degrees an hour (that will end soon). Now 96/64 in LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I probably overshot my 2nd prediction for LAF a little. Thinking more like 103 or 104 now. Also would not be surprised to see another late day high (5-6 PM?) 98/64 for IND, 96/64 LAF. 94/61 MIE. EVV is the hottest official station in the state at 99/58. 96/67 at the EMA station just north of Anderson. Road temp on the piece of pavement they set out is 125 rising at 10 degrees an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 99 at EVV. Upper 100's here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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