CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 There is actually decent support for this. The tropical Pacific is cooperating in helping to provide ridging out in the West/Rockies. As Will pointed out previously, we have a block developing up in the western Davis Straits and ne Canada. This is good if you like these late season events. Of course, it doesn't always work out, but the next 15 days may produce...perhaps not just high elevations either. LOL, hey...we did it in October and with the colder air coming south past Hudson Bay..why not us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 We'll start this thread to keep the non-banter talk on the upciming potential wintry period in early April. Current guidance has a favorable setup for potential cutoffs to slide south of New England and further into the long range, a potential significant cold dump into Canada, but that is more speculatory at this point The first snow threat is in the day 5 range...there isa favorable block northeast of Hudson Bay that is common in April snow events for New England and the big ridge in the central US Further into the long range we see the central ridge trying to connect with ridging over the arctic which may promote a fresh influx of colder air down into Canada that could set the stage for more threats...and of course the mean trough position is pretty good on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Scott I moved your post into here...but since you made your post before I made this thread, it ends up on top, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 You folks need to work on catchy titles for threads... Anyway, several possible events lining up...hopefully they all overperform and give us bookend months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Scott I moved your post into here...but since you made your post before I made this thread, it ends up on top, lol. Will, why don't you just delete the thread I started. It's better than leaving it there all locked and pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I updated the images in the post above as I had the 00z ensemble images in there and not 12z..not a huge difference anyway, but more recent run is probably more applicable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I updated the images in the post above as I had the 00z ensemble images in there and not 12z..not a huge difference anyway, but more recent run is probably more applicable. It's no coincidence that my AK friends are about to see the warmest temps they've had since November (mid 30's). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I'm pretty amazed at just how cold this 18Z GFS run is in the late periods. Jesus! NCEP noted that the intense Phase 8 MJO's --> ensuing eastern N/A cold - but I think it really does have more plausibility this run through of the 7-8-1 relay, because the central ONI domains are warmed to neutral, literally over the last 10 days and have canceled the Nina. Wamer temperature SST are constructive influences for MJO waves. I feel much higher confidence at this point that it will snow again ...and meaningfully at that in the first 2 weeks of April. Scott I was going to start this very same threat after gym and dinner - Believe it or not, the end of the month still times toastier - though the Euro weeklies have tempered some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Remember to bring shovels to the gtg in ORH... mark my words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I'm pretty amazed at just how cold this 18Z GFS run is in the late periods. Jesus! NCEP noted that the intense Phase 8 MJO's --> ensuing eastern N/A cold - but I think it really does have more plausibility this run through of the 7-8-1 relay, because the central ONI domains are warmed to neutral, literally over the last 10 days and have canceled the Nina. Wamer temperature SST are constructive influences for MJO waves. I feel much higher confidence at this point that it will snow again ...and meaningfully at that in the first 2 weeks of April. Scott I was going to start this very same threat after gym and dinner - Believe it or not, the end of the month still times toastier - though the Euro weeklies have tempered some. Perfect. throw a few snow days in for early April...and then torch later in the month into May. Also everything needs to happen 3/31 to 4/11 because I leave on the 4/12 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I'm pretty amazed at just how cold this 18Z GFS run is in the late periods. Jesus! NCEP noted that the intense Phase 8 MJO's --> ensuing eastern N/A cold - but I think it really does have more plausibility this run through of the 7-8-1 relay, because the central ONI domains are warmed to neutral, literally over the last 10 days and have canceled the Nina. Wamer temperature SST are constructive influences for MJO waves. I feel much higher confidence at this point that it will snow again ...and meaningfully at that in the first 2 weeks of April. Scott I was going to start this very same threat after gym and dinner - Believe it or not, the end of the month still times toastier - though the Euro weeklies have tempered some. Perhaps an April 6-8 1982 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I saw this discussed in one of the other threads but one thing that is definitely promising is the fact how the Nina has seemed to weaken quite a bit over the past few weeks and a major MJO wave moving into phase 7-8-1...with the NAO potentially heading negative that would certainly be of great benefit. Thanks to what looks like an active MJO period we should see lots of systems working into the southern US and working through the south so all we need is some blocking up north to keep those systems to our south and we may have a shot at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Naturally ridging finally occurs in AK and we finally get a retrograding low in NE Canada and Greenland in late March and into early April. So we can all enjoy our colder than normal weather, and never lasting 'snowfall' as a pretty damn respectable winter pattern tries to unfold for the first few days in April. Give me some decent snow or give me my 70s back please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Naturally ridging finally occurs in AK and we finally get a retrograding low in NE Canada and Greenland in late March and into early April. So we can all enjoy our colder than normal weather, and never lasting 'snowfall' as a pretty damn respectable winter pattern tries to unfold for the first few days in April. Give me some decent snow or give me my 70s back please. It would be a shame to waste this pattern...it is pretty useless if we cannot generate a snow event out of it...but I do think the interior has a pretty decent shot in this pattern...it looks quite similar to the composite of many past late March and early April snow events. I like seeing 1958 appearing all over the analog patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 It would be a shame to waste this pattern...it is pretty useless if we cannot generate a snow event out of it...but I do think the interior has a pretty decent shot in this pattern...it looks quite similar to the composite of many past late March and early April snow events. I like seeing 1958 appearing all over the analog patterns. I tend to agree. I think the blocky-ness has been signaled fairly well by the Euro and with so many s/w running around, one is bound to effect at east CNE and NNE, and most likely GC and over your way per climo. Many wrote off winter, but as many other said, you can't really argue against 150 years of climo. Knowing my luck, it'll occur while I'm home in southern CT from 3/30-4/8 on spring break! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 850s are -1C here...pattern must have changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Congrats Kevin on the 84h NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 to bad its the 84hr nam or that would be sweet Congrats Kevin on the 84h NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Its the same system the Euro has, but the Euro is much slower and more blocked up with the flow so it happens about 18-24 hours later than the NAM shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 LOL nam. Some nice warning snows Saturday on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 LOL nam. Some nice warning snows Saturday on the nam. I dunno if I'd call the NAM solution warning snows...probably more like a sloppy 2-4" with a lolli or two of 5-6" over litchfield county. Regardless, its mostly irrelevant anyway what the NAM shows at this range. The one thing I'd say is positive and useful to note is that the NAM is more amped with that wave and so is the Euro...when those two are more amped up they usually end up being correct versusthe other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Maybe another lolli over Steve's fanny in Moosup on the NAM. Its cool to see the temps wetbulb on the NAM run even if its clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 There is actually decent support for this. The tropical Pacific is cooperating in helping to provide ridging out in the West/Rockies. As Will pointed out previously, we have a block developing up in the western Davis Straits and ne Canada. This is good if you like these late season events. Of course, it doesn't always work out, but the next 15 days may produce...perhaps not just high elevations either. LOL, hey...we did it in October and with the colder air coming south past Hudson Bay..why not us? Imagine, a winter that happens in late October and April, spring and summer in between? Sounds more like Australia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Yeah if the gfs catches on its game on.. I would love to hear peoples reactions even if we got an inch of snow.. Its the same system the Euro has, but the Euro is much slower and more blocked up with the flow so it happens about 18-24 hours later than the NAM shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 weenie map just for laughs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 What about the late stuff? GFS? UK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 What about the late stuff? GFS? UK? GFS is just coming out...daylight savings time screws us on the models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I dunno if I'd call the NAM solution warning snows...probably more like a sloppy 2-4" with a lolli or two of 5-6" over litchfield county. Regardless, its mostly irrelevant anyway what the NAM shows at this range. The one thing I'd say is positive and useful to note is that the NAM is more amped with that wave and so is the Euro...when those two are more amped up they usually end up being correct versusthe other globals. Nice call, even if it is just the NAM at 84 hours : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 GFS is just coming out...daylight savings time screws us on the models now. HA, totally forgot about that. So the NAM was favorable as were previous runs of some of the other models. There's good support overall based on what I just read in terms of the longwave pattern. Euro timing was different but not bad otherwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 GFS coming in a lot further north with that system now...so it may be climbing on board. Its fast like the NAM though...has it snowing in most of SNE by 78-84h. Its a little warmer and further north than the NAM too...it hammers the pike region...changes to rain in CT after some front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.