Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 GFS coming in a lot further north with that system now...so it may be climbing on board. Its fast like the NAM though...has it snowing in most of SNE by 78-84h. Its a little warmer and further north than the NAM too...it hammers the pike region...changes to rain in CT after some front end snow. we just need the precip so badly, I don't care what falls. I've never seen it this dry this early. Scary stuff. Sounds like it's coming around to all of us getting good precip this weekend which is great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 GFS is pretty good for GC and ORH hills...but prob would have some snow even to BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Thanks Will, I'm off to bed. H2 nice map, going to be one of those systems potentially that fights to get north the further east it gets. Euro at 12z looked along the same lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Will, would you say with the strong confluence to our NE this has a chance of being a little bit further south than where the GFS has it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Will, would you say with the strong confluence to our NE this has a chance of being a little bit further south than where the GFS has it? Yeah I'd thing so...the system will have to fight to gain latitude as messenger said because of the confluence to the northeast. The Euro has a different evolution so we'll have to see how it plays out...in a complex pattern like this, the Euro is probably going to handle it better...but its interesting that the GFS has caught on tot he faster idea...maybe the Euro will too at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Alright, who's staying up for the Euro?! Let's doooo this!! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 GGEM is slower like the Euro...a bit more suppressed though...it has the best snow in CT. But probably still gives most of SNE at least an inch or two, with the 3-6 or 4-8 type stuff south of the pike. Though there are ptype issues in southern half of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 GFS has the 4/6 system like the Euro...out in clown range obviously. But its there and its been showing up on the Euro ensembles for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 just saw the gfs wow!! Forecast for 50's and 60's this weekend are in serious trouble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 just saw the gfs wow!! Forecast for 50's and 60's this weekend are in serious trouble! I dont think a single model has upper 50s and low 60s now for the weekend. Def gonna have to revise that forecast. Such is the game in April when an airmass that produces a high of 57F under full sun can also produce a plastering of wet snow. The amount of cold air into central/eastern Canada in the long range on GFS is pretty remarkable...considering what it looked like just recently during the torch. Euro ensembles support the big cold influx too. It actually has the coldest 850 temps there at the end of its run despite being much further into April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 just saw the gfs wow!! Forecast for 50's and 60's this weekend are in serious trouble! lol and "mostly sunny skies" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Seeing this pattern on the models right now is making me cringe almost...if only we had this in winter. We joked a couple weeks ago when the weeklies showed that pattern that it was ironic that the pattern we were waiting for all winter happens in early April...well it looks like the weeklies were right. Hopefully we can cash in on this...the time of year is working against us, but itsa pretty good pattern, esp for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 GFS ensembles are south of the OP for Saturday...but not a surprise...still much further north than previous ensemble mean. Its odd to me that the ensembles don't seem to have any slower runs like the GGEM or Euro...obviously that is a red flag in the modeling right now...the huge difference in timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Some pretty nice VV's on the GFS...where the temp profile is cold enough (or close enough) there definitely could be a nice narrow zone of some intense precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Good timing on the US models ...mostly with no sun to deal with on Friday night/early Saturday. GFS is pretty good for GC and ORH hills...but prob would have some snow even to BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 GEFS continue to show a remarkable torch cutter around 4/3...Euro ensembles had it much more suppressed....we'll see who wins. GEFS do have the 4/6 event that the OP has and the Euro ensembles have...a fairly decent signal, but not overly robust either. But its there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I think this is the first Euro run I've cared enough about to stay up for since 2/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Euro looks like its sticking to the slower idea through 66 hours. We'll see how it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Euro is really sloppy with the phase of the 4/1-4/2..it has some snow but likely changing to rain south of the pike and perhaps even up to Rt 2. Its not a ton of qpf as the bulk of the system slides south. Its a very messy look at H5 so this obviously has alot of work to do...and will likely change a lot on the models aswe get closer just looking on how complex it is. There is no qpf into CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 The Euro looks pretty interesting out past 180 hours...even the GFS to a degree. Actually looks like there could be room for some spring LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Lots of meh for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Ullr rewards the pious. Long live Ullr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I figured at least one of the models would have completely lost the first system, so this is good that it still shows in some form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 6z gfs didnt look good 12z models today should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 As of now you'd have to go with the 00z GGEM as the final solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 As of now you'd have to go with the 00z GGEM as the final solution Snowiest model always wins. I would go with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 Euro ensembles were faster than the op. Still kind of far to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 This could very well be a CT deal..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 amazed that the news stations dont even have a chance for flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 amazed that the news stations dont even have a chance for flakes Well there is the chance that it could be shunted south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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