Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Let's keep the obs and discussion fresh... Two days now of obscenity now in the record books, and incredibly, with a +4mb pp imbalance between HP in Down East Maine and that S of LI, the backdoor (in March!) halted penetration and already is retreating seaward over NE Mass. Simply ...awesome. Conventional wisdom would have it knocking on the door of NYC by now, with 45F as far inland as NE CT. Still eying a pattern change of sorts ... I don't know, or I should say I don't have much confidence in how discerned it will be. The GEFs -derived teleconnectors are still timing the +PNA near month's end with a run in with Phase 7+MJO. The original points remain the same: MJO has shown West Pac robustness already this last "uncold" season, and proved 0 winter fruits for the storm forsaken weary warriors back east. The "hope" here is that a seasonally differentiating R-count might finally make the preferred correlation action act like it is the preferred correlation - but you never know. The trouble I'm having is the -NAO is unraveling now at CPC, and lost in the ESRL channel at CDC. Also, the current eastern ridge is happening during a +PNA according to the GEFs mean - that kind of sucks for cold weather enthusiasts. So I got mixed emotions on that. The operational run have also been hinted pretty loudly that after the closed low opens up and passes through the MA, the ridge tries to come back somewhat. If the NAO fails to evolve negative and the MJO bends us over again... meaningful cool back might mean nothing more than average before another surge. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 As you would agree I think, I could go for an extreme week or two of cold with a 20-30" snowstorm on 4/1 then back to 70s and 80s by 4/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 As you would agree I think, I could go for an extreme week or two of cold with a 20-30" snowstorm on 4/1 then back to 70s and 80s by 4/15. i'll take the first part, but extend it till May 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Let's keep the obs and discussion fresh... Two days now of obscenity now in the record books, and incredibly, with a +4mb pp imbalance between HP in Down East Maine and that S of LI, the backdoor (in March!) halted penetration and already is retreating seaward over NE Mass. Simply ...awesome. Conventional wisdom would have it knocking on the door of NYC by now, with 45F as far inland as NE CT. Still eying a pattern change of sorts ... I don't know, or I should say I don't have much confidence in how discerned it will be. The GEFs -derived teleconnectors are still timing the +PNA near month's end with a run in with Phase 7+MJO. The original points remain the same: MJO has shown West Pac robustness already this last "uncold" season, and proved 0 winter fruits for the storm forsaken weary warriors back east. The "hope" here is that a seasonally differentiating R-count might finally make the preferred correlation action act like it is the preferred correlation - but you never know. The trouble I'm having is the -NAO is unraveling now at CPC, and lost in the ESRL channel at CDC. Also, the current eastern ridge is happening during a +PNA according to the GEFs mean - that kind of sucks for cold weather enthusiasts. So I got mixed emotions on that. The operational run have also been hinted pretty loudly that after the closed low opens up and passes through the MA, the ridge tries to come back somewhat. If the NAO fails to evolve negative and the MJO bends us over again... meaningful cool back might mean nothing more than average before another surge. Thoughts? The NAO aspect seemed rather weak on the 500MB anomaly charts. But, there has been a signal for ridging out west that would lead to the potential for cutoffs over the northeast. I think people are getting confused thinking it means frigid weather. To me I see the potential for a little bit of a yo-yo ride..with the potential for warmth, and cutoffs with marginal atmosphere to work with in higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I think that todays 18z GFS had snow down to C-NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Let's keep the obs and discussion fresh... Two days now of obscenity now in the record books, and incredibly, with a +4mb pp imbalance between HP in Down East Maine and that S of LI, the backdoor (in March!) halted penetration and already is retreating seaward over NE Mass. Simply ...awesome. Conventional wisdom would have it knocking on the door of NYC by now, with 45F as far inland as NE CT. Still eying a pattern change of sorts ... I don't know, or I should say I don't have much confidence in how discerned it will be. The GEFs -derived teleconnectors are still timing the +PNA near month's end with a run in with Phase 7+MJO. The original points remain the same: MJO has shown West Pac robustness already this last "uncold" season, and proved 0 winter fruits for the storm forsaken weary warriors back east. The "hope" here is that a seasonally differentiating R-count might finally make the preferred correlation action act like it is the preferred correlation - but you never know. The trouble I'm having is the -NAO is unraveling now at CPC, and lost in the ESRL channel at CDC. Also, the current eastern ridge is happening during a +PNA according to the GEFs mean - that kind of sucks for cold weather enthusiasts. So I got mixed emotions on that. The operational run have also been hinted pretty loudly that after the closed low opens up and passes through the MA, the ridge tries to come back somewhat. If the NAO fails to evolve negative and the MJO bends us over again... meaningful cool back might mean nothing more than average before another surge. Thoughts? My thought is the bolded part is going to be more right than wrong. I don't think payback is coming in April. A return to normal or thereabouts for a period of time. It can't be +30 for the running 30 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 The NAO aspect seemed rather weak on the 500MB anomaly charts. But, there has been a signal for ridging out west that would lead to the potential for cutoffs over the northeast. I think people are getting confused thinking it means frigid weather. To me I see the potential for a little bit of a yo-yo ride..with the potential for warmth, and cutoffs with marginal atmosphere to work with in higher elevations. Yeah...I basically agree with that Scott, but I think NAO does correlate on the pattern through spring. The PNA definitely wanes nearing May 1 ...but the first half of April is prone. I think of that chart on April 1982, the day before the big one that year (I think it was April 8?) ...Anyway, there was a helluva frigid air mass in SE Canada that got overtop that negative tilter - in fact, might behoove us to check the EPO and NAO during the week run up to that event. I also remember blowing snow at 3pm one April as recently as 2004 ...or 005... Meaningful cold can take place. It's this plaguing seasonal trend that killing me - insane. I have never seen the atmosphere be so singularly deconstructive toward one specific physical event - snow. Now that we're getting veritable heat waves in March ...seemingly unrelenting, and having operational runs trying build height back up next week.... I mean, what are we to think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 My campus wx station hit 83.8F today at 1200' elevation in the Monadnocks. It tends to run a little warm, but not that much. Still in the 60s here despite our elevation. Just an insane torch outside right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 My campus wx station hit 83.8F today at 1200' elevation in the Monadnocks. It tends to run a little warm, but not that much. Still in the 60s here despite our elevation. Just an insane torch outside right now. 53F here. What is up with your heat retention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 53F here. What is up with your heat retention? We've dropped into the 50s now (just checked), but this spot does tend to run pretty mild in S/SW flow scenarios. I've noticed several times that I'm not as cold as the Worcester Hills or East Slope when winds are SW, or when in a radiational cooling scenario since we're much slower to decouple. Today was an absolute torch here although yesterday didn't get as warm as many other spots in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 With the temps forecast as warm as they are, I wonder if winnipesaukee "ice out" breaks 2010's earliest record (March 24th, I believe)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 BUF will about +17 for the month on Friday. The previous record for consecutive 60 degree days in March is 6...looks they will end up with about 12 consecutive...and 6 or 7 consecutive days above 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Yeah...I basically agree with that Scott, but I think NAO does correlate on the pattern through spring. The PNA definitely wanes nearing May 1 ...but the first half of April is prone. I think of that chart on April 1982, the day before the big one that year (I think it was April 8?) ...Anyway, there was a helluva frigid air mass in SE Canada that got overtop that negative tilter - in fact, might behoove us to check the EPO and NAO during the week run up to that event. I also remember blowing snow at 3pm one April as recently as 2004 ...or 005... Meaningful cold can take place. It's this plaguing seasonal trend that killing me - insane. I have never seen the atmosphere be so singularly deconstructive toward one specific physical event - snow. Now that we're getting veritable heat waves in March ...seemingly unrelenting, and having operational runs trying build height back up next week.... I mean, what are we to think! Yeah with the shorter wavelengths I think the NAO actually helps with this area, but the correlation actually begins to switch for the SE US and actually correlated to warmer temps. Anyways, that's more like May and June. In the meantime, we'll see how it goes later next week. Seems like the potential for storminess at the least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 BUF will about +17 for the month on Friday. The previous record for consecutive 60 degree days in March is 6...looks they will end up with about 12 consecutive...and 6 or 7 consecutive days above 70. That's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 That's crazy. that it is...i just noticed the euro is considerably warmer than the gfs for upstate NY, too. Low to mid-70s for Friday and then mid to upper-60s for Sat. NWS has upper 60s for Fri and near 60 for Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Why are there no red flag warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 not enough wind until thursday or friday IN ADDITION...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER MAY COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. Why are there no red flag warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Yeah...I basically agree with that Scott, but I think NAO does correlate on the pattern through spring. The PNA definitely wanes nearing May 1 ...but the first half of April is prone. I think of that chart on April 1982, the day before the big one that year (I think it was April 8?) ...Anyway, there was a helluva frigid air mass in SE Canada that got overtop that negative tilter - in fact, might behoove us to check the EPO and NAO during the week run up to that event. I also remember blowing snow at 3pm one April as recently as 2004 ...or 005... Meaningful cold can take place. It's this plaguing seasonal trend that killing me - insane. I have never seen the atmosphere be so singularly deconstructive toward one specific physical event - snow. Now that we're getting veritable heat waves in March ...seemingly unrelenting, and having operational runs trying build height back up next week.... I mean, what are we to think! Yea this weather is "unbelievable" but when the hell are we going to get something interesting? I was just watching twc and the midwest is forecast for 6-12"+ of rain. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 not enough wind until thursday or friday IN ADDITION...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER MAY COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. Ahhh...makes sense. What a tinderbox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Ahhh...makes sense. What a tinderbox I think this airmass is more moist than your typical spring torch...the PWAT anomalies up north are ridiculous. It's in the low 70s in Michigan right now lol. BDL only dropped under 50% RH this afternoon for a short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Just went outside and heard leaves moving around like it was raining went inside to grab a flashlight to look and noticed a crapload of worms coming out everywhere!!! I never seen anything like it crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I think this airmass is more moist than your typical spring torch...the PWAT anomalies up north are ridiculous. It's in the low 70s in Michigan right now lol. BDL only dropped under 50% RH this afternoon for a short time. An AFD from state college a couple days ago referenced PWATS around 6 to 7 standard deviations above normal, which is extraordinary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Even more worms now what is causing this? They are everywhere!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Found blizzard of 78 herald today... pretty sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 nice wx. haven't stopped by for a while but i usually on post in winter.... ski'd wildcat sunday "funday" and it was a blast....got a hell of a tan in short sleeves....at 4k summit it was at least 60 lol (seem'd like it) nice walks around the lake in wakefield....chicks in shorts.......lets do 70's again tommorrow enjoy everyone. BTV disco was fun to read....they said they'll be talkin bout this for years....i mean breaking records by 8-10 degrees . wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Seems like models shaved temps aloft just a wee bit. Maybe mid 80s Thursday..but still ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Friday still looks mild too...especially over CT. Maybe 70s there. Cutoff gets squashed to the south...which sucks because we need the rain. Then very chilly early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 looks like we start the day off in the upper 30's...temp of 39.9...will still drop for another 1-2hrs...and then BRING IT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I wonder if BOS stays near 65 for a low Thursday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 MET is 77, 81, 83 the next 3 days for CON. 80s for 5 straight days in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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