OKpowdah Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 It's a good point about the MJO, but I'm a little peevish on the MJO "ability" to exert on the field for wave spaces that are Western Pac--> Dateline, do to the deconstructive vs constructive superposition against the background ENSO state. By the way...in a somewhat unrelated matter, there is a eastward diving Kelvin wave so perhaps the SST distribution changes heading into summer. Back to the regularly scheduled program ... We saw a whopper 7-8-1 translation appeal zippo on the overal circulation from Hawaii to Greenland; contrasting, we saw a similar magnitude 4-5-6 (on-going), and it's hell hath no fiery like an MJO in Phase 4 on this damn pattern. NCEP also mentioned in an Extended FD about the current ENSO being in constructive wave interference with the Marine subcontinent phase spaces. The idea has merit. But ...as Scott has adroitly pointed out as of late, as the month ends and we head into April, the seasonally changing R- numbers might flip the script on the MJO correlation some; or at least disrupt it enough to enter some uncertainty. Strongly agree with you on the MJO. The last cycle through 7-8-1 had very little influence, and I do think the phase space projection was more an artifact of the EOF definitions than a true reflection on the state of tropical forcing at that point. However, we did see a pretty big dent in La Nina coinciding with this wave. At this point, we are positioned back in a strong La Nina regime ... very low AAM, tropical forcing around Indonesia, etc. ... and the warming in the Nino regions has paused for the time being. But we're also now seeing this sign of a huge negative feedback emerging (i.e. the massive positive AAM tendency). Maybe should this MJO wave maintain intensity into the western and central Pacific, we see a clearer influence in the large scale circulation than last time, with less fight from La Nina. I think that this wave, along with whatever FW event we get, should put the last nail in the coffin for La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 the gfs still looks insanely warm next mon-thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Strongly agree with you on the MJO. The last cycle through 7-8-1 had very little influence, and I do think the phase space projection was more an artifact of the EOF definitions than a true reflection on the state of tropical forcing at that point. However, we did see a pretty big dent in La Nina coinciding with this wave. At this point, we are positioned back in a strong La Nina regime ... very low AAM, tropical forcing around Indonesia, etc. ... and the warming in the Nino regions has paused for the time being. But we're also now seeing this sign of a huge negative feedback emerging (i.e. the massive positive AAM tendency). Maybe should this MJO wave maintain intensity into the western and central Pacific, we see a clearer influence in the large scale circulation than last time, with less fight from La Nina. I think that this wave, along with whatever FW event we get, should put the last nail in the coffin for La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Happy birthday Sammy. 21 today.. Will you rip back 21 brews tonight? Thanks Kev! I plan to take a shot for every inch of snow we got this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Hi all, we've been discussing this somewhat in the latter pages of the nearing 50 pager. There are some subtle yet emerging signals that we may turn colder, winterlike not impossible, at the close of this month and heading into the first week of April. Others have heen been discussing this as well. The overnight teleconnectors from both the CPC and CDC came in with considerablydownward moving EPO numbers, as well as the NAO to some lesser obvious degree. For those hoping for a last hurrah, it's the best sign you've got for the time being. By the way, regarding the preceding warm signal on-going and next week. Firstly, this backdoor wedgy we're getting shouldn't really be considered much of a break. Do to it's locarl spatial scale ...it's really a "dent" considering the NE sector as a whole. Anyway, philosophy aside, the 00z operational Euro appears to be a slightly cooler outlier compared to the mean. Newbie question alert: What effect, if any, will the PNA have on the possible pattern disruption towards the end of the month? It looks like it's currently progged to bottom out - and stay there through the beginning of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Thanks Steve hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Vim toot is feet deep in snow Vim toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Man what a day this has turned into. Even I underestimated how much sun we'd see. Wonder if BDL can get into the low 60's..Will be close..but 59-60 might do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Newbie question alert: What effect, if any, will the PNA have on the possible pattern disruption towards the end of the month? It looks like it's currently progged to bottom out - and stay there through the beginning of April. Not sure it will have much if any... The PNA is modestly positive now... after some up down action it ends up near 0.0 at month's end. That's not really sending a very clear trend either way. 0.0 means no skill; it doesn't mean warm or cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 In an ideal world (...seeing as I love dystopia themes and want more than anything to see society brought to its knees) we get 2 solid weeks of 70s and 80s, then the biggest blizzard EVER ...regardless of month, since the beginning of time, in the first week of April. The shear horror in contrast and unmitigated impact would be so delicious. mmm, yummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Man what a day this has turned into. Even I underestimated how much sun we'd see. Wonder if BDL can get into the low 60's..Will be close..but 59-60 might do it Yeah... awesomely sunny and in the 40s.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Pick hinted at the possible return of winter on his FB page so it must be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Balmy 45F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Man what a day this has turned into. Even I underestimated how much sun we'd see. Wonder if BDL can get into the low 60's..Will be close..but 59-60 might do it yeah amazing out there. finally touched 50F at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Judging by the NOGAPS..... the 12z Euro is going to be interesting in its D5-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 yeah amazing out there. finally touched 50F at BDL. 55 or 56 will be the max probably. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Well it's safe to say I think that I handled the forecast mighty fine for interior areas today. I receive an A++ today..No question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 55 or 56 will be the max probably. AWT. yeah maybe on the asphalt out there at BDL. KTOL might touch 50F maybe. he usually runs about 10F warmer than ORH so figure ORH is around 40F - his Davis probably registers 49 or 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 In an ideal world (...seeing as I love dystopia themes and want more than anything to see society brought to its knees) we get 2 solid weeks of 70s and 80s, then the biggest blizzard EVER ...regardless of month, since the beginning of time, in the first week of April. The shear horror in contrast and unmitigated impact would be so delicious. mmm, yummy. Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Jumped up to 47F here. 47F and partly sunny now...more typical mid March day. Although with the low it will still go in as solidly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 yeah maybe on the asphalt out there at BDL. KTOL might touch 50F maybe. he usually runs about 10F warmer than ORH so figure ORH is around 40F - his Davis probably registers 49 or 50F. His Davis is probably surrounded by a melting pile of crap from March 1st and registers 35.6F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 wow...MEX is even low 60s at HYA next week. climo is like 45/46. that's impressive. and will still bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 wow...MEX is even low 60s at HYA next week. climo is like 45/46. that's impressive. and will still bust low. D3 Euro looks ominous with it ridge in the east appeal; D4 just oddly spontaneous in its collapsing the height field ...not sure where that is coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Another day of tanning out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 49.7 here a little cold for that Another day of tanning out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Another day of tanning out there. Suprised you havent mentioned the 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 almost appears the Euro has an MCS rattling around the upper OV at D4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Another day of tanning out there. You tan when it's 50 degrees out? Most places are stuck in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 it continues on D5...seems to be convective feedback inducing a vort max that bores it's way through the ridge SW of New England...This effectively stops the warm from ever getting here at least through D6... Not likely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 You tan when it's 50 degrees out? Most places are stuck in the 40s. He's being absurd to get a rise out of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.