ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Ukie looks pretty similar to NAM...its a bit slower though...but it brings the 0C 850 line about to the MA/CT border before collapsing back SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think this is a low end warning event for northern ct and most of mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The "dashed line of death" on the RGEM is ALWAYS, always north of most guidance. It's smack dab almost over me at 12z Thursday. GFS is off the rocker again....long as Ukie and Euro stay chilly game on, forget the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 6-8" is my call for Southern Burlington, MA. GL all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think this is a low end warning event for northern ct and most of mass I would take that statement even further and say anyone North of a BDL-PVD line. BOS is really in the best spot for jackpot snows outside of the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I would take that statement even further and say anyone North of a BDL-PVD line. BOS is really in the best spot for jackpot snows outside of the higher elevations. But their proximity to the coast might hurt them if a coastal front does develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM and GFS trended a bit colder in WNY on the 12z runs. Still very precarious...but maybe we can pull something off. SREF probs are awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 the nam is significantly wetter than the euro And overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 But their proximity to the coast might hurt them if a coastal front does develop. The immediate coastal areas of Ern. Mass. and maybe downtown BOS would be at the most risk for that. But they are in a safer spot than N CT/ N RI, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Coastal Ct. is going to see little in the way of snow, methinks. If you set the over/under on Kevin at 4, I'm gonna take the under ATM. Yeah, as of now I went coating in sw coastal ct, 1-2" on a line from dxr-snc-gon, 2-4" nw hills to ijd, 3-5 extreme NE corner with more out toward orh and bos (6"?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 These overunning events in La Nina winters just aren't too kind once out into the Lake Plain. I remember 07-08 and a few events were busts from SYR west as the mild air just streamed in...and from here to central/northern NE they were good snow producers. Of course this winter you needed at least 50-75 more miles north/east so we also were in the screw zone here except on Jan 12th. NAM and GFS trended a bit colder in WNY on the 12z runs. Still very precarious...but maybe we can pull something off. SREF probs are awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Timing could make this a rough afternoon for school admins with buses heading home @ 2-3pm and heavier snow moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeah, as of now I went coating in sw coastal ct, 1-2" on a line from dxr-snc-gon, 2-4" nw hills to ijd, 3-5 extreme NE corner with more out toward orh and bos (6"?) Yeah, that sounds reasonable and in line with my thinking. An hour or two longer with snow is going to make a big difference with regards to totals... battle ground looks to set up over NE Ct for a while so they are the wild card. Remember folks, all it takes is a thin layer or warm air aloft to create pingers or mangled flakeage. As Will pointed out, we will have a nice battle ground setting up in the mid levels between the high to the NE and the WAA surging in from the SW. All this will help to enhance low level convergence and lift... should be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Not sure if anybody had posted Gray's snowfall map but here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Timing could make this a rough afternoon for school admins with buses heading home @ 2-3pm and heavier snow moving in. I could see some earlier dismissals. My son's district delays/cancels/dismisses at the first sign of snow. He had 2 snow days, and 3 delays after Rocktober. 1 town away, where my wife works and they got a little more snow, no delays or snow days...lol . She is hoping for no snow days. The only reason I would want one is to ski real snow at WaWa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Thinking back to my HS days in the stones ages of the early/mid 80's what would usually happen is they would want to get their lunches in so they'd dismiss immediately after the last lunch session...to beat the wx. Timing could make this a rough afternoon for school admins with buses heading home @ 2-3pm and heavier snow moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeah, that sounds reasonable and in line with my thinking. An hour or two longer with snow is going to make a big difference with regards to totals... battle ground looks to set up over NE Ct for a while so they are the wild card Remember folks, all it takes is a thin layer or warm air aloft to create pingers or mangled flakeage. As Will pointed out, we will have a nice battle ground setting up in the mid levels between the high to the NE and the WAA surging in from the SW. All this will help to enhance low level convergence and lift... should be fun to watch. Right. There'll be a significant warm tongue at ~800mb once the WAA begins which will be basically from the onset of precip in CT. It may be dumping in putnam and pinging in lisbon 15miles ssw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I I seen this storms before that dump heavy snow in inland ct area likely afternoon and even and the warm never comes in or comes at the end of precip . Models will change back and forth so will likely go back colder run tonight again . i say 5-9 inches in northern ct area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Unscientific, but what often happens is the surge of waa falls as snow as the intensity is good and can overcome the encroaching warm layer.....then as the best passes the warm layer can win and you go to pingers. Of course that does degrade snowflake quality before the actual sleet moves in. I the NAM gives me 1.2" qpf ...I'd be happy if that yielded 6 inches of snow and/or snow/sleet. Right. There'll be a significant warm tongue at ~800mb once the WAA begins which will be basically from the onset of precip in CT. It may be dumping in putnam and pinging in lisbon 15miles ssw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Not sure if anybody had posted Gray's snowfall map but here it is. Thats reasonable, Only spitting out about .50" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Interesting Dave that I have just about caught up with you on season snowfall. But hey I would have traded in all those 1-3" LES scraps for the 20" in October probably. I could see some earlier dismissals. My son's district delays/cancels/dismisses at the first sign of snow. He had 2 snow days, and 3 delays after Rocktober. 1 town away, where my wife works and they got a little more snow, no delays or snow days...lol . She is hoping for no snow days. The only reason I would want one is to ski real snow at WaWa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Unscientific, but what often happens is the surge of waa falls as snow as the intensity is good and can overcome the encroaching warm layer.....then as the best passes the warm layer can win and you go to pingers. Of course that does degrade snowflake quality before the actual sleet moves in. I the NAM gives me 1.2" qpf ...I'd be happy if that yielded 6 inches of snow and/or snow/sleet. Yeah I think you're good for atleast 6". But what I worry about for central and northern ct is that with about 1" qpf, you get .5-.7" as hvy accumulating snow wed afternoon and evening, with mangled flakes then pingers and rain on wed night and thursday. Some of that snow could be a lot of mangled flakes with warmth aloft...resulting in 2-5" despite a lot if it falling as 'snow' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Interesting Dave that I have just about caught up with you on season snowfall. But hey I would have traded in all those 1-3" LES scraps for the 20" in October probably. Easy to catch someone who is standing still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Except I'd seriously doubt you get any plain rain through mid morning Thursday. I mean it may bounce into the mid 30's after that but it looks like the event is confined to areas north of CT at that point. Yeah I think you're good for atleast 6". But what I worry about for central and northern ct is that with about 1" qpf, you get .5-.7" as hvy accumulating snow wed afternoon and evening, with mangled flakes then pingers and rain on wed night and thursday. Some of that snow could be a lot of mangled flakes with warmth aloft...resulting in 2-5" despite a lot if it falling as 'snow' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Except I'd seriously doubt you get any plain rain through mid morning Thursday. I mean it may bounce into the mid 30's after that but it looks like the event is confined to areas north of CT at that point. Meant pingers through atleast 12z thurs with light precip and probably plain rain to atleast DXR HFD PVD by mid morning thurs...most damage done by then though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I could see some earlier dismissals. My son's district delays/cancels/dismisses at the first sign of snow. He had 2 snow days, and 3 delays after Rocktober. 1 town away, where my wife works and they got a little more snow, no delays or snow days...lol . She is hoping for no snow days. The only reason I would want one is to ski real snow at WaWa You usually post that his school has cancelled about 3 days in advance of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks like BOX has tweaked it's snowfall map a little. Suggests a bit more taint than the prior one I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks like BOX has tweaked it's snowfall map a little. Suggests a bit more taint than the prior one I think? Looks the same to my naked eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks the same to my naked eyes. yeah, looks 99% the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks the same to my naked eyes. I just went to check and indeed it is. Seems they reissued the same one at 11:30. I had though the earlier one had more in the northern valley. Sorry for the false alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.