MAG5035 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 USA USA USA USA USA Screw those cheese eating surrender monkeys, and I say this despite being friends with a French couple here. AMURICA!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If you're hanging with the GFS you also gotta accept the temp issues it brings...at this rate the 0Z tonight will have UNV raining! Or at least rain to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 How did you know easternwx? no really though, any idea? Early Sunday maybe This has a better chance of missing south then bringing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 If you're hanging with the GFS you also gotta accept the temp issues it brings...at this rate the 0Z tonight will have UNV raining! Or at least rain to snow I'm going with a big se shift at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 LOL sorry guys! I meant the 18z DGEX was a miss to the south, not the 18z GFS! My bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 LOL sorry guys! I meant the 18z DGEX was a miss to the south, not the 18z GFS! My bad... Dgex is a useless pos model. Who cares what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Dgex is a useless pos model. Who cares what it shows. What exactly is a good model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Dgex is a useless pos model. Who cares what it shows. Haha yeah, and that is why I said "like it even matters"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm going with a big se shift at 0z. That wouldn't shock me. Maybe even a little se of the 12z run. Just as long as it doesn't go to the 12z euro. Then we'd have to turn out the lights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 18z GEFS is NIIIIIICCCCCEEEEE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm going with a big se shift at 0z. Shift as in euro placement of the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Some really nice hits in here from the 18z ensembles. Only looks like one really wraps up enough to push us to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Saturday Night Overcast with a chance of snow and rain showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain showers. Low of 27F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of snow 70% with accumulations up to 9 in. possible. Anyone know if this is a new product, this is the wunderground forecast for york, pa area. LOL. zip 17363 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Shift as in euro placement of the low? A little north of there. But still not good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What exactly is a good model? Euro, Ukie, Gfs tops the ranks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro, Ukie, Gfs tops the ranks. I'm just busting on ya since last night you said the Ukie was garbage. I think we all stand pretty well. Usually the solutions end up between the GFS and Euro. So at least plain rain can pretty much be written off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 love the mean, that would be a great track for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm just busting on ya since last night you said the Ukie was garbage. I think we all stand pretty well. Usually the solutions end up between the GFS and Euro. So at least plain rain can pretty much be written off. I think it is. Last night it was a complete miss. Now it is like gfs. It flips flops like every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 18z gfs clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Sat night's forecast from wunderground: Overcast with a chance of rain, then ice pellets and a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 30F with a windchill as low as 27F. Winds from the NNW at 5-15 mph shifting to the ENE after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70%. Snow accumulations of 6 in. possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 18z gfs clown map If that verified, Mr. Williamsport would have to eat about oh, 300 or so "winter is over, see you next year" posts... In all seriousness, I hope he gets nailed with this. It's been a tough, tough stretch up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A tough three years iirc up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'll try this again in the real thread...someone needs to close the old one. I'm looking forward to dual pol data for Central PA! PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 546 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... ...NWS STATE COLLEGE KCCX WILL BE UPGRADED TO DUAL POLARIZATION AND BE OUT OF SERVICE DURING LATE FEBRUARY THIS YEAR. THE STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA WSR-88D RADAR /KCCX/ WILL BE DOWN FOR AN UPGRADE TO DUAL POLARIZATION TECHNOLOGY /DUAL-POL/ DURING THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY 2012. THIS IS THE LARGEST HARDWARE UPGRADE TO THE RADAR SINCE ITS DEPLOYMENT IN THE EARLY 1990S. DUAL-POL TECHNOLOGY OFFERS A NEW SET OF TOOLS TO BETTER DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN RAIN...SNOW...HAIL...MIXED PRECIPITATION AND NON-PRECIPITATION ECHOES. THIS UPGRADE PROVIDES FORECASTERS WITH BETTER RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ESTIMATES AND ENHANCED INFORMATION TO MORE EFFECTIVELY FORECAST SEVERE STORMS AND WINTER WEATHER. DUAL-POL UTILIZES A POLARIMETRIC BEAM THAT DETECTS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL ORIENTATION OF ATMOSPHERIC TARGETS. CONVENTIONAL RADAR ONLY DETECTS THE HORIZONTAL ORIENTATION. THE ROUGHLY WEEK LONG INSTALLATION PROCESS WILL BEGIN ON FEBRUARY 24TH AND WILL BE COMPLETED BY MARCH 2ND. DURING THIS TIME...NEIGHBORING WSR-88D RADARS MAY BE USED AS FOLLOWS... KDIX - MT HOLLY NJ KLWX - STERLING VA KPBZ - PITTSBURGH PA KBUF - BUFFALO NY KBGM - BINGHAMTON NY TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE DUAL POLARIZATION UPGRADE... AND FOR ACCESS TO DUAL-POL TRAINING FOR NON-NWS METEOROLOGISTS...PLEASE VISIT... WWW.WDTB.NOAA.GOV/COURSES/DUALPOL/OUTREACH /ALL LOWER CASE/ THIS MESSAGE WILL BE RESENT ON FEBRUARY 21ST...AND AGAIN ON FEBRUARY 24TH. FOR MORE INFORMATION OR QUESTIONS...PLEASE CONTACT... GREG DEVOIR /RADAR OPERATIONS PROGRAM LEADER/ [email protected] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'll try this again in the real thread...someone needs to close the old one. I'm looking forward to dual pol data for Central PA! PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 546 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... ...NWS STATE COLLEGE KCCX WILL BE UPGRADED TO DUAL POLARIZATION AND BE OUT OF SERVICE DURING LATE FEBRUARY THIS YEAR. THE STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA WSR-88D RADAR /KCCX/ WILL BE DOWN FOR AN UPGRADE TO DUAL POLARIZATION TECHNOLOGY /DUAL-POL/ DURING THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY 2012. THIS IS THE LARGEST HARDWARE UPGRADE TO THE RADAR SINCE ITS DEPLOYMENT IN THE EARLY 1990S. DUAL-POL TECHNOLOGY OFFERS A NEW SET OF TOOLS TO BETTER DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN RAIN...SNOW...HAIL...MIXED PRECIPITATION AND NON-PRECIPITATION ECHOES. THIS UPGRADE PROVIDES FORECASTERS WITH BETTER RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ESTIMATES AND ENHANCED INFORMATION TO MORE EFFECTIVELY FORECAST SEVERE STORMS AND WINTER WEATHER. DUAL-POL UTILIZES A POLARIMETRIC BEAM THAT DETECTS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL ORIENTATION OF ATMOSPHERIC TARGETS. CONVENTIONAL RADAR ONLY DETECTS THE HORIZONTAL ORIENTATION. THE ROUGHLY WEEK LONG INSTALLATION PROCESS WILL BEGIN ON FEBRUARY 24TH AND WILL BE COMPLETED BY MARCH 2ND. DURING THIS TIME...NEIGHBORING WSR-88D RADARS MAY BE USED AS FOLLOWS... KDIX - MT HOLLY NJ KLWX - STERLING VA KPBZ - PITTSBURGH PA KBUF - BUFFALO NY KBGM - BINGHAMTON NY TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE DUAL POLARIZATION UPGRADE... AND FOR ACCESS TO DUAL-POL TRAINING FOR NON-NWS METEOROLOGISTS...PLEASE VISIT... WWW.WDTB.NOAA.GOV/COURSES/DUALPOL/OUTREACH /ALL LOWER CASE/ THIS MESSAGE WILL BE RESENT ON FEBRUARY 21ST...AND AGAIN ON FEBRUARY 24TH. FOR MORE INFORMATION OR QUESTIONS...PLEASE CONTACT... GREG DEVOIR /RADAR OPERATIONS PROGRAM LEADER/ [email protected] I literally just read this on the CTP page about 2 minutes ago haha. I'm gonna have to see about getting that dual polarization package for my gr2analyst. That'll be a blast if we get any winter storms during that period of time when the radars down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I literally just read this on the CTP page about 2 minutes ago haha. I'm gonna have to see about getting that dual polarization package for my gr2analyst. That'll be a blast if we get any winter storms during that period of time when the radars down. Yeah the precip will be a total surprise...should be interesting. I have RadarScope on my phone, so I'll have access to dual pol once it's up and running. Awesome app. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I literally just read this on the CTP page about 2 minutes ago haha. I'm gonna have to see about getting that dual polarization package for my gr2analyst. That'll be a blast if we get any winter storms during that period of time when the radars down. Watch first severe event of the year occur that week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just thinking out loud here... I was reading about some errors with the GFS. I' m I correct they won't be corrected until this upcoming run. Also I was wondering once the Euro heads that far ENE what is the percentage of it coming back? Tomorrow the Nam should be in it's range. It will be interesting what it does. Wouldn't want to be a Met this weekend. Tony and Mag you got this figured out yet? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If that verified, Mr. Williamsport would have to eat about oh, 300 or so "winter is over, see you next year" posts... In all seriousness, I hope he gets nailed with this. It's been a tough, tough stretch up that way. Don't worry it won't....oh and fellas, winter's over, see you all next year!!!!!!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just thinking out loud here... I was reading about some errors with the GFS. I' m I correct they won't be corrected until this upcoming run. Also I was wondering once the Euro heads that far ENE what is the percentage of it coming back? Tomorrow the Nam should be in it's range. It will be interesting what it does. Wouldn't want to be a Met this weekend. Tony and Mag you got this figured out yet? :-) I'll be the first to say the long range NAM should be taken with a biiiig grain of salt. But I'm cautiously optimistic-along with some others here-now that the (if somewhat improperly initialized) GFS has been onboard for two runs along with the UKMET. If the Euro even trends toward the GFS it'll be good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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