Jmister Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I already see less interaction between northern and southern branches on the 00z through 36 than 18z and 12z… Hopefully it can still work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Have you seen some of the newer episodes? There was one called "Storm of the Century". A hurricane was going to directly hit Philly and the gang went to their usual debauchery trying to prepare for the storm (and get the hot news reporter to ride out the storm at the bar with them). Then at the end of the episode the forecast ended up being wrong and they were only supposed to get drizzle instead. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZXx-CB9iR4 LOL...sure did man, wouldn't miss it! Hilarious! Onto the storm, looks like branches more separated this go-round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looking a little better by 48... BTW, do you think that episode was ripping on Irene? Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ALEEETTT ALEEET 0Z about to show huge ECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 ALEEETTT ALEEET 0Z about to show huge ECS I'd be cautious about that. Definitely less amplified than 18z, and even 12z. Still will be more of a storm than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'd be cautious about that. Definitely less amplified than 18z, and even 12z. Still will be more of a storm than the other models. Bomb upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'd be cautious about that. Definitely less amplified than 18z, and even 12z. Still will be more of a storm than the other models. SE PA should hope for a more southerly solution than the 18Z showed anyway. Bet the NE subforum is going wild right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol weak as **** but still manages to get massively warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'd be cautious about that. Definitely less amplified than 18z, and even 12z. Still will be more of a storm than the other models. Comparing around the hour 54 timeframe (hour 60 18z) seems like they're fairly similar but a bit faster on both streams. Now seeing these subsequent starting to roll in... oh man haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I hope it rains in Philly, that means it's coming down heavy here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 umm Feb 5th 2010 redux..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I-95 special. Let them enjoy this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Ohhh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol weak as **** but still manages to get massively warm. hasn't disappeared though... still strange in how it gets there but still potential... hopefully we can manage more overnight than daytime with timing... on sunday peak sun angle/length of day/etc is similar to october 24th i believe (maybe 23rd) for comparison sake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 umm Feb 5th 2010 redux..? What? That isn't even close to Feb 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Been there, lived through this little tale before. Storm forms, looks promising and shunts east once it gets to SNJ. And to Jmister, yeah, I think they we're taking a pot shot at the Irene situation....lol. Good stuff!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 What? That isn't even close to Feb 2010. The precip shield is similar I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 umm Feb 5th 2010 redux..? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2010/us0205j3.php i wouldn't compare this to that one at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 hasn't disappeared though... still strange in how it gets there but still potential... hopefully we can manage more overnight than daytime with timing... on sunday peak sun angle/length of day/etc is similar to october 24th i believe (maybe 23rd) for comparison sake Yeah. I was referring to 2m temps which is I guess was dumb since there still is plenty of time to sort that out....but still We go from a sub 980 bomb (where you can expect strong WAA with BL issues for those too close to the warm sector) to a 992 fart but you still see the massive warm up at the surface.... just made me wince a bit. Still plenty of time to work the kinks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The precip shield is similar I meant. Not even close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Still not terrible. If we can get the ensembles to continue to improve, and especially if we can get the euro on board, I'm still pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not even close... I don't think people understood what I meant. Not the coverage or placement of it just the way it thins out then deforms over the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 So it's similar because it's weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah. I was referring to 2m temps which is I guess was dumb since there still is plenty of time to sort that out....but still We go from a sub 980 bomb (where you can expect strong WAA with BL issues for those too close to the warm sector) to a 992 fart but you still see massive warm up at the surface.... just made me wince a bit. Still plenty of time to work the kinks out. At least the GFS didn't yank the storm off the coast of SC or anything. Actually somewhat of a compromise of the 12/18z GFS type solutions and 12z Euro. Now if we can get the Euro/CMC headin that direction we might have something we could loosely define as a consensus. The late fades a killer..especially the further northwest one goes in PA, as is the lack of dynamic cooling from a more rapidly developing system for the further southeast. But i love how that thing comes out of the Gulf. As i've said already, a good gulf storm coming up inside like that usually finds a way to snow on at least a good part of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Still not terrible. If we can get the ensembles to continue to improve, and especially if we can get the euro on board, I'm still pleased. 2-3" here taken completely literally. I'd take that-and people in Harrisburg and that area should be very happy with amounts. That shows that the earlier errors with the GFS didn't have a massive impact on the solution...of course it still has plenty of time to trend NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Best storm we have had in awhile to track. That's an improvement. Lets see if the Euro heads north tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 UKMET is phased and still north. Here is is at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'll be happy with the 1 to 3 this storm MAY bring. If you live north of and MDT to AOO line, you know these types of storms don't trend much better, so take what you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'll be happy with the 1 to 3 this storm MAY bring. If you live north of and MDT to AOO line, you know these types of storms don't trend much better, so take what you can get. Huh? I've had plenty of times when the models showed a big hit a ways out and trended NW to screw me over. Granted this wasn't in cursed C PA, but some optimism never hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'll be happy with the 1 to 3 this storm MAY bring. If you live north of and MDT to AOO line, you know these types of storms don't trend much better, so take what you can get. I didn't get less than 4 from any of the storms in 09-10. You keep including us in your screw zone and that's not always the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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