JSTWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 at 60, upper low closing off and starting to phase @546dm over MO. Ridging increased over the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 @66hrs, 999 low in North GA, compared to a 1003 scooting off the SC coast on the 12z... 500 is opened up, but this is better than 12z and much better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Precip field much further north than 12z. Still a "south of I-80 special", but a significant jump from 12 and 18z. North by about 40 miles from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It'll be interesting to see if tomorrow's 12z nam keeps things closed at 500 a bit longer. That's all we need to bring this a bit further north so everybody gets something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On to the 0z GFS. The nam is closer, which is a great sign at this point for the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This has a feeling of Dec 19th 2009. This is about where we were at this time for that storm. Then it shifted another 100 miles north. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Well, that's enough to raise my interest again. And lose some sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Heading to bed, I've watched this story play out too many times to lose sleep over...especially with 2 exams. G'night folks. I'll be dreaming of my '93 redux. Man I have nothing against you at all, but the past week or so you're being really, really whiny - to the point it's painful to read your posts. Maybe chill out and calm down a bit? I mean you got nearly 2" snow today yet aren't happy still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Man I have nothing against you at all, but the past week or so you're being really, really whiny - to the point it's painful to read your posts. Maybe chill out and calm down a bit? I mean you got nearly 2" snow today yet aren't happy still. Amen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 RGEM going neg at 48 already?... hmmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Man I have nothing against you at all, but the past week or so you're being really, really whiny - to the point it's painful to read your posts. Maybe chill out and calm down a bit? I mean you got nearly 2" snow today yet aren't happy still. That was crazy. We still have some on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 How does that mid stream vort possibly flatten the trough like the NAM suggests? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 How does that mid stream vort possibly flatten the trough like the NAM suggests? I really think it's just out of the nam's range when it starts to flatten. This thing has more northward potential. 7-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 How does that mid stream vort possibly flatten the trough like the NAM suggests? Good point. NAM past 48hrs so who knows. Very good trend thoogh. Less confluence and stronger vort. Could continue to shift north if these pieces stay in place. And lift a bit more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm all in...north train who's comin aboard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I really think it's just out of the nam's range when it starts to flatten. This thing has more northward potential. 7-2 I'll give a double thumbs up to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 only noticeable thing so far on the gfs compared to the nam (at 30), is a bit less trough/confluence in ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 only noticeable thing so far on the gfs compared to the nam (at 30), is a bit less trough/confluence in ne Good. Should allow for southern stream to move more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Good. Should allow for southern stream to move more north. so far, we're not phasing up as quick as the nam did. but it is a bit north of the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 gfs is a bit stronger, but further east with the low once it gets into the srn apps. looks like it's trying to jump to the coast too fast. the nam was still in nrn GA, while the gfs has the low in central SC. typical bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GFS is actually south. lol. Ya ok find that hard to believe looking at less confluence and the low still getting smashed. Later runs might reverse that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Hopefully the euro will come back to where it was yesterday and look like tonight's nam. baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 GGEM way south. Will wait till 12Z tomorrow before bailing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Since when did the mid-atlantic become the king of snow storms? 09? Where are all the true PA storms anymore. Ugh. F those guys down there. 90" in 09-10 and like 30" last year. It's our turn!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You sound like me. Hmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You sound like me. Hmmmm... Nah. Yours are more like. It never snows here!! And then you just had 2"... and then it never snows here!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Dude, what did you end up with in 09-10?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Dude, what did you end up with in 09-10?? Around 60". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 CTP has taken notice.. theres part of the long term section updated: PHASING OF STORM SYSTEM REMAINS THE CHALLENGE. SHORTWAVE TRACKING SEWD ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE AND ANOTHER THROUGH MONTANA TONIGHT. ELONGATED NORTHERN PORTION OF DIGGING WA SHORTWAVE PLAYS INTO EVENTUAL UPPER CUTOFF FARTHER EAST OVER THE MID WEST AND OHIO VALLEY. IT APPEARS THE WA SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING MORE STRONGLY THIS EVENING THAN PREVIOUS ECMWF...GFS...AND NAM SOLUTIONS HAD. PHASING APPEARS BETTER DOWNSTREAM WITH DESERT SOUTHWEST CUTOFF...AND 00Z NAM HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOLIDLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH A FEW INCHES ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE TO PSBLY SEVERAL INCHES NR THE MD BORDER. AFTERNOON FORECAST TREND FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY OF RAISING POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER WAS A GOOD ONE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH THE OVERNIGHT SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY ASSUMING GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO PRECIP SHIELD AND LOW TRACK. A FURTHER TREND NORTHWARD IN STORM TRACK WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...AND WILL MENTION IN UPDATED HWO. GFS was kinda meh though, the 18z had snuck precip back into the southern tier but 0z held it at bay on the mason dixon. I do still kinda look suspiciously at NAM/GFS evolution of the low jumping to the coast. We shall see with the Euro, but looks like they'll be hanging on to the chance pops in the southern tier overnight to start tomorrow..which is probably wise. I don't really think it's hard to imagine that at least US22/ to I-78 and below ends up back in the game for accumulating snows. I'm still pulling for a deeper system + a more expansive shield to deliver something to our more northern gang as well but given the progressive pattern progged at this point thats going to be difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 0z Euro def not going to be pulling any miracles tonight, via text still keeps even DC a fringe storm (0.12") for goodness sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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