The Iceman Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 last thread was over 1000 replies so continue here...12z gfs says big snowstorm for the interior but only model to show that thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 12z ukmet agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1137 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012 VALID FEB 15/1200 UTC THRU FEB 19/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE N. PLAINS... PREFERENCE: GFS OR ECMWF THE NAM IS A BIT FASTER AND STRONGER THAN THE GFS/00Z ECMWF AND ONLY HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z UKMET. THUS...THE NAM IS CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY SOLUTION. OTHERWISE... THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE COMPARABLE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS... LARGE-SCALE MODEL FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR. ...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FRI-SAT... PREFERENCE: ECMWF THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WORSE INITIALIZATION OF THE TROUGH'S PLACEMENT OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NUNAVUT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC TO CUT THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...WHICH THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS THE ENTIRE GFS SOLUTION. THE COMBINATION OF WORSE INITIALIZATION AND QUESTIONABLE AND EVEN SUSPICIOUS PHASING OF THE SEPARATE STREAMS IS SUFFICIENT TO DISCARD THE GFS PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE NAM BECOMES SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN WHICH ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT. GIVEN THE NARROWER WINDOW FOR DATA ASSIMILATION IN THE NAM VERSUS THE OTHER REMAINING SOLUTIONS...ALONG WITH THE CLUSTERING OF THE NON-NCEP MEMBERS...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE ECMWF. CONFIDENCE: LESS THAN AVERAGE ...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... PREFERENCE: BEFORE 12Z FRI...NAM OR ECMWF AFTER 12Z FRI...ECMWF THE NAM BECOMES SLOWER AND REMAINS STRONGER...WHILE THE GFS BECOMES MUCH FASTER LATER IN THE PERIOD COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RESPECTIVELY...DUE IN LARGE PART TO DIFFERING DEGREES OF INTERACTION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING TO ITS NORTH...WITH THE GFS ACTUALLY PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. DUE TO REASONS DESCRIBED IN THE SYSTEM SECTION ABOVE...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE DISCOUNTED AFTER REACHING MEXICO...WITH A PREFERENCE TOWARD THE ECMWF CAMP OF SOLUTIONS WHICH ALSO INCLUDES THE 00Z UKMET. CONFIDENCE: LESS THAN AVERAGE http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I am going to hug the 12z GEFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What is the time frame of the storm this weekend, if it does indeed arrive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 So..how are we looking? Better than we were 12 hours ago. GFS shows a major storm for true central PA (and for places SE albeit with p-type issues), and the ensemble mean has lighter precip but is colder. If the Euro is in agreement with the GFS I'll become a lot more interested, but as of now it's just a trend in a good direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Is now the proper time to crack a Chicken Capital WRF joke? Or should I just wait till the Euro denies the GFS again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I have a feeling we are being....TROLLED TO THE MAXXX!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Gfs/ukie vs ggem/euro hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 New HPC disco discounts the new, amplified UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 New HPC disco discounts the new, amplified UKMET. They always do that crap. When everything is amplified then what will they say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Euro says....YALL BEEN TROLLED Or the euro could be trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 F*ck the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 right now it's the ukmet/gfs vs euro/ggem...00z will be interesting to see what model was smoking something fierce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 right now it's the ukmet/gfs vs euro/ggem...00z will be interesting to see what model was smoking something fierce. Add jma to gfs/ukie lol http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 They always do that crap. When everything is amplified then what will they say? Model Initialization errors like in Dec 2010 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Maybe since it is so cold and snowy there, the serves froze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Add jma to gfs/ukie lol http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_120HR.gif JMA actually looks like a blend of the models....JMA ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 clown maps for the 12z gfs 4-6+ through lancaster lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Reading about shortwave issues with the 12z gfs and it should be thrown out as result? Any redtags weighing-in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Reading about shortwave issues with the 12z gfs and it should be thrown out as result? Any redtags weighing-in? They always act like it is a big deal when it's not. They are pretty much disregarding any model showing a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Eric Horst's update today: "A light to moderate rain event is on tap for Thursday, but it's the potential for a weekend snow storm that has people talking today. The ingredients for an east coast storm have been on the table for a few days now, but the models have been wildly inconsistent in handling the complex split flow pattern. The northern branch disturbance for the possible weekend storm is still north of the Arctic circle, while the southern branch system is only moving into SoCal today...and will close off and track slowly through the southwest states the next two days. Timing and phasing of these two disturbances is at the heart of the matter...and it's just too early to believe any given model solution (although some forecasters will surely wishcast and jump on the snowiest possible solution). So instead of reading the models, I choose to read the pattern...and the pattern this winter has favored Pacific storms taking charge of the outcome in the East. This trend would favor a storm coming farther north and west--rather than missing off the southeast coast--and so I feel there's reason to believe that a storm may affect the mid-Atlantic region this weekend. Still, how far north/west the precip will make it and how much cold air is available to generate snow (rather than rain) across the region are details that won't likely become known until Friday. So as of midday Wednesday, I prefer to talk about the potential for some snow here on Sunday rather than making an outright forecast for snow. Stay tuned..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Reading about shortwave issues with the 12z gfs and it should be thrown out as result? Any redtags weighing-in? GFS has had issues with how to deal with strength/speed/phasing of shortwaves for quite some time now. I wouldn't say you can throw it out just because of that though, otherwise why even look at that model. It's not like the operational is showing one thing and the ensemble members another. Several ensemble members show some form of a storm. I dont' think we can throw out either GFS or Euro just yet, just need to wait a little longer. The way this "winter" has been, the models really have not shown agreement on any big system until within 48-72 hours. Hopefully 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow will help one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 from the new england thread 12z euro ensembles def better than 00z ensemble mean. North, amped, and better digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 from the new england thread Perfect. 0Z should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 this is what we need.....come on PD3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 That blurb from Eric Horst is about as committed as you'll see from him 4 days out from any storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 That blurb from Eric Horst is about as committed as you'll see from him 4 days out from any storm. Was thinking the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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