sauss06 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'll be the first to say the long range NAM should be taken with a biiiig grain of salt. But I'm cautiously optimistic-along with some others here-now that the (if somewhat improperly initialized) GFS has been onboard for two runs along with the UKMET. If the Euro even trends toward the GFS it'll be good news. highlighted key word... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is me if the GFS looks the same Saturday night....and Williamsport's reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 EDIT out Christmas though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just thinking out loud here... I was reading about some errors with the GFS. I' m I correct they won't be corrected until this upcoming run. Also I was wondering once the Euro heads that far ENE what is the percentage of it coming back? Tomorrow the Nam should be in it's range. It will be interesting what it does. Wouldn't want to be a Met this weekend. Tony and Mag you got this figured out yet? :-) HPC was making a big deal out of the initialization in the PACNW. I'm not sure that it has a huge impact, but probably some. IMO, the state of the nao should allow anything coming out of the gulf on a sw-ne fashion should come further north than what the op euro has. The ec ensembles were further north and more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Itunis Guess I should have said Friday the nam should be within it's range. Not sure what I was thinking. Euro and the GFS should be interesting to see which way they trend. Thanks Tony! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hard to tell but, looks like NAM is coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM is close. Let the north shift begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hard to tell but, looks like NAM is coming north. Already saw folks in another subforum jumping off the bridge sayin NAM caved to the Euro when it was still pretty early in the run. Then OHH well its not too far off the GFS. Haha classic. Ultimately it looks good but seems destined to slide underneath. Were def looking golden as the low was already out of the gulf over LA. Seems like is may have some issues handling the low at the end of its range (almost appears like it tries to redevelop a new low off the NC coast). We got awhile yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Already saw folks in another subforum jumping off the bridge sayin NAM caved to the Euro when it was still pretty early in the run. Then OHH well its not too far off the GFS. Haha classic. Ultimately it looks good but seems destined to slide underneath. Were def looking golden as the low was already out of the gulf over LA. Seems like is may have some issues handling the low at the end of its range (almost appears like it tries to redevelop a new low off the NC coast). We got awhile yet. I used to really like the nam, but it's been really atrocious this year outside of 48 hours. Shame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wunderground forecast for sat night is down to 4." still too far out to commit to anything, I'm sure their forecast will vary quite a bit until the models come together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Is it me, or does the NAM look pretty cold for tmrw's event?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I used to really like the nam, but it's been really atrocious this year outside of 48 hours. Shame... It does get the thing pretty far north considering that the streams are still separate at h84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It does get the thing pretty far north considering that the streams are still separate at h84. Ya nam this far out is terrible. So it being that far north already is good. Onto the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Anyone interested in the NAM for tmrw's event...looks cold at 850 up this way. As for the other storm, I think we're about to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wunderground forecast for sat night is down to 4." still too far out to commit to anything, I'm sure their forecast will vary quite a bit until the models come together i don't know what they use to forecast this far out, but most likely it's garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Anyone interested in the NAM for tmrw's event...looks cold at 850 up this way.As for the other storm, I think we're about to be You gotta pay the troll toll to get into the boysoul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It does get the thing pretty far north considering that the streams are still separate at h84. Yeah. It's not far from us. I'd like to see what it does tomorrow at 12z. The big question is will the GFS continue on its amped up roid solution?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You gotta pay the troll toll to get into the boysoul Hahahaha, gotta love Always Sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 i don't know what they use to forecast this far out, but most likely it's garbage. Agreed. I just like that they are not withholding anything. Every other weather outlet, including NWS, is only saying low chance of snow. At least wunderground is announcing that the possibility exists for a significant event at this point. If things do start coming together, local news media probably won't run with it until within 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Agreed. I just like that they are not withholding anything. Every other weather outlet, including NWS, is only saying low chance of snow. At least wunderground is announcing that the possibility exists for a significant event at this point. If things do start coming together, local news media probably won't run with it until within 36 hours. i think it was ABC last year that had us in the 2 to 4" range in the january storm that dropped a foot here in lancaster. they are always last to pick up anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 SREFS starting to come on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Anyone interested in the NAM for tmrw's event...looks cold at 850 up this way. As for the other storm, I think we're about to be Does try to light up some blues initially around the IPT area on the p-types, but mainly rain. It did seem kinda chilly though, i'd probably expect to see period of snow before a changeover to light rain. Not really a ton of QPF progged for this system like a couple nights ago when there was a heavier slug of precip .. so any snowfall wouldn't amount to much most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You gotta pay the troll toll to get into the boysoul Oh god... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah. It's not far from us. I'd like to see what it does tomorrow at 12z. The big question is will the GFS continue on its amped up roid solution?? I just know that if this storm ends up happening for us...that the GFS is going to have the tenacity to pull the plug on this system for a run or so at some point soon. I was actually surprised the 18z went even more nw than the 12z.. but we'll know shortly with the 0z run and the newer sampled data where the GFS stands. Even a consensus between the Euro and GFS solutions we have right now would likely spell a good shot of snowfall for at least the southern third or more of PA. That gets into the finer details of the trajectory out of the Gulf and the NW extent of the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm willing to bet it misses me....and PSUHaz.....and 2001kx...and maybe Jamie....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm willing to bet it misses me....and PSUHaz.....and 2001kx...and maybe Jamie....lol. You are so annoying. lol. Just for that. i hope just south of you by 20 miles gets 6" you nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Oh god... lol. Day man, Fighter of the nightman, Champion of the sun, you're a master of karate and friendship for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You are so annoying. lol. Just for that. i hope just south of you by 20 miles gets 6" you nothing. You really want to hear us b***h more? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You are so annoying. lol. Just for that. i hope just south of you by 20 miles gets 6" you nothing. You don't even have to hope!!!! :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hahahaha, gotta love Always Sunny. Have you seen some of the newer episodes? There was one called "Storm of the Century". A hurricane was going to directly hit Philly and the gang went to their usual debauchery trying to prepare for the storm (and get the hot news reporter to ride out the storm at the bar with them). Then at the end of the episode the forecast ended up being wrong and they were only supposed to get drizzle instead. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZXx-CB9iR4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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