norcarolinian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 RAH will issue WWA for Triad...waiting to see exact counties...WSW possible later http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It will be interesting to see how fast the changeover occurs in the northern piedmont, but I am glad raleigh is finally getting on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 GSP will be adding counties to the WSW and WWA's will be hoisted as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 If anyone cares the 06z NAM comes in drier and more of it seems to fall as rain in the Triangle/Triad than 0z. Temps seem to drop at about the same time as compared to the 0z so I'm assuming the precip moves through earlier but I'm too tired to look at any longer. 6z NAM actually looks better IMBY. Yes QPF is down but it's colder and according to SV maps puts me in close to two inches. Wherever this deform band pivots through someone is going to get rocked, could be HKY to Winston. I wouldn't mind it dropping by about 50 miles lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 NWS RAH is forecasting 1-3" tomorrow night for the Triad, so I don't know why they are waiting so long to issue the WWA. I believe WWA criteria around here is only an inch or two. EDIT: Doh! I should read the thread. I hope they have the WWA/WSWs up by sunrise, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 border counties only you are looking at Blacksburg....RAH has not 'announced' ... yet... for Triad metro...Wilkes, Surry & VA border counties are under WSW... Yadkin, Stokes, Rockingham & Caswell are under WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Actually, the WWA is now out. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 415 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2012 ...WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT... AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AREAS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY SNOW THIS EVENING... WHICH WILL END GRADUALLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-192200- /O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0001.120219T2000Z-120220T1400Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON... WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO... HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG... NASHVILLE...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH 415 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND FAR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA... APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. * HAZARD TYPES...RAIN WILL TRANSITION THIS AFTERNOON TO A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW... POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET... BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY WET SNOW BY MID TO LATE EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED... WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES... ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 158. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM... AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 1 AM AND 5 AM TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW AND SLUSH BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. TRAVEL WILL REMAIN TREACHEROUS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. EVEN AFTER THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED LATE TONIGHT... REMAINING WET SPOTS ON ROADS MAY FREEZE INTO BLACK ICE... CREATING DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING. * WINDS...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL FALL THROUGH THE 30S TODAY INTO TONIGHT... AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT. * VISIBILITIES...VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO A MILE OR LESS IN AREAS OF SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER WEATHER WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ HARTFIELD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 P-TYPES AND ACCUMULATIONS: IT APPEARS THAT THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW A LARGELY MILLER TYPE-A CYCLONE EVOLUTION... AND THUS EXPECT A TRANSITION ZONE FROM RAIN SE TO MOSTLY SNOW NW... WITH AN ORGANIZED NARROW TRANSITION ZONE AND RELATIVELY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MIXED/FREEZING P-TYPES. THE LOWEST 10K FT WILL STEADILY COOL NNW TO SSE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH... CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY THE 850-700 MB COLD FRONTS... ALL WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE INCREASING OVER NC. THE INITIAL DOMINANT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AS THE COLUMN COOLS. THE 850 MB LOW TRACKS ITS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SCENTRAL AND SE NC 18Z-00Z... AND WHILE WE`RE LACKING A SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE PUNCHING UP INTO CENTRAL NC THAT WOULD INDICATE A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN... FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE (TO AROUND +2C) SUCH THAT WE MAY SEE SOME SLEET MIX IN BRIEFLY IN THE NRN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT ARE ALL BELOW FREEZING AND SATURATED WELL UP INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE ABOVE -12C (DUE TO THE STRONG LIFT)... EXPECT THE P-TYPE TO BE MOSTLY SNOW BY EARLY EVENING ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64... WITH A NARROW RAIN/SNOW MIX ZONE JUST SSE OF HERE AND MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. ONE POINT OF CONCERN HERE IS THE WARM GROUND TEMPS... STILL HOLDING IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50... WHICH WILL GREATLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS VIA HEATING FROM BELOW DESPITE THE HIGH PRECIP TOTALS ANTICIPATED. PRECIP RATES WILL BE DRIVEN BY BURSTS OF STRONGER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION... AND ANY SUCH BRIEF LOCALLY HIGHER RATES COULD LEAD TO DECENT ACCUMULATIONS DESPITE THE WARM GROUND. THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SNOW BANDING IS QUITE GOOD AS WELL... TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES UP THE COASTAL CAROLINAS (INTENSIFYING NEAR THE SRN OUTER BANKS) LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH STRONG SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS EVIDENT IN CROSS-SECTIONS OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME... FACTORING IN THE QPF... WARM GROUND TEMPS... POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP RATES... ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE... EXTENDED PERIOD OF VIGOROUS DYNAMIC LIFT... AND THE DEGREE OF INCOMING COLD AIR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER... BELIEVE WE COULD SEE AT LEAST 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64... WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. HOWEVER... THE ABOVE-MENTIONED FACTORS INHERENTLY POSSESS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT... TAKEN TOGETHER... DOES NOT NECESSARILY MAKE THIS A HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IF ORGANIZED SNOW BANDING DOES COME TO FRUITION... TOTALS COULD EASILY EXCEED 3 INCHES. WILL POST THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME... AND LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS THROUGH TODAY... IN CASE AN UPGRADE IS NEEDED. Good luck to you guys up there. I am considering an inch on the ground a huge win for me...especially to those who claimed NO ONE outside of the mountains would see ANY accumulations from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCTechster Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It will be interesting if and when the advisory is upgraded to a warning. Shouldnt someone be worried about the warm nose and a narrow region of ice, or does the ground being so warm negate the threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It will be interesting if and when the advisory is upgraded to a warning. Shouldnt someone be worried about the warm nose and a narrow region of ice, or does the ground being so warm negate the threat? I've made my feelings on the warm ground clear. As one example in March of 2009 temps were in the 60's leading up to the storm. I heard people say this same thing, well after 10 minutes of heavy snow with fat flakes that warm ground stuff went out the window. It's something to keep in mind but if you get fast enough rates for any consistent period of time it won't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I've made my feelings on the warm ground clear. As one example in March of 2009 temps were in the 60's leading up to the storm. I heard people say this same thing, well after 10 minutes of heavy snow with fat flakes that warm ground stuff went out the window. It's something to keep in mind but if you get fast enough rates for any consistent period of time it won't matter. Yeah you pretty much said it there. The "warm ground" discussion is oft overused in met. The amount of energy it takes to melt snow is rather significant, and any surface energy in the ground is quickly overwhelmed in melting the early snow during an heavy snow event. It really doesn't take long to accumulate with heavy snow regardless of previous surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 it's 100% true though. He made a pretty good reasoning why also. We all know that but look back last 24 hours, he keeps posting it over and over we get it. I know that from being a contractor the last 21 years. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that. But I also know if it falls heavy enough it will accumulate faster than you think. Go back to Feb 26-27, 2004 and March1, 2009. As we were plowing on both storms the snow was melting fast. When we were plowing we had waves of water from the melting up underneath. However it came so fast and heavy it did accumulate. I don't think anybody disagrees with him but after hearing for last 24 hrs we get it. Just seeing wintry weather is great, doesn't matter what accumulates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Everyone just needs to stop worrying about what could go wrong and what is bad about this event. I guarentee you most of you didnt even think it would snow down there this winter. Take what you get and enjoy it! Dont sweat the details. If you get 6 hours of heavy snow, awesome. If you get one hour of snow, awesome. Its better than 0 snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'm not 100% sure the reason we have seen a shift of over a 100 miles south in a short time is that models are picking up on convective feedback from exiting storm. Which as soon as all moisture exits coast from first wave then will shift north and possibly stronger storm and a possibility moving entir storm a little farther north. Something to look for in the next 6 to 12 hrs. Looking at radar you could see where this is possibly happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Another thing as well I think the piece if energy that we thought would catch up and bring more precip is doing just that! Stronger storm on the way. Look at radar trends now and you will start to see moisture develop around gulf coast as the day goes on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Another thing as well I think the piece if energy that we thought would catch up and bring more precip is doing just that! Stronger storm on the way. Look at radar trends now and you will start to see moisture develop around gulf coast as the day goes on I was noticing that also. I think precip start to really fill back in across the gulf as this morning goes on. Another interesting note to this storm. Forget the models look outside and see what it is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I thought we'd be colder by 7am. 46f. ugh! tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I thought we'd be colder by 7am. 46f. ugh! tw That is most likely the high for the day as cold air filters in from the north. Check it again at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Here is my final call... I've extended the 1-3" line further south into areas like Raleigh, and I've enlarged the 6-10 inch zone into upslope areas immediately to the east of Boone, NC. Should be a fun storm to watch! The high resolution model guidence opens the change that these amounts could be conservative in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of NC, but I'd rather play in on the safe side considering the BL issues. However, if this storm bombs out like the NMM suggests, then it could be a much different outcome for folks Raleigh east beyond 00z tomorrow. GSP still unimpressed for AVL. WWA for 1-2, but the forecast and forecast map are for a 1/2 inch or less. I like your forecast better. I appreciate your thoughts no matter who is correct. Thanks for those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Everyone just needs to stop worrying about what could go wrong and what is bad about this event. I guarentee you most of you didnt even think it would snow down there this winter. Take what you get and enjoy it! Dont sweat the details. If you get 6 hours of heavy snow, awesome. If you get one hour of snow, awesome. Its better than 0 snow. I agree w/ this 100%...All I was wanting out of this storm was to see some flakes flying. Right now it looks like I could get my wish. I'm happy w/ that in this pathetic thing we've called winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Big thing to look at is the dewpoints crashing. once precip falls in combination with the cold advection underway temperatures will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 dang, I wake up on the most important day of this winter and my thermometer is not working. 1-3 is the official forecast and I can live with that. Hoping for the best today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I am ready to cliff dive NWS cut me back from 1-2" to around 1" jk I am sure tweaks to the grids will be ongoing and they are accounting for some sleet now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 GSP morning update: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING LOW TO MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW ABV DAMMING SFC LYR...PCPN ACRS THE WESTERN CWFA HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE. NORTHERN MTN RIDGETOP TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO NEAR FREEZING AND A STEADY LOWERING AND SWWD SPREADING OF SNOW LVLS IS ON TAP TODAY. WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND REDEVELOPING OF WIDESPREAD PCPN...TODAY/S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE OCCURRING THIS MORNING. AS CRITICAL VALUES OF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY...FCST SNDGS LINGER JUST ENUF WARM AIR ABOVE THE SFC THAT A TRANSITORY PERIOD OF FZRA AND/OR SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NC MTNS/FTHLS BEFORE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY COOLS TO A DEEP ENUF LAYER TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. THRU ABT MID-AFTERNOON...SNOW LVLS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MOST OF THE VALLEY FLOORS...BUT WOULD EXPECT ACCUMS TO BEGIN IN EARNEST ACRS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MTNS. BASED ON THIS...HAVE EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING SWWD TO ENCOMPASS ALL HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THE BALSAMS AND SMOKIES. FCST SNDGS ARE NOW EXHIBITING ENUF COOLING TO GIVE RISE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION ACRS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRENCH BROAD AND PIGEON RIVER VALLEYS. ENUF DYNAMIC COOLING IS ALSO PROGGED TO SPREAD OUT INTO THE NC FTHLS AND PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A AN INCH OR TWO OF WET ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY EASTWARD ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE TRIAD. FROM THE NC NORTHERN MTNS INTO THE NC PIEDMONT NORTH OF KHKY...THERE IS PROBABILITY OF BURSTS OF HEAVY BANDED SNOW LATER TODAY...AND HOW FAR SOUTH THIS THREAT EXISTS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. SREF PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE NEAR 50 PERCENT IN LOCALES FROM LENOIR TO TAYLORSVILLE...AND HAVE DECIDED TO FALL OFF THE SIDE OF THE FENCE WHICH FAVORS WARNING SNOW FOR THIS AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING DEFORMATION ZONE ROTATING OFF EAST OF THE CWFA LATER TONIGHT...AND WITH THE INFLUX OF DEEP LAYER DRYING...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BEFORE MORNING AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE CWFA WILL FALL TO BELOW FREEZING. It's go time! Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Since it is slow this morning I'll ask....... does anyone have a link to where I can find current dewpoints? I want to track those if possible. I thought Dacula had one of his maps with dewpoint overlays but I cannot seem to find it. Ok, back to storm mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 GSP morning update: SREF PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE NEAR 50 PERCENT IN LOCALES FROM LENOIR TO TAYLORSVILLE...AND HAVE DECIDED TO FALL OFF THE SIDE OF THE FENCE WHICH FAVORS WARNING SNOW FOR THIS AREA. I can deal with that Still sitting at 44 degrees here, gotta get colder! Since it is slow this morning I'll ask....... does anyone have a link to where I can find current dewpoints? I want to track those if possible. I thought Dacula had one of his maps with dewpoint overlays but I cannot seem to find it. Ok, back to storm mode Your best bet is http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ You can choose to turn off the personal weather stations but those update much quicker than the official ones. I think this is the best to check this since it allows you to move around to whatever location you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 How well does the SREF perform? It looked to me to have more interaction between the two systems, maybe phasing right over the Carolina's....it certainly looks to have a heavier precip shield across the northern half of NC...thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I've seen it happen in SC. Hell 2010 was supposed to start as "rain" and it was snow and never stopped. It accumulated so fast that people started thinking it was Armegeddon down here. yep we had 3 inches here. Got a phone call and wen and plowed all of the Home Depot stores and several other stores in Greenville, Spartanburgh, Greer and Columbia last year. Around 8-10 inches there. Pretty much shut area down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Looks like we are still in the Rain/Snow forecast per GSP. There are watches and sws's all around us. argh!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 How well does the SREF perform? It looked to me to have more interaction between the two systems, maybe phasing right over the Carolina's....it certainly looks to have a heavier precip shield across the northern half of NC...thoughts? did well during 2010 Christmas storm, I believe it was the first to bring storm back up afer all lost it on 23rd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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