ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah i think way to many people are on that train.. it amazes me what models are still doing this close in Let's see how many GFS humpers we have..so far i see 3 or 4 who buy it...Ryan should be on humping it soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 nowcasting time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 still offers up around .5" or so out here but it's got a ridiculously tight gradient. Either way this will probably have a tight gradient regardless of track... somewhere is going to go from like 6" to 1-2" in a matter of like 20 miles. All coastal storms seem to be like that. Maybe widespread dusting-2" but then sharp gradient to Advisory or low end Warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 in this winter, I'll bet that the GFS is right on the money...any other winter, no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 i haven't seen many or ryan's post today what is his latest thinking.......he's unfortunately not talking bout many red flags for further NW precip today i would bet. hopefully scott can suprise to the upside and not be low man on the totem pole any more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 As the weenies turn. This is what the radar should look like near Tolland tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS a good tick east of 12z. Yep, really have to watch the southern stream. It's really ramping up on the vapor, and every single RUC run since this morning is stronger with it. GFS is developing the surface low out under the convection that forms in response to the s/w moving across that's under LA. It's barely notable on the GFS run, and overall the timing on the GFS should have been better but it develops the low way offshore with that associated convection. Might be a blip like last night's 0z. However it should be noted that the RGEM just went way east too. That s/w is impressive, I'd have thought it would have been able to round the corner more, but as it turns out these two models are sadly cutting it extremely close now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Does a Chinese brunch give him gas or something? mike how deep into that case of diet are you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is what the radar should look like near Tolland tomorrow morning LOL. Should be a nice day there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here's the RGEM. Like the 18z GFS it fires off the low under the frontrunning pulse/convection. Hopefully an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 nowcasting time So what to do you think...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18z rgem did the moonwalk for sne basically a non event outside extreme se mass and the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The high is over eastern Nebraska; the low "should" be on the Del Marva. Such is life in the great year of the nothing fits physics or correlation madness - With a high over Nebraska, if you put the low on the Del Marva it would probably cut to Montreal, haha. In the grand scheme of things this minor event is a lot better than a rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is what the radar should look like near Tolland tomorrow morning LOL I posted that date yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tylertheweather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here is my thinking for the storm in terms of maps: For more of a technical thinking: https://sites.google.com/site/tylertheweatherman/home/forecast-discussions/complexwinterstormsaturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here's the RGEM. Like the 18z GFS it fires off the low under the frontrunning pulse/convection. Hopefully an error. Yikes. Good thing the RGEM has seemed pretty useless this year, right up there with the NAM. As much as Kevin sh*ts on the GFS, that 18z run is a bit more concerning. Could definitely be a convection hiccup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Let's see how many GFS humpers we have..so far i see 3 or 4 who buy it...Ryan should be on humping it soon I'd bang it but i am busy doing the ruc right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18z rgem did the moonwalk for sne basically a non event outside extreme se mass and the cape. We're cooked. The fact that ALL the models are all shifting east as we approach the event says something...doubt we'll in for more than a coating on the grass at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here is my thinking for the storm in terms of maps: For more of a technical thinking: https://sites.google...erstormsaturday Nice writeup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 With the Euro humping west,,the NAM pumping west and the sref's ripping west.and the GGEM two stepping west.I think it's safe to say which set of models is correct and which isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Here is my thinking for the storm in terms of maps: For more of a technical thinking: https://sites.google...erstormsaturday nice thanks for sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 when has or does the suny mm5 update next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I said 3-6" for CT last night, waiting a bit longer before I officially butcher that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is a storm that should be right up Messenger's alley. he does his best analysis on storms like this..and judging by his posts he thinks it's coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Final Call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 sweet graphics for that map. forecast looks reasonable too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18z rgem did the moonwalk for sne basically a non event outside extreme se mass and the cape. For the record, the 18z GFS appears to have been attrocious with the 5-6 hour QPF around LA. Places like Baton Rouge got over .3...GFS was under a tenth etc. RGEM wasn't that bad though..was actually decent it would appear maybe someone underdone. Be interested if someone else could verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 sweet graphics for that map. forecast looks reasonable too Thanks man. Paint.NET FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 For the record, the 18z GFS appears to have been attrocious with the 5-6 hour QPF around LA. Places like Baton Rouge got over .3...GFS was under a tenth etc. RGEM wasn't that bad though..was actually decent it would appear maybe someone underdone. Be interested if someone else could verify. WxChallenge was interesting too for New Orleans today. I was 2nd highest out of WCSU in precip at 0.25 and I was still too low, the consensus was closer to 0.15 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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