Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

First half of February...another pattern shift?


ORH_wxman

Recommended Posts

I posted this in the DC thread. ALso, the MJO progression as modeled looks great.

Wes, I thought at first the pattern was very nrn stream dominant. You had a ridge that basically extends from the desert sw into the NW Territories at the beginning of the period. The trough axis is pretty far east, actually over New England, hence why it may be more conducive to clippers or redevelopers. The NAO is still positive imo, and the Caspian ridge tries to nose in from the northeast, into Greenland.

By hr 300 the trough axis retrogrades west and is over the latitude of the eastern Great Lakes region..maybe near 80W, we'll say. We see some ridging into northeast Greenland..possible part of the Caspian ridge, but I wouldn't really classify this as a -NAO. Out west, the ridge still holds strong, but now we see heights lower just a bit across California. Seems like it tries to get split flow going near the Baja of California. Still very nrn stream dominant with the flow coming out of the Canadian Plains, but at least the trough axis retrogrades just a bit and with heights trying to lower,....you can always get disturbances trying to move across the south.

By hr 360, the trough axis backs up a bit more, and the ridging into northeast Greenland is a bit more pronounced, but again..I struggle to call it a classic -NAO. The ridging out west flattens out, but it does look like we have split flow over the southwest with subtle troughing. The ridging still holds pretty strong across NW Canada, despite how far out it is on the ensembles means. SO potentially, you could have enough meridional flow providing cold and possible nrn stream s/w's and then hope something comes along from whatever happens across the southwest.

Of course, this is what the 11-15 day shows, so take it FWIW. I know you guys need a more classic -NAO and the nrn stream can screw you guys, but perhaps if the flow is as meridional as models show..you can get something to cook up. I still feel like I have the "believe it when I see it" but it's nice to see guidance and tropical forcing trying to hint at this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Scott...thanks. I understand its mostly in the day 11 to 15 time frame but has the timing improved at all? It seems like these great runs starting showing up 3-4 days ago so I was just wondering if the timing moved up at all? Or if it was 10 days away Monday and is still 10 days away today?

I think timing of this seems to be going as planned. Maybe a day or two difference, but it seems to be moving along as planned.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lol, GFS is Miller B central in the long range...just a parade of them.,

The GFS next week is a parade of nickel and dime snows... wow this could be a fun week. That Thurs event has been trending colder too.

BTV calling for 1-3" tonight...

Then another 1-2" Saturday night...

gfs_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Then another 1-3" Sunday night into Monday morning...

gfs_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Then again on Monday night into Tuesday morning...

gfs_namer_090_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Then this storm on Wednesday has been trending colder on both the GFS and GGEM (don't know or have seen the ECM)...

gfs_namer_120_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

And this is all before we even get near the Feb 2-3 event whatever that may be...

18z GFS is full on weenie daily snows, lol. No less than 4 seperate small events in a 5 day period. Sign me up with orographic enhancement of those weak clippers... nickel and dime.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS next week is a parade of nickel and dime snows... wow this could be a fun week. That Thurs event has been trending colder too.

BTV calling for 1-3" tonight...

Then another 1-2" Saturday night...

gfs_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Then another 1-3" Sunday night into Monday morning...

gfs_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Then again on Monday night into Tuesday morning...

gfs_namer_090_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Then this storm on Wednesday has been trending colder on both the GFS and GGEM (don't know or have seen the ECM)...

gfs_namer_120_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

And this is all before we even get near the Feb 2-3 event whatever that may be...

18z GFS is full on weenie daily snows, lol. No less than 4 seperate small events in a 5 day period. Sign me up with orographic enhancement of those weak clippers... nickel and dime.

ur 35 degrees and rain on 1/27....at Stowe, VT!

anything in the future has to beat that

try all you want, this winter has sucked relatively speaking

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ur 35 degrees and rain on 1/27....at Stowe, VT!

anything in the future has to beat that

try all you want, this winter has sucked relatively speaking

Haha what? Did I miss something in my own post that said it wasn't raining right now or this winter has been awesome? This winter has sucked and you are correct that it is raining right now as the cold front is passing through (tonight's potential light snow comes after the cold front). We have had half the snowfall we did last season so far and are at like 60% of normal. I'm excited like everyone else on here for the potential for upcoming snows.

What part of that post made you think I believe this winter hasn't been sucking? lol. This thread is about the future leading into February. But yes, thanks for the current observations. Feel free to post those in the NNE obs thread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice to see the gfs and nam printing out a litte measurable across the area sat/sun night combo.....for some reason I have a gut feeling many people wake up to a whitened ground on Monday morning, its a pretty decent piece of energy, maybe a little atl moisture thrown back in as it tries to redevelop out east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55....what is it about the 5 winters for you and I....1991-92, 2001-01, so far 2011-12. Time to break the curse!

Let's hope we're thigh deep on your 55th!

Yea right, should have used that analogy. I looked thoroughly at the Euro long range ENS and weeklies today. Is it possible we salvage this winter? Folks posted that the weeklies on average week 3/4 look warm. There are days that are warm way out but there are also times when we are pretty damn cold and stormy. We know it's not a snowpack winter but if things pan out salvage is not out of the question.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...