CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I wouldn't get too worked up with such model disparity. If we do compromise, it could work out well..even the euro pattern by itself was ok for New England. But the whole thing looked questionable and far from a great pattern...and had the potential to be worse. I just don't like seeing the AK low at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 At least through 84 hours, the NAM is nowhere near phasing with that energy down in TX and AZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 GFS still flat and OTS with Thursday. There is a front that does come through with a little mix or rain, but very light. GFS has a low off HSE on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I also don't understand why we have a nice discussion about the pattern going forward, and it seems to go right by people...but then someone like DT makes a post about winter, and all of the sudden..that is gospel..lol. It's like they totally missed what we've talked about. DT did a fabulous job of making a name for himself through having euro access. its remarkable really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 He has been around a long time now. I thinking he first started to get a lot of notoriety on WWBB around 1999. I know I was chatting with him in the early part of 2K during the presidential race on politics chat. DT did a fabulous job of making a name for himself through having euro access. its remarkable really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 GFS offers a shot next weekend too. Euro had the same system, but only gave a dusting of snow from the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I think the second system next Sunday could be the bigger threat. I hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 gfs has that nice cold signal tonight, hoping for some flakes then a nice glaze before the mini torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Chances within the week. That's good enough for me. Go sledding this afternoon, keep an eye on the Pats, get through the cold rain and then hopefully we'll have a clear idea of what's in store next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The flow across the nrn tier is pretty fast..I could see the GFS winning here, but of course it's really early to say. If the flow is too fast, then we aren't looking at much in the way for Thursday. If it buckles, then something like the euro could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 GEFS are a little more interesting for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 GEFS are a little more interesting for Saturday. indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The one thing that sticks with me is the need for a frigid Canada delivering air even in a hostile pqttern that promotes snow coupled with the proverbial holding high. We lose that this week so I think the next 7 days average above normal. Models have frigid conds returning to Canada after the next 5-7 days which suggests moving forward to February enables us to have chances. And look at what the widespread snow cover allowed the temperatures to do last night. I can't tell you how nice it is to look out the window at a respectable snow cover. Driving through the shortcuts in metro west to get where I neded revealed some beautiful and classic New England winter scenes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The thing that I don't like, is that it seems like the -NAO is going by the wayside on guidance. That leaves us with all eyes on the Pacific. If that AK low realy gets entrenched, then the upcoming pattern in the 11-15 day and beyond may not be all that great. Hopefully the AK low retros enough to pump up a ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The thing that I don't like, is that it seems like the -NAO is going by the wayside on guidance. That leaves us with all eyes on the Pacific. If that AK low realy gets entrenched, then the upcoming pattern in the 11-15 day and beyond may not be all that great. Hopefully the AK low retros enough to pump up a ridge. If we don't have a -Nao we are f'd. No 2 ways about it . We need that or it s over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 That AK low is just a mainstay this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I urge people to go to the Utah climate site. I ran BOS temps, qpf, and snow for the period 12/1/59-3/31/60. A dead ratter winter end to almost end. And just when weenies gave up (I certainly had by mid February that year) we were hit with one of the great blizzards of the 20th century. The pain was well worth it. January 1969 sucked. February not so much...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I urge people to go to the Utah climate site. I ran BOS temps, qpf, and snow for the period 12/1/59-3/31/60. A dead ratter winter end to almost end. And just when weenies gave up (I certainly had by mid February that year) we were hit with one of the great blizzards of the 20th century. The pain was well worth it. January 1969 sucked. February not so much...lol. We're due from an e MA special KU of some sort.....the area has not been under the cross hairs for a relatively long time. Jan 2005 is probably the last one that jackpotted the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Went to a house party last night, after the party went for a walk at 2 am when we got home. Overperforming cold and loud crunching snow. Winter rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 We're due from an e MA special KU of some sort.....the area has not been under the cross hairs for a relatively long time. Jan 2005 is probably the last one that jackpotted the area. Yeah... been a while for them. Even for this area, other than the freak show in Oct, that was the last real doozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 If we don't have a -Nao we are f'd. No 2 ways about it . We need that or it s over Well we can get these little transient ridges that go over Baffin Bay..or even just weak ridging into Greenland..just enough to help somewhat with pushing the lows south. But overall, it's a fairly weak -NAO and you can make an arguement for a + one. There are some signs the low retrogrades, so lets hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 If we don't have a -Nao we are f'd. No 2 ways about it . We need that or it s over I'm not a mental health professional but I recognize this sign: pre meltdown syndrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 A real -NAO is just not going to happen this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I'm not a mental health professional but I recognize this sign: pre meltdown syndrome. He has already used up his quota this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Euro got rid of that crazy setup on Thursday and is concentrating more on Saturday. That may be our best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Euro got rid of that crazy setup on Thursday and is concentrating more on Saturday. That may be our best shot. Weekend rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 This could be quite the bomb on the Euro for next Sunday...the southern stream just wats forever this run and allows the next northern stream wave to catch it...it might be too far inland or coast hugging looking at it by 132...but hard to say. Details again do not really matter this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Actually scratch that last part...its cold enough for mostly or all snow for SNE this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yeah... been a while for them. Even for this area, other than the freak show in Oct, that was the last real doozy "Not counting the 1\200 year 2'er...been screwed here, too". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Euro got rid of that crazy setup on Thursday and is concentrating more on Saturday. That may be our best shot. Overperforming pattern, we should take things 3-5 days at a time as gospel the rest is subject to change at any run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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