CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Next week's storm looks liek rain, unfortunately. Well, the GFS are totally different and squash the storm..lol. What a battle. Also, the EC ensembles are by itself in the 11-15 day. The GEFS and Canadian are much better looking for SNE. Maybe we'll see some sort of a compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I think any northern stream wave projected to amplify and develop into some coastal storm needs to be viewed skeptically. Several times this winter that solution has failed to pan out. The waves have stayed open and weak. That being said I favor the 2/1 to 2/7 period for some EC winter storm. The movement in the tele indices is something that always feels good to me. I'm looking for a quasi phased low with some lagging second low being the primary snow maker for the mountains. That's the pattern this year and I'm sticking to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 nothin goin on in here this am...never a good sign in january. thats my teleconnection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Given we are 5 days out, hard to get too up or down over each run...we'll have to watch for an icing threat with that system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Given we are 5 days out, hard to get too up or down over each run...we'll have to watch for an icing threat with that system too. Models struggling with the s/w's, but pretty amazing differences this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Hopefully the euro is too phase happy later this week, but it's a realistic solution. GFS is also nrn stream dominant which isn't out to lunch either. Perhaps today will feature guidance moving one way or another. The EC ensembles didn't seem to have too much spread, but the GEFS didn't either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I could see tomorrow morning being pretty icy for a lot of places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Not sure what to make of the upcoming system (day 5/6). Thought it might have been the Euros bias of holding back that ULL in the DW but that doe not appear to be the case. Looking at the indices, the NAO is pretty neutral, the AO is png and the PNA is still negative. I still favor a warmer solution for SNE given them but would not rule out the potential for some icing concerns in the interior. I'd like to see a more favorable NAO to be excited for anything meaningful in SNE. C/NNE looke more favorable imo for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Next week's storm looks liek rain, unfortunately. I'm glad there may be something to track upon my return (I land late tomorrow night). At least there are several wintery scenarios--some better than others--that can playout as this sets up in the next week. Of course, unfortunatel outcomes are also possibilities in which case I'll leave town again. Looks like a chilly morning in SNE today--enjoy it. Meanwhile, will not even be able to watch football today becasue I'm going to be on a boat, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Not sure what to make of the upcoming system (day 5/6). Thought it might have been the Euros bias of holding back that ULL in the DW but that doe not appear to be the case. Looking at the indices, the NAO is pretty neutral, the AO is png and the PNA is still negative. I still favor a warmer solution for SNE given them but would not rule out the potential for some icing concerns in the interior. I'd like to see a more favorable NAO to be excited for anything meaningful in SNE. C/NNE looke more favorable imo for snow. Yeah pretty much everything is on the table, but I sort of feel more rain for us..especially you and I. But seeing how guidance is so split right now, who knows at this point. The icing deal I could see for the interior in the usual spots. I think something will trend one way or another in the next 2-3 model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 SO what do we have? It seems like we have a 2-4 inch type snow event Thurday night into Friday and then either snow or mix over the weekend? The first wave Thur nite is def riding out to our south so should ensure snow. The 2nd one looks like noone has a clue on what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 SO wha do we have? It seems like we have a 2-4 inch type snow event Thurday night into Friday and then either snow or mix over the weekend? The first wave Thur nite is def riding out to our south so should ensure snow. The 2nd one looks like noone has a clue on what happens Euro has Thu night as a rainstorm. It only has one system really...it has a weak clipper like system on Sunday that brings a dusting of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 SO wha do we have? It seems like we have a 2-4 inch type snow event Thurday night into Friday and then either snow or mix over the weekend? The first wave Thur nite is def riding out to our south so should ensure snow. The 2nd one looks like noone has a clue on what happens Euro is more milder with rain or interior ice. It doesn't have a follow up wave. The GFS is disorganized and OTS with the Thursday deal,and also did not have much for the weekend, but the ensembles hinted at something for later Saturday. It's complicated because of split flow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yeah pretty much everything is on the table, but I sort of feel more rain for us..especially you and I. But seeing how guidance is so split right now, who knows at this point. The icing deal I could see for the interior in the usual spots. I think something will trend one way or another in the next 2-3 model cycles. I see some timing differences in the northern stream between the Euro and GFS. The Euro looks to be holding back the northern stream by about 96h allowing the southern stream to amplify more. The GGEM is doing the same thing as the GFS in holding back that enegy. Just writing this gives me pause to the GFS/GGEM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Will--is that EC rain depcition region-wide? tia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Euro has Thu night as a rainstorm. It only has one system really...it has a weak clipper like system on Sunday that brings a dusting of snow. I must have looked at that wrong on Thursday nite then. That didn;t look like a warm rainstorm to me. WTF..Just when we start to think things look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Will--is that EC rain depcition region-wide? tia. Yes...maybe some icing right at the onset or something...but its pretty much all rain on that run until you get to NNE where a bit more ice would occur. Its not worth really getting to detail-happy over though since its 120-132 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yes...maybe some icing right at the onset or something...but its pretty much all rain on that run until you get to NNE where a bit more ice would occur. Its not worth really getting to detail-happy over though since its 120-132 hours out. Thanks--lots of time to trend. Perhaps to wintry--perhaps to warmer rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 SO what do we have? It seems like we have a 2-4 inch type snow event Thurday night into Friday and then either snow or mix over the weekend? The first wave Thur nite is def riding out to our south so should ensure snow. The 2nd one looks like noone has a clue on what happens I agree, nothing this years phases this system slides out south of longisland, inch or two, weekend looks boring. (right now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 amerigarbage for the win thursday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 amerigarbage for the win thursday evening. As Kevin would say. Disagree with extreme violence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I see some timing differences in the northern stream between the Euro and GFS. The Euro looks to be holding back the northern stream by about 96h allowing the southern stream to amplify more. The GGEM is doing the same thing as the GFS in holding back that enegy. Just writing this gives me pause to the GFS/GGEM solution. Yeah it could end up some sort of a compromise, or lean more in the direction of a certain camp, as what usually happens. Tough to say who would win at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I want to see what the 12z GFS is doing with that northern stream energy around 84h. If it comes in slower than 00z and 06z it will be moving towrds the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Got down to a modest -2F here last night and yet again we will warm to 40+ a day or two later. Winter 11/12 at it's best. With a forecast low in the teens tonight can't see how we don;t hold on to FZRA for a while tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Wow the Euro is ugly next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 what about the larger scale set up? i.e. we had an indication that last week would be a snow event because of high pressure north or maine, even though it took the models awhile to get around from a warm rainstorm to a colder snowier solution. any clues for later this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Wow the Euro is ugly next 10 days. Seasonal trend...(the Euro being ugly) some say we head right back the old pattern and sure looks like that is on the table unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Seasonal trend...(the Euro being ugly) some say we head right back the old pattern and sure looks like that is on the table unfortunately Who is saying this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 With the massive ridge in western Alaska having retrograded/dissipated and a big GOA low once again the dominant feature on the map, you'd have to think our recent pattern of verifying well below guidance and storms trending S is over for a while. Although the snowcover will help locally, the cupboards will be pretty bare in the source regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Not sure what to make of the upcoming system (day 5/6). Thought it might have been the Euros bias of holding back that ULL in the DW but that doe not appear to be the case. Looking at the indices, the NAO is pretty neutral, the AO is png and the PNA is still negative. I still favor a warmer solution for SNE given them but would not rule out the potential for some icing concerns in the interior. I'd like to see a more favorable NAO to be excited for anything meaningful in SNE. C/NNE looke more favorable imo for snow. Let's see if we've established a rut where these storms run like they have the past few years. IE once we get a track they seem to kind of stay within that general area. Maybe this 2nd storm gets forced out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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