burgertime Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Per the just released Euro weeklies, the 500 mb anomalies are near normal during weeks 3 and 4 in the SE. However, more importantly, week 3 (2/6-12) shows a nice -NAO and a slight -AO as well as a +PNA and a cold Europe and cold N Pacific/Aleutians/E Asia. Maybe we could get a southern track storm then if we're fortunate. Keeping hope alive but accepting whatever happens blah blah blah. Well that is good news. If only it can verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Hopefully, we'll get plenty of rain this winter before the scorching drought of a summer sets in. I'm already investing in desert landscaping because the drought has killed everything these past few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buncombe Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 http://www.daculawea...erification.php Do they score beyond 6 days? Any verification scores for the 8 to 14 days available? thank you for the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Huge Solar Eruption Sparks Strongest Radiation Storm in 7 Years http://www.space.com...tion-storm.html Ya, it was a class M8.7. That would make it the 11th strongest flare in this current solar cycle 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 next system to watch after this Fri/Sat storm will be what happens with the s/w or several of them dropping in behind the incoming cold airmass. That should arrive early next week , but it's too far out to get a handle on. It would have to arrive early enough while there is still cold air in place for the SE or Midatlantic, which is possible but the timing of things in the Pacific has been terrible, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop into the Southwest and cutoff, instead of what the ecmwf is depicting now. In the past, things like this have yielded some winter events in part of the South/Tenn Valley or Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Do they score beyond 6 days? Any verification scores for the 8 to 14 days available? thank you for the link. You can obtain a lot of model verification info here - http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Click on the Go button next to the 1st dropdown on the left (Height). Then at the top you will see links for NH (N Hemisphere) for Days 1, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10 for different height levels (1000, 700, 500, 250 hPa). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Anybody keeping an eye on the 0z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Nice upslope with clipper coming this weekend; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Anybody keeping an eye on the 0z GFS? Yeah hour 141 looks frigid for most of the southeast. :shiver: However zero moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Ya it looks cold for this weekend and snow for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Just can't seem to get things lined up right this winter season. We have been due one of these after being spoiled the last several winter seasons. At least we don't rely on snow to make a living like folks out west do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 0Z GFS gets us back to normal mid next week after this weekend clipper. Have to take everything past 7 days w/grain of salt. Then it cranks a huge Noreaster the following weekend and touches NC w/ -16/-18 850's in its wake, then proceeds to put the vortex thats been camped out in Alaska on the move. This will all be different tomorrow. But in my head I can't help but think as the seasons get ready to change, the pattern seems ripe this year espeacilly with how amped up it's been to spin up some big blockbuster storm or 2 Feb/early March. Probably more likely it won't affect SE as it is it will, however I'd think somewhere from Miss valley.upper SE,MA, definetly NE has a shot at this scenerio playing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Would have been a fantastic fantasy winter storm between 264-288 had the low not track the way it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Is it close enough to track? Considering it's beyond 10 days, not even close. Now if something like this appeared and it was only around a week's worth of time, then there would be some consideration of following it but even at that point it can just as easily poof, kind of like when we had those 3 consecutive runs of the GFS showing that snowstorm potential for last week before dropping it altogether. I'd personally like to see winter storms depicted when there's at least 5 days left in tracking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The storm from 264-288 may be the #1 fantasy storm of the entire winter for Tennessee. They've been so hard to come by this year, I'll savor this one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Is it close enough to track? We honestly havent had one single storm close enough to track. i think you'll know when it's time to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 It's probably going to change after this run, but i'm just going to enjoy the notion of possible snow for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 00Z Euro quite dull. Cool shot over the weekend, then gradually milder. Then another blah frontal passage at 9-10 days. Weak blocking keeps showing up in the Hudson Bay area, but this only seems to keep us on the overall cool side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Euro LR, meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Well.. Roger Smith chimed in today around 2am. At this point, his October forecast for the winter has been perfect. No reason to doubt him now. No changes in theoretical reasoning since last update, expecting a gradual change to colder pattern in the northeast U.S. during February eventually delivering one or perhaps two memorable snowstorms. The most likely "events" from my theory would be southern max (about 18th-19th), new moon (22nd-23rd) and a complex of events around the 25th to 27th. The events earlier in the month, while somewhat promising, may not find a strong enough pool of cold air in place for an epic snowstorm but there could be one or two events similar to the past weekend's local 4-6 inch snows. These events will be around the 3rd, 7th-8th and 10th-12th in two waves. Sorry for the backwards forecast but I wanted to get to the good stuff right away. I should add that in the expected pattern, one or more of the early Feb storm events mentioned could give a heavy snowfall in the Great Lakes region and freezing rain in the Ohio valley, flooding rains in TN and severe weather in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Would have been a fantastic fantasy winter storm between 264-288 had the low not track the way it did. Yea even that storm does a nice 7 - 10 split over our BY, would be another I-40 to I-95 special leaving us in the dust. Oh well hopefully the GFS is picking up on something and it trends...but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Well, I see the awesome winter continues into February. We can't even get a fantasy storm beyond 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Well, I see the awesome winter continues into February. We can't even get a fantasy storm beyond 10 days. Huh? It was a good fantasy storm for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Huh? It was a good fantasy storm for you. Really? All I saw is someone say it would have been a great fantasy storm, so I thought that meant it missed everyone around here. Maybe things will look up. It's only more than 10 days out, right? Oh, but we're not supposed to trust the models past 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Since the canadian is verifying better than the gfs in the latest period, seemed worthwhile to post these for our upper south folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Really? All I saw is someone say it would have been a great fantasy storm, so I thought that meant it missed everyone around here. Maybe things will look up. It's only more than 10 days out, right? Oh, but we're not supposed to trust the models past 5 days. Well verbatim it's a hour 300 miller B which is all rain for NC, except for the mountains. The good thing I see on the 6z OP GFS is the PV splits into 3 pieces, unfortunately doesn't happen to hour 384. Unfortunately, the GEFS doesn't back that up. I like Roger Smith's timetable, as I see no evidence of a good pattern for snow in the next 2+ weeks. Hopefully by end of February things will turn around. The good news about this, is if things don't turn around by mid-February we then can cancel winter. One thing I don't understand is why we have so much confluence over the lakes, it seems every storm is a miller b and anything that far north is going to be rain for us followed by a cold spell. Will a strong -NAO take care of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Since the canadian is verifying better than the gfs in the latest period, seemed worthwhile to post these for our upper south folks Kind of embarrased to admit I looked this morning, but the 6z dgex has that exact look to it with a moderate snow for western TN (3-4 inches mostly north of 1-40 into middle TN too), weakening as it heads east. (1-2 for east TN) Just don't tell anyone that I actually looked at the dgex please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Looks very Canadian(ish)............................eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Well verbatim it's a hour 300 miller B which is all rain for NC, except for the mountains. The good thing I see on the 6z OP GFS is the PV splits into 3 pieces, unfortunately doesn't happen to hour 384. Unfortunately, the GEFS doesn't back that up. I like Roger Smith's timetable, as I see no evidence of a good pattern for snow in the next 2+ weeks. Hopefully by end of February things will turn around. The good news about this, is if things don't turn around by mid-February we then can cancel winter. One thing I don't understand is why we have so much confluence over the lakes, it seems every storm is a miller b and anything that far north is going to be rain for us followed by a cold spell. Will a strong -NAO take care of that? Verbatim what I saw 00z it was snow at 300 for at least RDU. Even the SV snow maps which are always conservative paint a wide swath across eastern NC. That being said it is 300 hours so you're probably right about it being just rain if it actually comes to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Verbatim what I saw 00z it was snow at 300 for at least RDU. Even the SV snow maps which are always conservative paint a wide swath across eastern NC. That being said it is 300 hours so you're probably right about it being just rain if it actually comes to play. Ah, my bad, I was looking at the 6z. Your probably right about the 0z, didn't even look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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