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Next week ... Cold temps, but will it snow?

OKpowdah

By OKpowdah,
in New England

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

You are all idiots, what a great day! You all b**ch that you want it cold and when it is, what do you do, you b**ch about the long range how you want mid 40s with a ne wind instead of warmth and sun.....................and your not even out enjoying this cold day LOL LOL.

Skating walks we had a great time today, actually felt like winter for a change, jc get out and enjoy people. LOL

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

You are all idiots, what a great day! You all b**ch that you want it cold and when it is, what do you do, you b**ch about the long range how you want mid 40s with a ne wind instead of warmth and sun.....................and your not even out enjoying this cold day LOL LOL.

Skating walks we had a great time today, actually felt like winter for a change, jc get out and enjoy people. LOL

I agree with your general assesment, Joe...but there is no need to call others idiots because they don't share your perspective.

That rubs folks the wrong way and makes you appear like the small minded one.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I've said for about 10 days I expected the warmth after about 1/22....I don't see anything to tell me it's going to be anything but AOA after that date.

This doesn't look cold to me...maybe you see sneaky back door action.

The thing is...you can have well above average departures with CAD...just the other day, it was snowing and icing here all day and we had a +8 departure day because the low temperature was 30F, or about 15 degrees above average. If you have a day that is 33F/30F, that is a "torch" on the departure but not in terms of sensible wx necessarily.

That said, I do think we'll get at least one day where it rockets into the 50s..but it certainly may not end up as a parade of 4 or 5 straight 55F days like back in Jan 2008.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

The good news here is that the Euro has never given us false signals outside of 4 days this year, so this one is probably a lock.

Yea, it hasn't yet piqued my interest in the slightest, but I get why it's being discussed...it's a weather forum.

Personally, I couldn't care less....likely end up crap.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

I've said for about 10 days I expected the warmth after about 1/22....I don't see anything to tell me it's going to be anything but AOA after that date.

This doesn't look cold to me...maybe you see sneaky back door action.

814temp.new.gif

that map look like the average story of the season, at least for the eastern half of the nation and alaska...

i wonder if anyone can find a map of temp anomalies so far for the season

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Gonna be wedged in for a while next week it seems.

Yeah, despite the background appeal of retrograding the EPO ridge too far west, together with a -5billion SD PV causing heights to raise 4 trillion DM over the EC... the thicknesses are surprisingly cool. Gosh, the pattern is really not too far from being a good clipper pattern.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

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For VALDEZ, AK:

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME	RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
              VALUE   (LST)    VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
...................................................................
SNOWFALL
(INCHES)
YESTERDAY          0.0            11.8  2002   1.9    -1.9    0.0
MONTH TO DATE     98.5                        30.4    68.1    1.3
SINCE DEC 1	 250.7                       102.1   148.6   74.4
SINCE JUL 1	 322.1                       155.9   166.2   84.3
SNOW DEPTH (IN)     78                                         10

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

For VALDEZ, AK:

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME	RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
  VALUE	(LST)   VALUE	   VALUE              FROM	  YEAR
                                                        NORMAL
...................................................................
SNOWFALL
(INCHES)
YESTERDAY		 0.0		   11.8  2002	1.9	-1.9	0.0
MONTH TO DATE	98.5						30.4	68.1	1.3
SINCE DEC 1	 250.7					   102.1   148.6   74.4
SINCE JUL 1	 322.1					   155.9   166.2   84.3
SNOW DEPTH (IN)	78										 10

WTAV has a great website if anyone is interested, lots of videos. No where left to put it, days and days of HPcoming though.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

For VALDEZ, AK:

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME	RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
  VALUE	(LST)   VALUE	   VALUE			  FROM	  YEAR
													 NORMAL
...................................................................
SNOWFALL
(INCHES)
YESTERDAY		 0.0		   11.8  2002	1.9	-1.9	0.0
MONTH TO DATE	98.5						30.4	68.1	1.3
SINCE DEC 1	 250.7					   102.1   148.6   74.4
SINCE JUL 1	 322.1					   155.9   166.2   84.3
SNOW DEPTH (IN)	78										 10

Truly is remarkable - wow!

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

How much OTG? 10-12"?

Yeah on average that's it down here in the village. The top 6" is pure fluff so that'll likely evaporate if we get any warm up, but the bottom 6" is rock solid thawed then re-frozen stuff. That's not going anywhere easily. We should be able to build a little on this Tues/Wed. However, if we get some qpf into the snowpack we could get like 3-6" of snow and only gain a couple inches on the snowpack as the top fluff settles out.

I know for folks down south that are really hurting for snow it may look really nice, but its still a pretty bad winter overall so far up here. I was looking at the stats and we had over 60" more at the ski resort this time last year (cumulative is at 85", last year we were near 150" at this time which I think is more like average). Down here in town we are somewhere between 30-40" (probably near 40") on the season but a large majority of that has been orographic fluff nickel and dime stuff. You know 1.5" one day, 3" another day... mostly broom snow. Synoptic snows have been very hard to come by with the exception of Thanksgiving and near Christmas. Even this past even we only had 3" synoptic but then 8" upslope in the village.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah on average that's it down here in the village. The top 6" is pure fluff so that'll likely evaporate if we get any warm up, but the bottom 6" is rock solid thawed then re-frozen stuff. That's not going anywhere easily.

I know for folks down south that are really hurting for snow it may look really nice, but its still a pretty bad winter overall so far up here. I was looking at the stats and we had over 60" more at the ski resort this time last year (cumulative is at 85", last year we were near 150" at this time which I think is more like average). Down here in town we are somewhere between 30-40" on the season but a large majority of that has been orographic fluff nickel and dime stuff. You know 1.5" one day, 3" another day... mostly broom snow. Synoptic snows have been very hard to come by with the exception of Thanksgiving and near Christmas. Even this past even we only had 3" synoptic but then 8" upslope in the village.

Well at least you have the upslope. It's really bad here..but at least people can go on the ponds and things like that. Just makes you appreciate the good winters.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Well at least you have the upslope. It's really bad here..but at least people can go on the ponds and things like that. Just makes you appreciate the good winters.

Yeah it definitely does make you appreciate the good winters. The upslope is sort of like an insurance policy because you know that no matter what happens for a pattern we are at least going to get west to northwest winds advecting cold air in, and each cold shot and frontal passage brings at least some snowfall to this area. And we didn't even really start snowing until near Christmas when our average temps got low enough that even +8 departures were allowing it to snow. I think the only reason we have been getting the snow we've been getting is because climo is down at its lowest temperatures, so even in a warm pattern, its cold enough for precipitation to be snow. And although its been sort of dry around here lately, we can at least squeeze out any available moisture from orographic lift.

The local CoCoRAHS observer in Stowe (in the Lower Village) is showing 40.7" cumulative on the season. I've noticed I may run a touch more than him being closer to Mansfield by a little bit, but overall we are pretty close. I don't keep as good records at my home as I do up at the mountain, but at home the seasonal snowfall is probably 40-45" for a best estimate. J.Spin for example in a slightly more favorable upslope location is at 54" on the season. He has 11.0" on the ground and I would say 11-12" here, too (CoCoRAHS guy in lower Stowe village is showing 11.5" today).

We have a long way to go but given that I think we average around 130" down here (last year was 150" from CoCoRAHS observer in the Lower Village at 700ft), we are about 1/3rd of the way to average.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah it definitely does make you appreciate the good winters. The upslope is sort of like an insurance policy because you know that no matter what happens for a pattern we are at least going to get west to northwest winds advecting cold air in, and each cold shot and frontal passage brings at least some snowfall to this area. And we didn't even really start snowing until near Christmas when our average temps got low enough that even +8 departures were allowing it to snow. I think the only reason we have been getting the snow we've been getting is because climo is down at its lowest temperatures, so even in a warm pattern, its cold enough for precipitation to be snow. And although its been sort of dry around here lately, we can at least squeeze out any available moisture from orographic lift.

The local CoCoRAHS observer in Stowe (in the Lower Village) is showing 40.7" cumulative on the season. I've noticed I may run a touch more than him being closer to Mansfield by a little bit, but overall we are pretty close. I don't keep as good records at my home as I do up at the mountain, but at home the seasonal snowfall is probably 40-45" for a best estimate. J.Spin for example in a slightly more favorable upslope location is at 54" on the season. He has 11.0" on the ground and I would say 11-12" here, too (CoCoRAHS guy in lower Stowe village is showing 11.5" today).

We have a long way to go but given that I think we average around 130" down here (last year was 150" from CoCoRAHS observer in the Lower Village at 700ft), we are about 1/3rd of the way to average.

I had like 50" already last year...lol.

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