CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I hope the GFS comes closer to verify on Friday. It's a better depiction, as it tries to redevelop overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I hope the GFS comes closer to verify on Friday. It's a better depiction, as it tries to redevelop overhead. Coastal ME gets a nice event. Will be interesting to see if this develops further SW. How did the ensembles look at 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Coastal ME gets a nice event. Will be interesting to see if this develops further SW. How did the ensembles look at 18z? Nothing really eye opening. Don't forget a low developing overhead doesn't mean a CCB rotating in or anything...it just means precip might get enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The GFS sort of has a narrow band of snow moving in..even the Cape. It doesn't last long, but looks rather intense. Almost like a fropa I guess, but strong WAA out ahead of it..but it's such a cold system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 LOL GFS has TT's near 60 on Thursday night. Would be squally in nature possibly if it played out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 LOL GFS has TT's near 60 on Thursday night. Would be squally in nature possibly if it played out like that. We can sometimes see a nice burst of snow that is like half synoptic and half convective in these setups...we did it on 1/1/08 too...it may not turn out so well, but I think we have a shot at a band of pretty good snow if it does happen to work out. The WAA is pretty strong so the forcing is there. As long as the shortwave doesn't trend too far north, I think it might be a half decent burst of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 We can sometimes see a nice burst of snow that is like half synoptic and half convective in these setups...we did it on 1/1/08 too...it may not turn out so well, but I think we have a shot at a band of pretty good snow if it does happen to work out. The WAA is pretty strong so the forcing is there. As long as the shortwave doesn't trend too far north, I think it might be a half decent burst of snow. Kind of unusual to see such low thicknesses with south winds out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Kind of unusual to see such low thicknesses with south winds out ahead of it. I don;t expect it to happen, but it would be a pretty explosive system if this trended 100-150 miles south in the upper levels...as it is though, def could see a nice burst in the form of like a 100 mile wide band. Hopefully it pans out...but you always have to throw scooter caution flags out when the low tracks to the north...but again, there is precedence for a burst of snow in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Friday looks like it may be our only chance up here to stay mostly frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I don;t expect it to happen, but it would be a pretty explosive system if this trended 100-150 miles south in the upper levels...as it is though, def could see a nice burst in the form of like a 100 mile wide band. Hopefully it pans out...but you always have to throw scooter caution flags out when the low tracks to the north...but again, there is precedence for a burst of snow in these setups. Yeah I can see the bursty aspect of it, definitely. That was some strong lift as modeled on the GFS in a very cold atmosphere. Would be great snow growth if it did occur..even if only for an hour or two. Add to that, some good moisture return from the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 any truth to this? http://ramseyweather.phpbb3now.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 any truth to this? http://ramseyweather...c.php?f=2&t=168 No, especially since the weeklies do not go into March..lol. They try to show a -NAO in the beginning of February, but the pattern is still kind of mild for your area, thanks to the PAC. Mild here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 No, especially since the weeklies do not go into March..lol. They try to show a -NAO in the beginning of February, but the pattern is still kind of mild for your area, thanks to the PAC. Mild here too. how do the euro yearlies look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 how do the euro yearlies look? You're probably screwed until 2013-2014...next year looks like a 3rd year Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 You're probably screwed until 2013-2014...next year looks like a 3rd year Nina. Sorry bud...Jb is going with nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 You're probably screwed until 2013-2014...next year looks like a 3rd year Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Sorry bud...Jb is going with nino Better start buying the Nina futures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I just stepped outside to start my car and wow is it cold out there. Down here in the valley at 800ft we only a few degrees below zero. This morning when I started up my car (and it barely started on the second try) the thermometer gave me a -16F. Took 3 minutes for the screen to even show anything. Local ASOS MVL is at -17F right now. -17/-22 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Looks like several bouts of snow this week . I'm likin the EURO's depiction of the weekend system, at least more than the GFS. It'll be nice to tack on some more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 1-2 tonight then ice. 1-2 Thursday night Euro a little less bullish than other models 3-6 on Satuday..Euro has a decent little coastal and then keeps Sunday cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 That Saturday Night deal is something to watch. All models seem to hint at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 KSLK got down to -26 last night, looks like that was the cold spot in the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 That Saturday Night deal is something to watch. All models seem to hint at something. What about beyond that next week? What did the Ens do last nite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 What about beyond that next week? What did the Ens do last nite? They were warm. Maybe they'll be high pressure keeping some areas wedged in, but when I see 546 and 552 thicknesses that widespread...the overall atmosphere is torched. I think we'll have one..maybe two days 50s and near 60, then maybe we cool down later next week as a high builds in. Late in the 11-15 day it does cool off just a but, but it's still a bad pattern for sure. The AK low is killing us. Heights try to weakly rise over the Davis Straits, so we'll have to continue to watch that going forward. While most of the country torches, we may have lots of ne flow, low clouds and crap like that, later next week and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 They were warm. Maybe they'll be high pressure keeping some areas wedged in, but when I see 546 and 552 thicknesses that widespread...the overall atmosphere is torched. I think we'll have one..maybe two days 50s and near 60, then maybe we cool down later next week as a high builds in. Late in the 11-15 day it does cool off just a but, but it's still a bad pattern for sure. The AK low is killing us. Heights try to weakly rise over the Davis Straits, so we'll have to continue to watch that going forward. While most of the country torches, we may have lots of ne flow, low clouds and crap like that, later next week and beyond. So one of those deals where we snow Saturday/ Coolish Sunday and then torch by Tuesday? Sounds similiar to the Halloween storm regarding after the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 So one of those deals where we snow Saturday/ Coolish Sunday and then torch by Tuesday? Sounds similiar to the Halloween storm regarding after the storm The Saturday deal is still not very great looking on the EC ensembles..and GEFS too. They do have an overrunning look though, but they don't quite look like the ops runs right now. It is day 6 so something to watch, but nothing exciting yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I think it was Kev saying the CFS has nailed it this year. From Don's thread, the latest for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I think it was Kev saying the CFS has nailed it this year. From Don's thread, the latest for February. It's all about the NAO. If that is gone, we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 As soon as it stopped snowing in southern alaska we have the chance of some wintry weather, although noting earth shattering. I am thinking though that we prob will torch in feb and I think we are overdue for some real winter weather in March. Last good March snow event for most of sne was all the way back on 3/1/09. If I remember correctly there was not much in 2008 March either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 It's all about the NAO. If that is gone, we torch. Has Russia been that warm all winter too? Torch over there as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.