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Sunday - January 8, 2012 - What storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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I just remember about 4 or 5 days before x-mass when the models had a snow event for that Thursday night before x-mass eve, and what happened? …rain.

It’s not just that one… The repeating theme has been to bump these critters NW in time, all season, and that is not uncommon during eras with limited blocking by the way.

I’m cautious at best on this thing for the time being.

But yes, within its self this Euro run definitely has a blue snow thump vibe about it -

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I'm betting on rain for here, but I would be lying if I said I won't be on here tracking every model run that I'm not asleep or at school for lol. Sunday-Sunday night would be perfect timing for a storm too. Should be interesting to see what the the 12z ensembles do. It would be nice to see the 12z euro nail a solution 5 days out for once. I would certainly take a solution that was rain flipping over to heavy snow at this point...even if it only was 2-3".

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I just remember about 4 or 5 days before x-mass when the models had a snow event for that Thursday night before x-mass eve, and what happened? …rain.

It’s not just that one… The repeating theme has been to bump these critters NW in time, all season, and that is not uncommon during eras with limited blocking by the way.

I’m cautious at best on this thing for the time being.

But yes, within its self this Euro run definitely has a blue snow thump vibe about it -

No it doesn't. It has rain changing to snow

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Oh, ha ha - right. That's FIT, but it nicely shows the marignality of it. Lot of QPF though, wow - at 33F while it is -1C at 850 and a low sliding SE of the area is a smoking gun for isothermal snow whomp!

Thanks. Yeah- Verbatim that looks like maybe 8-12" of wet snow from early afternoon to midnight Sunday maybe northwest of ORH. The set-up on the euro would probably make Pete pretty happy. Too bad its 5 days out.

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Euro MOS:

SUN 18Z 08-JAN   0.5	-0.9	1009	  99	 100	0.25	 546	 539  
MON 00Z 09-JAN   1.1	-1.3	 999	  97	 100	0.62	 538	 539  
MON 06Z 09-JAN   0.0	-6.0	1002	  86	  95	0.48	 529	 527  
MON 12Z 09-JAN  -5.8	-7.8	1009	  83	  24	0.02	 531	 523  

I don't think that's MOS. I think it's just the op gridpoint interpolations.
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There must be a few weenie members in there because the ensembles are colder, but I would naturally expect them to be a little less amped up then the op.

Edit: the op run is basically the warmest, but I've seen that before. I wouldn't read into it yet, being this far out.

I have 0.25"+ QPF for all of SNE up to a line from CON to PWM.
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