mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 AHPCT SINCE THE FLOW IS SO AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM...A SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH EAST OF THE PLAINS MAKES SENSE...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z/27 ECMWF. THE 00Z ECMWF APPARENTLY GOES TOO FAR IN DEVELOPING A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WHICH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEXT TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO SLOW/STRONG WITH SYSTEMS BEYOND 120 HOURS...SO IT IS LIKELY A BIT OVERDONE. HOWEVER....THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FROM ECENS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS FOR A DEEP...YET LESS DRASTIC...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH MARCHING EWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION SUN-TUE. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WITH THIS AMPLIFYING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE LONG TERM GOOD SCORING OF THE ECENS MEAN...PERSUADED US TO LEAN HEAVILY ON THE ECENS MEAN AFTER DAY 5. HPC also is headlining possible snow even mid-south, mid-atlantic and northeast early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 You text me the same thing 48 hours before the our last rainer....24 hours later, you melted down to the tune of bl*** ****s. That ws certainly not a meltdown..I didn't lose it..just was getting some anger off my chest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 That ws certainly not a meltdown..I didn't lose it..just was getting some anger off my chest How about the 2 "Just fookn give it up" posts on the board.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 How about the 2 "Just fookn give it up" posts on the board.. hopefully he doesn't end up there again by monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I don't see why HPC is so bullish next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 What good news is that........6zgfs cuts every single storm west of us for the duration of the run, was the worst run in days. Same ole story. 6z gfs. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 6z gfs. lol I know right! And now the Nam joins the fugly camp, wow that is a disaster for sne, Scooter never liked it (nam). I really hope people are not getting there hopes up, the pattern is stable, the se ridge is stout and there is no blocking, wagons north trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think we are starting to get into the outer range of the pattern change that I'm starting to think happens. 1/20 ish should be very different vs first half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think we are starting to get into the outer range of the pattern change that I'm starting to think happens. 1/20 ish should be very different vs first half of the month. Well, it will be lighter longer I hope you are right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I know right! And now the Nam joins the fugly camp, wow that is a disaster for sne, Scooter never liked it (nam). I really hope people are not getting there hopes up, the pattern is stable, the se ridge is stout and there is no blocking, wagons north trend continues. You're right...I don't like the NAM as a model..lol. I'm not writing it off as some reliable guidance shows the chance of it. It's important to get emotions and past trends from dictating your opinion because that can bite you in the arse if you keep doing it. Sometimes you have to be a terminator and have no emotional attachment when making a call or forecast. That said, I know what the trend has been...but I wouldn't go overboard and call for a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well, it will be lighter longer I hope you are right... can already notice it actually. things look *a little* better after we pass the new year holiday. but still very weak, if any, blocking so we still aren't where we want to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 You're right...I don't like the NAM as a model..lol. I'm not writing it off as some reliable guidance shows the chance of it. It's important to get emotions and past trends from dictating your opinion because that can bite you in the arse if you keep doing it. Sometimes you have to be a terminator and have no emotional attachment when making a call or forecast. That said, I know what the trend has been...but I wouldn't go overboard and call for a cutter. I think he meant you did not like the looks of last night's NAM when you and Will almost came to blows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think we are starting to get into the outer range of the pattern change that I'm starting to think happens. 1/20 ish should be very different vs first half of the month. OT, I sent an e-mail on Saturday to SV about the problem with the 12z ECMWF and got back one from them apologizing for the issues and that it has been resolved, Just an FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 can already notice it actually. things look *a little* better after we pass the new year holiday. but still very weak, if any, blocking so we still aren't where we want to be. The vortex comes right back later in the 11-15 day on the euro ensembles, but the vortex is a little damaged and getting hit by the Caspian ridge so maybe that will help a bit. I see no real sign of the nao going negative anytime soon..and think it will avg positive right through the month. Hopefully we can get a transient ridge or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think he meant you did not like the looks of last night's NAM when you and Will almost came to blows... Oh I know...I was just adding some weenie humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think he meant you did not like the looks of last night's NAM when you and Will almost came to blows... Yep thanks Dave thats what I meant, Scooter was discussing the warm front and warm bl in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I know right! And now the Nam joins the fugly camp, wow that is a disaster for sne, Scooter never liked it (nam). I really hope people are not getting there hopes up, the pattern is stable, the se ridge is stout and there is no blocking, wagons north trend continues. Then why did you call for tonight's storm to trend south and give us snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The vortex comes right back later in the 11-15 day on the euro ensembles, but the vortex is a little damaged and getting hit by the Caspian ridge so maybe that will help a bit. I see no real sign of the nao going negative anytime soon..and think it will avg positive right through the month. Hopefully we can get a transient ridge or two. What do you make of the weeklies with a below normal week 2 and 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Then why did you call for tonight's storm to trend south and give us snow? that was a few days ago and I was wrong, I thought we could thread the needle and get some decent timing between the ss and ns energy, that was not the case and my thoughts were absolutely incorrect. I started to think with my weenie instead of my brain, all falll and early winter it was an easy guesscast for this amatuer, I wont get fooled again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The vortex comes right back later in the 11-15 day on the euro ensembles, but the vortex is a little damaged and getting hit by the Caspian ridge so maybe that will help a bit. I see no real sign of the nao going negative anytime soon..and think it will avg positive right through the month. Hopefully we can get a transient ridge or two. i think we could see a decent short-lived cold snap in there as some cold gets dislodged, but overall it's still not the way you'd draw it up to get repetitive / sustained cold and / or snow. it is...what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 One thing that blows (among the many) is how many events we have had...they are all just rainers. It is not like we have been in a dry pattern. A little bit of cold would have done wonders this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 OT, I sent an e-mail on Saturday to SV about the problem with the 12z ECMWF and got back one from them apologizing for the issues and that it has been resolved, Just an FYI I did the same and got an elaborate and personal e-mail explaining and apologizing. Good thing people wrote! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I did the same and got an elaborate and personal e-mail explaining and apologizing. Good thing people wrote! I sent it to you in a PM, Yes, Apparently they were not aware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 What do you make of the weeklies with a below normal week 2 and 3? I just lost a nice post and don't feel like repeating it..lol. Basically I think week 3 could trend warm given what I saw. It will come down to two things. The MJO and the AO. If the AO is strong, you have faster westerly winds and a ridge beat down.If it weakens and it might temporarily, then you have more amplitude. We also have a developing Caspian ridge too, which may help nudge the PV south and even split it. MJO may try to help out if you believe the GEFS, but the euro weakens it into the COD and goes back towards phase 4. I just don't see an overall pattern change especially if the euro is right and brings the vortex back to AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Clipper not all that appealing on the 12z GFS as it develops to far east in the atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS says snow showers Friday but not mich more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS says snow showers Friday but not mich more. Out to 96 on NCEP...maybe something developing in the Mid Atlantic ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS tries to look more like the euro for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS tries to look more like the euro for Saturday. Yeah...it really has the 00z EURO look to it with two impulses...first one weak, second one slightly stronger than weak. Trough axis at H5 is neutral by 96 too...if this can strengthen quicker, it should go negative and head more ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah...it really has the 00z EURO look to it with two impulses...first one weak, second one slightly stronger than weak. Verbatim it has barely any QPF, but at least it's a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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