wxmanmitch Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 <p> Yep you just might get ALB afds like this oldie from 2006 Main area of concern from late this afternoon through the overnight period is upslope flow and enhancement of snow shower activity on west facing slopes of Taconics...southern Green Mountains and Berkshires. 500 mb low passes over southern Berkshires late tonight accompanied by strong vorticity axis. Fairly strong frontogenetic forcing aligns itself across southern Green Mountains at 06z dropping into northern Berkshires by 12z. Expect any single crystals will change to aggregates with dendrites fairly quickly as snow growth region drops to 2-4 kft by late tonight. Snow to liquid ratios expected to increase to at least 15-20:1 with a 3-6 hour period of at least 0.5 to 1 inch per hour snow rates expected. In addition northwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 miles per hour with gusts to 30 miles per hour thus blowing and drifting snow will be a problem. Have thus issued a Winter Weather Advisory instead of a Snow Advisory for this reason. Expect total accumulations by early Friday morning of 3 to 8 inches in advisory area. Snow activity is expected to dissipate fairly quickly Friday with passage of upper trough. Lake effect will lift into western Mohawk Valley and perhaps southern portions of western Adirondacks by late Friday afternoon although instability by this time becoming conditional. I could see something like this happening, especially with the vort going right overhead. We first get the WINDEX squall line, which lasts 20-30 minutes, and then we get a few hours of upslope afterwards. The upslope is never as heavy as the WINDEX itself, but sometimes we can get a few hours of 1/2SM SN FZFG, or 3/4SM -SN BR under ideal conditions. Sometimes it shuts down quickly after the WINDEX though, especially if there's little moisture behind the front. Unlike the WINDEX which often consists of heavily rimed junk, at least in the beginning, the upslope is usually dendritic deliciousness as the snow growth region descends and the precip is no longer convective. We usually get at least a few of these events in any given winter, typically producing a 2-3" type deal here in the PSF area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 kind of wintry looking weekend out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 wonder if sun pm is more of a widespread snow showers deal with embedded heavier squalls. it's not a particularly narrow ribbon of low and mid-level RH and the qpf fields are pretty broad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 wonder if sun pm is more of a widespread snow showers deal with embedded heavier squalls. it's not a particularly narrow ribbon of low and mid-level RH and the qpf fields are pretty broad. I agree Phil, and especially along the south coast and northeast along the coastal plain looks like some decent sw winds aloft with a damn impressive front coming through.......perhaps a period of light rain going over to snow then a nice robust squall to close it out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 wonder if sun pm is more of a widespread snow showers deal with embedded heavier squalls. it's not a particularly narrow ribbon of low and mid-level RH and the qpf fields are pretty broad. ULL magic, some pretty cold temps aloft, good snow growth zone omega. One can hope it holds, at least it feel like winter for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 NAM is looking pretty good again...we'll have to hope it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 <p> Yep you just might get ALB afds like this oldie from 2006 Main area of concern from late this afternoon through the overnight period is upslope flow and enhancement of snow shower activity on west facing slopes of Taconics...southern Green Mountains and Berkshires. 500 mb low passes over southern Berkshires late tonight accompanied by strong vorticity axis. Fairly strong frontogenetic forcing aligns itself across southern Green Mountains at 06z dropping into northern Berkshires by 12z. Expect any single crystals will change to aggregates with dendrites fairly quickly as snow growth region drops to 2-4 kft by late tonight. Snow to liquid ratios expected to increase to at least 15-20:1 with a 3-6 hour period of at least 0.5 to 1 inch per hour snow rates expected. In addition northwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 miles per hour with gusts to 30 miles per hour thus blowing and drifting snow will be a problem. Have thus issued a Winter Weather Advisory instead of a Snow Advisory for this reason. Expect total accumulations by early Friday morning of 3 to 8 inches in advisory area. Snow activity is expected to dissipate fairly quickly Friday with passage of upper trough. Lake effect will lift into western Mohawk Valley and perhaps southern portions of western Adirondacks by late Friday afternoon although instability by this time becoming conditional. I'll never forget the night you flagged a WINDEX for me. I think I had just joined the board and you told me to watch for it. Sure enough we got an impressive thump, like 6". I've liked you ever since.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I'll never forget the night you flagged a WINDEX for me. I think I had just joined the board and you told me to watch for it. Sure enough we got an impressive thump, like 6". I've liked you ever since.lol I remember that very well, a mesolow spun up over Lake Onatario almost a polar low with convection. I even got a piece of that. You will like this one. Like Will said this meets all parameters, for once it would be nice if the models can nail things correctly more than 24 out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I remember that very well, a mesolow spun up over Lake Onatario almost a polar low with convection. I even got a piece of that. You will like this one. Like Will said this meets all parameters, for once it would be nice if the models can nail things correctly more than 24 out. When was that one? I still liked Jan of 2010 very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 any thoughts on the GFS for sunday night? still looks like a coating for most.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Well this potential shat the bed.. This winter is anyone surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 It doesn't look bad to me. But I won't be surprised if it doesn't pan out. But the windex parameters are still there. I'd like to see lapse rates a tad stronger, but otherwise there's a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Things look just fine for a quick coating sunday night, might be enhanced down on the south coast and coastal plain with sw winds and moisture ahead of the front. okx now has it in the forecast for sunday night, getting excited to see some flakes!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 last nights box discussion had up to an inch of snow likely sunday night lol and this morning back to slight chance lol...the discussions really do not match up with the zone forecasts these days anyway.. i almost wish it had not snowed in Oct this year so we could see how long we could go into the winter without measurable snow lol..bc of that stupid oct storm that really did nothing but ruin peoples lives in the valley for weeeks, we are still well above normal snowfall for the current snow season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 12znam looks just fine thank you, on and off snow showers later tomorrow possible strong squall towards the end, many places should see the ground whitened. Cant wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 12z NAM is actually pretty impressive. Total Totals are in the mid to upper 50s at 42-45 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 lol so the flurries are back on for some parts of sne....payback is a b#### for five weeks of real winter last season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 12z NAM is actually pretty impressive. Total Totals are in the mid to upper 50s at 42-45 hours. Yeah...H5-H7 lapse rates are also > 7.5C/km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 12z NAM is actually pretty impressive. Total Totals are in the mid to upper 50s at 42-45 hours. Nice. Hope to get a quick thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Yeah...H5-H7 lapse rates are also > 7.5C/km. If this was July we'd have about 30 posts from Wiz per minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 12znam looks just fine thank you, on and off snow showers later tomorrow possible strong squall towards the end, many places should see the ground whitened. Cant wait! Looks mild at the surface down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 If this was July we'd have about 30 posts from Wiz per minute. I could use a run down on every severe indice that exists right now. MAV/MET are both spitting out snow cats of 1 up here. Hopefully a few people here can get a lucky squall to put down 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Does not look bad on the nam up here, DE maine sees .25" qpf .01-.10" the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Looks mild at the surface down there. oh well than rain it is:( merry christmas scooter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 oh well than rain it is:( merry christmas scooter! LOL, I mean it may be something where it starts as a mix or something. If it even happens to pass by your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 09z SREFs 1"+ probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 some nice xmas eve mood flakes around this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 If this was July we'd have about 30 posts from Wiz per minute. Yea no kidding IJDTotal Totals Index: 56.28 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Yea no kidding IJDTotal Totals Index: 56.28 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable Merry Christmas Ginxxx!!!! Think there are any accumulations in my future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 09z SREFs 1"+ probabilities. I wonder why that is bring35-50% pops into the Lakes Region but seemingly screwing over Jeff? Is there some some of inverted trough from se to nw from the coast? Lower probs for you than me Eric? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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