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Joe bastardi cancels January in the east


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he has been having a catastrophic first winter with weatherbell. At this rate, he'll be losing subscribers like mad.

Hopefully his contract has a built in golden snow shovel.

I am sure JB has covered his expenses to date with weather bell.

I figure he pulls in around $500,000 a year maybe a little more.

atleast 25,000+ people I assume are on the paying blog at $20-$25 a month.

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I think alot of forecasts went cold this Dec for the same reason. We had strongly negative AO & NAO Decembers the last 2 years running and the overall regime for both indicies has been negative since about 2005 or so.

I don't think anybody saw the current very stubborn + AO/NAO coming. There were hints of it happening in Sept/Oct but I think we all thought it would break down before December. This late fall / early winter is one to remember in the future.

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All depends on timing of stratwarm. I believe it will turn colder mid to late January, would not rule out a good last third anyway, with luck could see a good last half. Still more convinced that February is "the" month for this winter on east coast. January could become dynamite for Midwest though.

Pattern change will probably come either 7-10 Jan or 20-23 Jan. These are high variability time windows in my analogue set. Went with the two-step shift in my LRF, but would not be amazed to see either of these being the main timing for regime change.

If pattern change comes early, look for big snowstorm 9-10 January. If later, more likely to be moderate snow events leading to big storms in February.

Holding onto the general theme of an eventual delivery of decent winter with February the more certain bet.

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He has been awful for around 10 years. He only does well if the pattern is already cold and snowy.

I don't even want to discuss his hurricane/tropical storm analysis

If it is anything like his Arctic Sea Ice predictions then he may be the worst all around met at his public level of popularity of all time, including any time past, present or future as long as the hominids are going on.

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I believe the mid Atlantic / east will pick its first snows up for the 2012 year at the end of January when the pattern changes a little. The real snow will come at the middle to the end of febuary when the NAO/AO go (negative-) like most La Ninas and most def goes (negative-) in back to back La Nina. Big snow will be 8-10" which is usually about the biggest average you get in La Nina"s anyways, despite some very rare blizzards 1996 would be one of them and I do not see that happening in our future. But you never know.

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Ps , I like Joe Bastardi not matter what anyone says. He has passion for what he does. It's ok

If your not right sometimes. I believe his theroy hardcore that were going back to the mid to late 1970s for winters and 3 out of the 5 next winter will be brutal. He was right about the last 2 winters besides this one , but winter has just started so who knows. People need to stop being haters on JB because he has worked his tail off in his life and has done wonderful things for people. I got to meet him recently and his passion for weather is a work of art, it's a beautiful thing. If JB you read this someday, I just want to say thanks for your insights and years of hard work and it's ok if we are wrong at times. Thanks

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Ps , I like Joe Bastardi not matter what anyone says. He has passion for what he does. It's ok

If your not right sometimes. I believe his theroy hardcore that were going back to the mid to late 1970s for winters and 3 out of the 5 next winter will be brutal. He was right about the last 2 winters besides this one , but winter has just started so who knows. People need to stop being haters on JB because he has worked his tail off in his life and has done wonderful things for people. I got to meet him recently and his passion for weather is a work of art, it's a beautiful thing. If JB you read this someday, I just want to say thanks for your insights and years of hard work and it's ok if we are wrong at times. Thanks

I cant wait for the JB xmas snow here as promised what time does that start? What happened to the vodka cold for last week, I dont remember it? What happened to bitter december and jan......dont remember that either, good call on Irene, that was a real doooooozey, and great call last winter on the end of winter in early jan.........all we did was get blizzard after blizzard and held a 2 foot+ snow pack on the ground well into March................Joe Bastardi sucks. Stop drinking the coolaid

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If it is anything like his Arctic Sea Ice predictions then he may be the worst all around met at his public level of popularity of all time, including any time past, present or future as long as the hominids are going on.

Overall, I believe he's a good forecaster. However, he does have his slumps and this winter is an example.

The issues I have are:

1. His past attacks on NWS/NOAA/NHC

2. His delving into climate when meteorology and climatology are different, even as there are some common areas. The disastrous Arctic sea ice prediction is one example. JB forecast a strong rebound this summer based on the idea of a colder than normal Arctic winter. The reality is that summer sea ice is a function of factors that include winter temperatures, summer temperatures, past temperature trends, and winds. The past temperature trends--warming--is manifested in the thickness of ice. More and more of the Arctic sea ice is thinner. Hence, once the temperatures warm, it melts away more easily.

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Overall, I believe he's a good forecaster. However, he does have his slumps and this winter is an example.

The past temperature trends--warming--is manifested in the thickness of ice. More and more of the Arctic sea ice is thinner. Hence, once the temperatures warm, it melts away more easily.

His arctic ice predictions don't make sense to me either given the thickness aspect, though it seems to me warming temperatures manifested in the arctic predominately as a result of Ice loss (flushing), since ice loss preceded warming temps in the UAH and RSS lower tropospheric records. So JB might have to be wearly of the weather patern;s influence on a thinner ice pack and it's compression/expansion.

As for the flushing UAH and RSS cooled from 1979 to 1994 in the means while ice flushed from the basin.

MSU%20RSS%20ArcticAndAntarctic%20MonthlyTempSince1979%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif

seaice.anomaly.arctic.png

Large quantities of old/thick ice began flushing out of the arctic around 1990 (especially in the 2000s) because the beaufort basin ocean current that holds/traps the ice in place fell apart as a result of alterations in thermodynamics through the +AMO, or for whatever other reason, I don't really know.

With nothing holding the ice in place it was continuously leaving the arctic basin during periods of storminess, which resulted in more shortwave radiation entering the oceans (less ice cover), further warming the arctic.

But given even today much of the arctic basin averages below freezing even into the warmest time of the year, it's still clearly cold enough to grow another healthy ice pack once the current returns to it's old state, evidenced by the increase in 2-3 year ice on NCIDC's dataset which depleted very low during the reat flush of 2007/08.

I don't think JB has ever mentioned ice thickness in his forecasts and assumes the loss in volume is a lie or something along those lines.

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Overall, I believe he's a good forecaster. However, he does have his slumps and this winter is an example.

The issues I have are:

1. His past attacks on NWS/NOAA/NHC

2. His delving into climate when meteorology and climatology are different, even as there are some common areas. The disastrous Arctic sea ice prediction is one example. JB forecast a strong rebound this summer based on the idea of a colder than normal Arctic winter. The reality is that summer sea ice is a function of factors that include winter temperatures, summer temperatures, past temperature trends, and winds. The past temperature trends--warming--is manifested in the thickness of ice. More and more of the Arctic sea ice is thinner. Hence, once the temperatures warm, it melts away more easily.

Number 2 is very minor in my opinion, especially since there have been folks yelling ice-less arctic by this summer. I also enjoy his side discussions on climate change

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My main issue with JB is that he seems to be ignoring the fact that eastern Canada has been very warm the past few winters, with only 2003, 2004 and 2009 having what I would call a cold winter. I greatly respect the fact that, given he is an American met, his main focusi s naturally going to be on US weather, even more specifically the mid atlantic and Ohio valley given that's where the majority of his subscribers are, but just because it's abnormally cold in Virginia doesn't mean the claimte (for whatever reason - possibly natutal variation) isn't changing. The further north you go, the greater amount of change once can see in the climate. Winters have warmed significantly over northern and southern Canada over the past 15-20 years. Granted, this likely happened 1000 years ago as well - I'm reading in Brian Fagan's "The Little Ice Age" that arctic waters were ice free for even longer than modern times around AD900- AD1300, so I don't necessarily think warming is disasterous as Al Gore and David Suzuki make out. The fact remains though that regardless of the cold conditions in the US in 2009-2010 (snow on the ground in all 50 states at one time!) and in western Europe in 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 places that are traditionally cold and snowy in the winter are increasingly, more often than not, not so. Again, i am not saying this is necessarily human induced.

Don, I would welcome your input and opinion on what I've said.

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My main issue with JB is that he seems to be ignoring the fact that eastern Canada has been very warm the past few winters, with only 2003, 2004 and 2009 having what I would call a cold winter. I greatly respect the fact that, given he is an American met, his main focusi s naturally going to be on US weather, even more specifically the mid atlantic and Ohio valley given that's where the majority of his subscribers are, but just because it's abnormally cold in Virginia doesn't mean the claimte (for whatever reason - possibly natutal variation) isn't changing. The further north you go, the greater amount of change once can see in the climate. Winters have warmed significantly over northern and southern Canada over the past 15-20 years. Granted, this likely happened 1000 years ago as well - I'm reading in Brian Fagan's "The Little Ice Age" that arctic waters were ice free for even longer than modern times around AD900- AD1300, so I don't necessarily think warming is disasterous as Al Gore and David Suzuki make out. The fact remains though that regardless of the cold conditions in the US in 2009-2010 (snow on the ground in all 50 states at one time!) and in western Europe in 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 places that are traditionally cold and snowy in the winter are increasingly, more often than not, not so. Again, i am not saying this is necessarily human induced.

Don, I would welcome your input and opinion on what I've said.

Ottawa Blizzard,

I share your concern regarding the warming of Canadian winters. I believe that what's happening in Canada reasonably well reflects the overall warming of the Arctic region and the warming has covered all of the Arctic. That extreme AO- events in the two preceding winters led to cold, snowy outcomes in parts of the eastern U.S./parts of Europe does not refect what is happening on a larger scale. That such events failed to lead to the kind of extreme Arctic outbreaks in eastern and central North America that often occurred during past extreme AO- regimes i.e., 1976-77 and 1985 does, in part, reflect upstream developments in the Arctic. The warming of the Arctic is continuing and that is leading to generally less expansive and less intense cold air masses. Winter (December-February) temperature composites on a decadal scale vividly illustrate the warming. Whether one compares the 2000s to the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s makes little difference. The Arctic in the 2000s has been warmer than any of those decades and the warm anomalies have covered almost all of the Arctic.

The increasing lack of cold and snow in parts of Canada also has an economic impact on local economies. So, it's not just a meteorological concern.

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Ottawa Blizzard,

I share your concern regarding the warming of Canadian winters. I believe that what's happening in Canada reasonably well reflects the overall warming of the Arctic region and the warming has covered all of the Arctic. That extreme AO- events in the two preceding winters led to cold, snowy outcomes in parts of the eastern U.S./parts of Europe does not refect what is happening on a larger scale. That such events failed to lead to the kind of extreme Arctic outbreaks in eastern and central North America that often occurred during past extreme AO- regimes i.e., 1976-77 and 1985 does, in part, reflect upstream developments in the Arctic. The warming of the Arctic is continuing and that is leading to generally less expansive and less intense cold air masses. Winter (December-February) temperature composites on a decadal scale vividly illustrate the warming. Whether one compares the 2000s to the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s makes little difference. The Arctic in the 2000s has been warmer than any of those decades and the warm anomalies have covered almost all of the Arctic.

The increasing lack of cold and snow in parts of Canada also has an economic impact on local economies. So, it's not just a meteorological concern.

Thank you for your input Don. It is much appreciated. You may recall the analysis I did last year on Januaries in Ottawa and how they have warmed significantly. While JB may point to analogs and similar years, he fails to point out that we are still crushing records up here. For example, 1952-53 was also mild and dry in Toronto, but 2009-2010 beat it. We may very well end up warmer than December 1931 in Toronto this December- an astounding feat when one considers that 1931-32 is considered a benchmark for winter warmth. 2007-2008 almost broke the 1970-71 record for snowfall at Ottawa, but 1970-71 saw both heavy snowfall AND extreme cold. Compare January 1971 to January 2008 for example. Both were La Ninas, but 2008 was much warmer, almost twice as warm in fact. 1976-77 was an El Nino which saw extreme winter conditions in the mid-atlantic, Ohio Valley AND Ontario/Quebec. 2009-2010 was an El Nino which saw no severe winter weather whatsoever in Ontario/Quebec. January 2004 was frigid in Ontario, but December 2003 was very mild. I believe the only reason 1993-94 ended up so cold amidst a slew of mild winters was because of the Mount Pinatubo effect.

Places like the mid-atlantic, Ohio valley and western Europe may indeed see cold and snowy conditions again, but the fact is that regions like that are not supposed to see cold and snow like that - it's a novelty down there. Areas that traditionally receive cold and snow on a sustained basis have not been seeing it as often. Ski hill operators, as well as the ice fishing business rely on severe cold for their income, but they have not been getting it lately - see Michigan for example. JB is hinting that we may see winters like the late 70s within the next few years, but will this just be where his subscriber base is, or will this be up in Ontario/Quebec as well? Time will tell.

I should reiterate that I don't necessarily think warming will be a disaster. The Medieval Warm period was a time of prosperity for many - cathedral building, wine harvesting in England ect. I just think that humanity will have to adapt to what nature throws at us and given there are a lot more of us than there were 1000 years ago, it may prove chaotic at times. I think we will probably see a few hundred years of temperatures similar to those betwee AD 900-AD1300.

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Thank you for your input Don. It is much appreciated. You may recall the analysis I did last year on Januaries in Ottawa and how they have warmed significantly. While JB may point to analogs and similar years, he fails to point out that we are still crushing records up here. For example, 1952-53 was also mild and dry in Toronto, but 2009-2010 beat it. We may very well end up warmer than December 1931 in Toronto this December- an astounding feat when one considers that 1931-32 is considered a benchmark for winter warmth. 2007-2008 almost broke the 1970-71 record for snowfall at Ottawa, but 1970-71 saw both heavy snowfall AND extreme cold. Compare January 1971 to January 2008 for example. Both were La Ninas, but 2008 was much warmer, almost twice as warm in fact. 1976-77 was an El Nino which saw extreme winter conditions in the mid-atlantic, Ohio Valley AND Ontario/Quebec. 2009-2010 was an El Nino which saw no severe winter weather whatsoever in Ontario/Quebec. January 2004 was frigid in Ontario, but December 2003 was very mild. I believe the only reason 1993-94 ended up so cold amidst a slew of mild winters was because of the Mount Pinatubo effect.

Places like the mid-atlantic, Ohio valley and western Europe may indeed see cold and snowy conditions again, but the fact is that regions like that are not supposed to see cold and snow like that - it's a novelty down there. Areas that traditionally receive cold and snow on a sustained basis have not been seeing it as often. Ski hill operators, as well as the ice fishing business rely on severe cold for their income, but they have not been getting it lately - see Michigan for example. JB is hinting that we may see winters like the late 70s within the next few years, but will this just be where his subscriber base is, or will this be up in Ontario/Quebec as well? Time will tell.

I should reiterate that I don't necessarily think warming will be a disaster. The Medieval Warm period was a time of prosperity for many - cathedral building, wine harvesting in England ect. I just think that humanity will have to adapt to what nature throws at us and given there are a lot more of us than there were 1000 years ago, it may prove chaotic at times. I think we will probably see a few hundred years of temperatures similar to those betwee AD 900-AD1300.

Lattitudes further north have been greatly affected by the loss of albedo in the Arctic when it comes to "extreme" cold air, while those further south have seen less deviation. IMO we hit the bottom out point in the Arctic ice loss, according to NSIDC, 2-3 year old ice has increased on coverage after the great flushing in 2008. The +AMO responsible for the flushing of ice is ending.

If you take the global mean temperature and remove the Arctic now, you get a weak cooling signal over the past decade+ which may explain why winters further south haven't been as affected, since albedo loss (large anomaly) over the arctic has been scewing the global trend upward when in reality the rest of the globe has not warmed at all...actually has been cooling at about 0.07C/decade when the entire arctic is removed. I am personally confident that trend will take off in earnest within the next 1-3 years.

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The GFS later hours are hinting a a blocking pattern and at least some parial splitting of mthe jet streams. Not that I buy it, but it has a little more credibility than usual because HM said patttern change 1/8

Euro weeklies were hinting at that as well. The timing may be off (too soon) though but we'll see.

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Euro weeklies were hinting at that as well. The timing may be off (too soon) though but we'll see.

I don't think I could draw a better pattern if I wanted to... LOOK OUT STARTING MID JANUARY!

That is a nice pattern for you guys. As with most Ninas The middle of the country is a nice place to be in January. Heavy snow and sometimes severe outbreaks like 2008.

There will probably be lot more cold air on the continent than December, however it maybe too far west to bring snow to I95 and my snowless winter forecast imby may hold on.

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My main issue with JB is that he seems to be ignoring the fact that eastern Canada has been very warm the past few winters, with only 2003, 2004 and 2009 having what I would call a cold winter. I greatly respect the fact that, given he is an American met, his main focusi s naturally going to be on US weather, even more specifically the mid atlantic and Ohio valley given that's where the majority of his subscribers are, but just because it's abnormally cold in Virginia doesn't mean the claimte (for whatever reason - possibly natutal variation) isn't changing. The further north you go, the greater amount of change once can see in the climate. Winters have warmed significantly over northern and southern Canada over the past 15-20 years. Granted, this likely happened 1000 years ago as well - I'm reading in Brian Fagan's "The Little Ice Age" that arctic waters were ice free for even longer than modern times around AD900- AD1300, so I don't necessarily think warming is disasterous as Al Gore and David Suzuki make out. The fact remains though that regardless of the cold conditions in the US in 2009-2010 (snow on the ground in all 50 states at one time!) and in western Europe in 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 places that are traditionally cold and snowy in the winter are increasingly, more often than not, not so. Again, i am not saying this is necessarily human induced.

Don, I would welcome your input and opinion on what I've said.

Ottawa Blizzard,

I share your concern regarding the warming of Canadian winters. I believe that what's happening in Canada reasonably well reflects the overall warming of the Arctic region and the warming has covered all of the Arctic. That extreme AO- events in the two preceding winters led to cold, snowy outcomes in parts of the eastern U.S./parts of Europe does not refect what is happening on a larger scale. That such events failed to lead to the kind of extreme Arctic outbreaks in eastern and central North America that often occurred during past extreme AO- regimes i.e., 1976-77 and 1985 does, in part, reflect upstream developments in the Arctic. The warming of the Arctic is continuing and that is leading to generally less expansive and less intense cold air masses. Winter (December-February) temperature composites on a decadal scale vividly illustrate the warming. Whether one compares the 2000s to the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s makes little difference. The Arctic in the 2000s has been warmer than any of those decades and the warm anomalies have covered almost all of the Arctic.

The increasing lack of cold and snow in parts of Canada also has an economic impact on local economies. So, it's not just a meteorological concern.

Thank you for your input Don. It is much appreciated. You may recall the analysis I did last year on Januaries in Ottawa and how they have warmed significantly. While JB may point to analogs and similar years, he fails to point out that we are still crushing records up here. For example, 1952-53 was also mild and dry in Toronto, but 2009-2010 beat it. We may very well end up warmer than December 1931 in Toronto this December- an astounding feat when one considers that 1931-32 is considered a benchmark for winter warmth. 2007-2008 almost broke the 1970-71 record for snowfall at Ottawa, but 1970-71 saw both heavy snowfall AND extreme cold. Compare January 1971 to January 2008 for example. Both were La Ninas, but 2008 was much warmer, almost twice as warm in fact. 1976-77 was an El Nino which saw extreme winter conditions in the mid-atlantic, Ohio Valley AND Ontario/Quebec. 2009-2010 was an El Nino which saw no severe winter weather whatsoever in Ontario/Quebec. January 2004 was frigid in Ontario, but December 2003 was very mild. I believe the only reason 1993-94 ended up so cold amidst a slew of mild winters was because of the Mount Pinatubo effect.

Places like the mid-atlantic, Ohio valley and western Europe may indeed see cold and snowy conditions again, but the fact is that regions like that are not supposed to see cold and snow like that - it's a novelty down there. Areas that traditionally receive cold and snow on a sustained basis have not been seeing it as often. Ski hill operators, as well as the ice fishing business rely on severe cold for their income, but they have not been getting it lately - see Michigan for example. JB is hinting that we may see winters like the late 70s within the next few years, but will this just be where his subscriber base is, or will this be up in Ontario/Quebec as well? Time will tell.

I should reiterate that I don't necessarily think warming will be a disaster. The Medieval Warm period was a time of prosperity for many - cathedral building, wine harvesting in England ect. I just think that humanity will have to adapt to what nature throws at us and given there are a lot more of us than there were 1000 years ago, it may prove chaotic at times. I think we will probably see a few hundred years of temperatures similar to those betwee AD 900-AD1300.

I appreciate you guys allowing this to entire into the discussion. I can not understand how people can take analogs so directly serious, expecially for the Northern Hemisphere when they were from a completely different arctic. This will throw things far out the window. It's not about climotalogy's future, it's about forecasting like it's 2011 and last year as the warmest year on record and so forth.

AGW is not apart of this. If you make it apart of it and do not believe it, then you will make a forecast that excludes the change in energy balance.

Locally, we have had Mets fail hard hard core forecasting like it's 1978 and not 2011.

Whether it's cooler or warmer in ten years, today it is what it is.

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I appreciate you guys allowing this to entire into the discussion. I can not understand how people can take analogs so directly serious, expecially for the Northern Hemisphere when they were from a completely different arctic. This will throw things far out the window. It's not about climotalogy's future, it's about forecasting like it's 2011 and last year as the warmest year on record and so forth.

AGW is not apart of this. If you make it apart of it and do not believe it, then you will make a forecast that excludes the change in energy balance.

Locally, we have had Mets fail hard hard core forecasting like it's 1978 and not 2011.

Whether it's cooler or warmer in ten years, today it is what it is.

As noted in numerous posts in the past, I do take the observed warming into consideration. The Arctic is warmer than it has been in earlier decades. Cold air masses are less expansive and less intense in general. Hence, one has to take that into consideration. Analogs lend insight into patterns, but one has to take other factors into consideration.

FWIW, my forecast for Winter 2011-12 was a warmer than normal winter in the eastern U.S. Quite frankly, I don't see how 1978 would even be viable for this winter (ENSO differed, blocking was much stronger in that winter, the Arctic was much colder then, etc.).

Finally, I accept the scientific consensus on AGW.

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As noted in numerous posts in the past, I do take the observed warming into consideration. The Arctic is warmer than it has been in earlier decades. Cold air masses are less expansive and less intense in general. Hence, one has to take that into consideration. Analogs lend insight into patterns, but one has to take other factors into consideration.

FWIW, my forecast for Winter 2011-12 was a warmer than normal winter in the eastern U.S. Quite frankly, I don't see how 1978 would even be viable for this winter (ENSO differed, blocking was much stronger in that winter, the Arctic was much colder then, etc.).

Finally, I accept the scientific consensus on AGW.

I am glad you incorporate the reality of the current overall climate scheme Stating this will probably detour some from your future forecasts but I hope they do not let that get in the way because you are very open to many things which probably help your forecasts quite a bit.

I didn't mean they used 1978 as an analog, I mean't they forecast like it's the good old days. The good old days we all miss. But that was an Earth with far less energy around and a larger cold pool.

166-6.png

166-7.png

I am not trying to show anything with AGW. I have to clarify for everyone who may think that. But when we are talking winter forecasts, The climate drivers are changing. We will have to adapt or not be utilizing the best techniques.

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