Weekend storm - Grasping for straws

[PhineasC]

I don't think this has ever looked good for NE. I think even NYC will be fringed at best.

Terrible call based on the 12Z GFS. I am praying Euro doesn't remain OTS.

[kurtstack]

not one model right now shows an I95 except for the GFS which barely has us getting into the action. We need some major changes in the next 48 hours

Didn't even take 48 hours to get the major changes you were requesting.

[H2O]

I for one would like to see some consistency in each run from here on out before saying that the GFS finally got it.

[MDstorm]

I for one would like to see some consistency in each run from here on out before saying that the GFS finally got it.

Come on now, the GFS is only a mere 48-60 hours from getting into its target zone.

MDstorm

[Dr No]

Anyone see the clown maps? Almost looks like another 12/19 day (with a little less).

http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

[DC Mike]

A number of the 12Z GFS Ensemble members are well west of the OP

[Master of Disaster]

Anyone see the clown maps? Almost looks like another 12/19 day (with a little less).

http://grib2.com/gfs...-SNOW_120HR.gif

That map just pisses me off. Nice cutoff at the Mason Dixon line so I get nothing at the house. That happened last year too for one of the storms.

[mappy]

That map just pisses me off. Nice cutoff at the Mason Dixon line so I get nothing at the house. That happened last year too for one of the storms.

it's also only out to 120 hours, but the storm goes beyond 120....

[clskinsfan]

The GFS ensembles look good for our area. The Euro concerns me though. We are getting close to its "deadly range" and it is not on board.

[aldie 22]

Still written in pencil but the cap is off of the pen now

[Master of Disaster]

it's also only out to 120 hours, but the storm goes beyond 120....

Thats a really great point actually.

[mappy]

Thats a really great point actually.

See. I can be nice.

[Ian]

im contemplating a first guess

[aldie 22]

im contemplating a first guess

Will you write in pen or pencil

[Don Cherry's Jacket]

im contemplating a first guess

Will that include a Thursday and a Weekend, or just a Weekend?

[H2O]

im contemplating a first guess

premature accumulation

[Ian]

Will you write in pen or pencil

invisible ink

[Ian]

Will that include a Thursday and a Weekend, or just a Weekend?

weekend

[mappy]

premature accumulation

At first read... I gagged.

invisible ink

cheater.

[Kmlwx]

Will you write in pen or pencil

Erasable ink

[Ian]

At first read... I gagged.

cheater.

3-6 / 4-8 seem like good numbers but not having the euro is problematic

[Ellinwood]

im contemplating a first guess

2-4 if non-snow precip mixes in, otherwise 5-8 (at DCA).

[Master of Disaster]

premature accumulation

Now for you, thats really pretty hilarious. Interesting.

[Ian]

2-4 if non-snow precip mixes in, otherwise 5-8 (at DCA).

i havent even contemplated mixing but i guess that's always a concern around here

[Kmlwx]

2-4 if non-snow precip mixes in, otherwise 5-8 (at DCA).

so if that's at DCA..............what about your area and my area

[H2O]

4" tops at DCA-early call. I bet GFS goes S at 0z

[Ellinwood]

so if that's at DCA..............what about your area and my area

The hell should I know... this is my first time forecasting a big snow event for D.C.

You all should know your area's biases

i havent even contemplated mixing but i guess that's always a concern around here

Considering where the GFS has been, it wouldn't take much to nudge the storm further N/W and introduce some mixed precip into the area.

[mappy]

[weenie who wants a white wedding anniversary] 12+ at BWI

[actual early forecast] 4ish at BWI

[Kmlwx]

Early Guess -

DCA: 3.2 inches

BWI: 2.9 inches

[yoda]

15z SREFs at 87 hrs looks good (its WAY out there I know)