Rainshadow Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Rainshadow better get those tee times earlier. OUCH! Wow maybe there is a typo in all our calendars, its really 2001-2 (again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the euro in the long range has been changing every run... the clipper the gfs has the euro has nothing...both models in the long range dictate a gradient like pattern which looks like we may be on the wrong side of...it all depends where that pv drops, if its western canada kiss any snow chances good bye. The return of the ak vortex without any blocking that most models show us reverting back to is basically the kiss of death for us in terms of cold and snow. Pete might luck out in the transition phase events because of his location and altitude. Its a tough winter when someone living in the Poconos is on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Pete might luck out in the transition phase events because of his location and altitude. Its a tough winter when someone living in the Poconos is on the edge. Thanks for the response yesterday...very informative....I hope it did not come off like I was calling people out.....just interesting how adam called the bluff..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Anyone wanna discuss the snow squalls with the arctic front later this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Thanks for the response yesterday...very informative....I hope it did not come off like I was calling people out.....just interesting how adam called the bluff..... Adam has come on quite strong with long term outlooks. He, Wes & Don Sutherland would make a very formidable forecasting team. I didn't view anything you posted as calling anyone out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Adam has come on quite strong with long term outlooks. He, Wes & Don Sutherland would make a very formidable forecasting team. I didn't view anything you posted as calling anyone out. that would be an interesting "radio show" team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 yes ralph I'm waiting to hear people talk about that too from what I hear they could be like severe thunderstorms . I also hear temps will be crashing from 40 to mid 20s in the matter of an hour. With 1 to 2 inches possible in the lehigh valley and poconos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 that would be an interesting "radio show" team I you like hot air over the waves..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This looks like a dynamic setup as the arctic front crosses with a quick 1" burst in some spots: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's a pretty good recipe for a torch even into New England. Higher than normal heights to the east and northeast creating ruler flow from sw-ne and not allowing good cold to penetrate south. Upper low retros into the GOA and PAC firehose floods the US with warmth. Only thing that would save us is any sip in the jet from some sort of transient ridge allowing for cold to dip into this area and overrunning type precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Adam has come on quite strong with long term outlooks. He, Wes & Don Sutherland would make a very formidable forecasting team. I didn't view anything you posted as calling anyone out. You've probably jinxed us...we'll be humbled soon enough. Heck I was humbled by my 1.3 inch snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Anyone wanna discuss the snow squalls with the arctic front later this week? yes ralph I'm waiting to hear people talk about that too from what I hear they could be like severe thunderstorms . I also hear temps will be crashing from 40 to mid 20s in the matter of an hour. With 1 to 2 inches possible in the lehigh valley and poconos It's going to be in the 40's ahead of the front Thursday night. It'll be gusty showers that might end as snow on the back end up to our north. You aren't getting "severe thunderstorms" in this setup...it's a good ol' fashioned cold front. 1" of snow possible, yes. Severe thunderstorms, naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's going to be in the 40's ahead of the front Thursday night. It'll be gusty showers that might end as snow on the back end up to our north. You aren't getting "severe thunderstorms" in this setup...it's a good ol' fashioned cold front. 1" of snow possible, yes. Severe thunderstorms, naso much. If this pattern holds long enough with these types of storm tracks, I could be one happy filmer of thunderstorms in the coming months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It's going to be in the 40's ahead of the front Thursday night. It'll be gusty showers that might end as snow on the back end up to our north. You aren't getting "severe thunderstorms" in this setup...it's a good ol' fashioned cold front. 1" of snow possible, yes. Severe thunderstorms, naso much. This. The forecast soundings as they are right now really don't offer much below the Poconos. Very windy on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Some JB quotes from today...he has a forecast # of 9 degrees for NYC on Monday AM....he doesn't see it in the models.... "Now that the cold is around, the linkage is quicker, on the order of 10-20 days. The warming coming for the day 11-20 period should flip back, probably stronger and longer as this is in the more classic position. That means the ridge you see that develops over the northwest atlantic while it will do its dirty work, should pull north with time and allow a new and stronger mean trough position over the east day 21-40. But there is a cooling that has gone on, and now its a no hold source region pattern and we are going to see a demonstration of how source regions work Its kind of a shame that the warmth coming is ruining the next 10 days. I mean we have an underforecasted arctic shot coming into the northeast Sunday and Monday and I have 9 as the number in the park,. The 06z GFS supported me, the 12z is saying I AM TOO WARM for instance. This was outlined last week, how these troughs work. Of course we have 3 separate snow events, the interior mtn northeast one first and then the trough itself which will produce the snows in the midwest and lakes, and the Appalachians as it swings through and with it a sharp turn to colder. The of course, if we get the day 9 euro to work, look out. I am fired up about Monday morning since while all the nations from the plains east is turning colder, I think people are really missing the boat on the classic "How does it get so Cold in New England" scenario , and this was outlined as something to look for last week. But look here is the upcoming 10 day highlight, and again, from Portland to Portland, its going to get frigid. and with warmth coming out further south, we have a major wild fight pattern setting up." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Well, that's one way to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wow at the temps this weekend! I have a crew heading to Stowe where it will be BRUTAL SAT and SUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Welcoming the cold but no white on ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 With apologies to cold lovers out there, cold, dry weather in between mild-temperature rainstorms is really annoying. Let's bring on some severe wx and torchy temps because I am so done with this "winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 With apologies to cold lovers out there, cold, dry weather in between mild-temperature rainstorms is really annoying. Let's bring on some severe wx and torchy temps because I am so done with this "winter". Though no snow is a bummer, I'm okay with the ground hardening up this weekend. I've got to get my truck into some people's yards for firewood deliveries. I'd rather not leave ruts. Reading Don's post in the main forum - it looks we have to wait for March to rock... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Though no snow is a bummer, I'm okay with the ground hardening up this weekend. I've got to get my truck into some people's yards for firewood deliveries. I'd rather not leave ruts. Reading Don's post in the main forum - it looks we have to wait for March to rock... A vehiicle in my backyard would result in this......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 A vehiicle in my backyard would result in this......... Yeah, I'm not much of a fan of slog-fests, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 A vehiicle in my backyard would result in this......... Just bought a set of new on/off road tires this week ($1000), but they sure don't look like them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 A vehiicle in my backyard would result in this......... Here's my bike stuck in the backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Here's my bike stuck in the backyard. heres mike's snow blower...keeps some of it exposed so he doesn't back into it with his car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Well, that's one way to look at it. Even though Central Park mins are all about advection growing up in NYC I don't recall too many single digit mins without snow on the ground. Nick Stefano told me in Wantage (NW Sussex NJ) its even rare for him to get below zero without snow on the ground. If I'm wrong (again) I'll fess up on mon/tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Even though Central Park mins are all about advection growing up in NYC I don't recall too many single digit mins without snow on the ground. Nick Stefano told me in Wantage (NW Sussex NJ) its even rare for him to get below zero without snow on the ground. If I'm wrong (again) I'll fess up on mon/tue. I don't know enough about the climate of KNYC to comment intelligently. I actually don't have much of a problem with what he posted in terms of the actual weather. My post was more about how he decided to frame his forecast. I know I'm a "warminista," but to me, the biggest weather story in the next two weeks is the exceptionally warm temps showing up in Week 2, not the transient cold this weekend or late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 heres mike's snow blower...keeps some of it exposed so he doesn't back into it with his car I think Mike took it with him to upstate NY for the holidays so it would get some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I don't know enough about the climate of KNYC to comment intelligently. I actually don't have much of a problem with what he posted in terms of the actual weather. My post was more about how he decided to frame his forecast. I know I'm a "warminista," but to me, the biggest weather story in the next two weeks is the exceptionally warm temps showing up in Week 2, not the transient cold this weekend or late next week. But that can't be the most important story. I myself can't really comment specifically on the New England aspect, would agree whatever happens in NYC it should be relative to normal colder there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Here's my bike stuck in the backyard. Tony, wow, at least you have some snow on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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