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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I would probably say congrats to you, then kill you if that verified.

We'll see if these "changes" stick in subsequent runs. By Monday if they're still there in the long long term I'll bite. Not convinced yet juts based on what some of the long range folks are saying elsewhere.

If the 12/3ish event flops, I think we get into January AT logan.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

We'll see if these "changes" stick in subsequent runs. By Monday if they're still there in the long long term I'll bite. Not convinced yet juts based on what some of the long range folks are saying elsewhere.

If the 12/3ish event flops, I think we get into January AT logan.

It's probably a transient shot. It didn't look like a regime change just yet....it was an improvement.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

It's probably a transient shot. It didn't look like a regime change just yet....it was an improvement.

When I hear of regime change I start waiting for bombs to drop. Regime changes always take forever.

Lots of squirrel talk. I saw two today definitely not demonstrating winter like behavior. Ironically this is what mother nature is doing to SNE right now and into the next week or so.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The ridging out near the PNA region stays around post Dec 5th on the ensembles which helps keep us cool after a brief warmup around Dec 5-6. If we can keep that type of ridging there and have some sort of N ATL ridging...even if still a +NAO...then we can have some wintry weather.

Again, as mentioned before, that was what Dec 1975 was like and that was a cold and snowy month overall.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

The ridging out near the PNA region stays around post Dec 5th on the ensembles which helps keep us cool after a brief warmup around Dec 5-6. If we can keep that type of ridging there and have some sort of N ATL ridging...even if still a +NAO...then we can have some wintry weather.

Again, as mentioned before, that was what Dec 1975 was like and that was a cold and snowy month overall.

Has that been an analog yr?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The one time where we can't buy a -NAO.

We're gonna need that ridge, because the se ridge probably isn't going anywhere. Lets just hope it happens.

N ATL ridge isn't bad for getting cold pressed south...its just usually very poor for getting big coastal storms since its not a blocking pattern...but they can help give us a good antecedent air mass for a SWFE.

If we can get some sneaky highs north of NH/ME, then we can usually do ok...ala Dec '07 and the previously mentioned '75.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

N ATL ridge isn't bad for getting cold pressed south...its just usually very poor for getting big coastal storms since its not a blocking pattern...but they can help give us a good antecedent air mass for a SWFE.

If we can get some sneaky highs north of NH/ME, then we can usually do ok...ala Dec '07 and the previously mentioned '75.

I think Scooter is worried about the cp getting screwed in that setup while interior might have a few wintry storms..youd' be all snow..I'd be snow to ice to drizzle or something

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I think Scooter is worried about the cp getting screwed in that setup while interior might have a few wintry storms..youd' be all snow..I'd be snow to ice to drizzle or something

Well BOS did just fine in those setups in the past. If we get a storm like today but 2 weeks from now...then he'd probably be screwed since it came in kind of far west and gave more E flow off the ocean.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Yep nice month and nice big snowstorm like five days before Christmas.... still recall that day well.

.

The ridging out near the PNA region stays around post Dec 5th on the ensembles which helps keep us cool after a brief warmup around Dec 5-6. If we can keep that type of ridging there and have some sort of N ATL ridging...even if still a +NAO...then we can have some wintry weather.

Again, as mentioned before, that was what Dec 1975 was like and that was a cold and snowy month overall.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I think Scooter is worried about the cp getting screwed in that setup while interior might have a few wintry storms..youd' be all snow..I'd be snow to ice to drizzle or something

I know if the air is cold enough I can cash in. I beat you in Dec '07 and '08. I know all about these SWFE. The NATL ridge does help, but I'm just not sure it will be a unique feature. It might be just higher heights from the se into the Atlantic which may give more NNE snow than SNE. Obviously from Will on north, can still get hit.

That period from near the 3rd would be ok for me..or at least good enough for some snow, but if the ridge relaxes more, afterwards, it may be more meh. It's just discussion....I do like seeing the +PNA...I just don't see reason to jump for joy yet. It will ultimately come down to timing and what happens ion NW Canada.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

When I hear of regime change I start waiting for bombs to drop. Regime changes always take forever.

Lots of squirrel talk. I saw two today definitely not demonstrating winter like behavior. Ironically this is what mother nature is doing to SNE right now and into the next week or so.

I'm getting 80, you're getting 20. Gradient patterns blow for some...

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

I know if the air is cold enough I can cash in. I beat you in Dec '07 and '08. I know all about these SWFE. The NATL ridge does help, but I'm just not sure it will be a unique feature. It might be just higher heights from the se into the Atlantic which may give more NNE snow than SNE. Obviously from Will on north, can still get hit.

That period from near the 3rd would be ok for me..or at least good enough for some snow, but if the ridge relaxes more, afterwards, it may be more meh. It's just discussion....I do like seeing the +PNA...I just don't see reason to jump for joy yet. It will ultimately come down to timing and what happens ion NW Canada.

I'll take all the SWFE's that the pattern wants to yield.. :scooter:

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Footsteps are loud..getting louder..they're closing in

ONE MODEL...THE ECMWF...HAS GONE IN A COMPLETELY

DIFFERENT DIRECTION...WHICH IS WORRISOME. OVER THE LAST TWO OP

RUNS...IT HAS BLASTED THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN CUTTING

OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SE U.S...IN EFFECT TRYING TO SPLIT THE

UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT THE ECMWF IS

A GOOD PERFORMER...AND CAN SOMETIMES SIGNAL PATTERN CHANGES BEFORE

OTHER MODELS.

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

Footsteps are loud..getting louder..they're closing in

ONE MODEL...THE ECMWF...HAS GONE IN A COMPLETELY

DIFFERENT DIRECTION...WHICH IS WORRISOME. OVER THE LAST TWO OP

RUNS...IT HAS BLASTED THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN CUTTING

OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SE U.S...IN EFFECT TRYING TO SPLIT THE

UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT THE ECMWF IS

A GOOD PERFORMER...AND CAN SOMETIMES SIGNAL PATTERN CHANGES BEFORE

OTHER MODELS.

what word would you use here?

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Footsteps are loud..getting louder..they're closing in

ONE MODEL...THE ECMWF...HAS GONE IN A COMPLETELY

DIFFERENT DIRECTION...WHICH IS WORRISOME. OVER THE LAST TWO OP

RUNS...IT HAS BLASTED THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN CUTTING

OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SE U.S...IN EFFECT TRYING TO SPLIT THE

UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT THE ECMWF IS

A GOOD PERFORMER...AND CAN SOMETIMES SIGNAL PATTERN CHANGES BEFORE

OTHER MODELS.

Lest you forget

Ginx, on 19 November 2011 - 02:45 PM, said:

Kevin you bailed last year, you bailed this year, we expect no less.

CT Blizz said

No I never bailed last year. I am not bailing this year. I am simply expressing my worries of a lost month of winter..Just like I did last year. I'm still hopeful Jan and Feb are good months this year. But for you to post this AM that the pattern looks good to you in early Dec is laughable

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