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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

looks like a solid 5 to 7 days of well above normal stuff coming before maybe we settle into a less anomalous above normal pattern overall.

nothing too exciting for the time being.

Looks like we're near normal by Tuesday next week and slightly below to near normal for a few days as we head for that weekend .At this point that will be welcomed

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

The PNA charts may be mixed, because we have two different features in the domain. We have a + tilted southwest US trough and then some ridging in NW Canada. Lets just hope that wins out.

Big differences between the ESRL and NCEP. The PNA doesn't look impressive in both images.

compare.pn.png

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

I'm not a big index guy....I just like to look at the height pattern. I could care less if the NAO charts look favorable or unfavorable...it's all about placement of the height features.

it's probably more likely the left image is more right anyway...it seems that any type of blocking has been over-forecasted of late. It's pretty sad that we can basically kick out the big low over AK and move it west into the Aleutians...pop a decent west coast ridge and still have serious problems getting cold into the eastern US. The death low is a problem...but it seems like it's not the only key to the puzzle. That strong +AO is killing mid-latitude temperatures for the forseeable future.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

scooter's yo-yo in full effect on the gfs after later next week, cold, mild, cold, mild etc.

some decent cold in there if it were to be believed.

Just keep the train moving along ... mild, mild, mild, cold, massive snowstorm, mild, mild, mild ...

It would be nice if the end of the GFS ensembles verified. Break off a piece of that vortex and rip it southeast, while the main part of it goes into ne Siberia.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

it's probably more likely the left image is more right anyway...it seems that any type of blocking has been over-forecasted of late. It's pretty sad that we can basically kick out the big low over AK and move it west into the Aleutians...pop a decent west coast ridge and still have serious problems getting cold into the eastern US. The death low is a problem...but it seems like it's not the only key to the puzzle. That strong +AO is killing mid-latitude temperatures for the forseeable future.

I think the only way that I can see it being disrupted is through tropical forcing. I'm sure there are other factors that can work in tandem, but I think it's the biggest piece of the puzzle.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

I think the only way that I can see it being disrupted is through tropical forcing. I'm sure there are other factors that can work in tandem, but I think it's the biggest piece of the puzzle.

tropical forcing to disrupt the AK vortex or the +AO in general? I agree it's all related...it's tough to break that vortex out of there and get ridging since the +AO is detrimental to high-latitude blocking. Some of the models have shown the vortex shifting west into the Aleutians but it still doesn't do much to get the cold in here. The cut-off is actually hurting to get the cold around here too...it "blocks" some of those shortwave trying to move southeast out of Canada.

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

Posted
Posted

euro?, hmmmm

I came here to see who would bite first. It seems like a highly unlikely but technically possible solution.

That said, even verbatim it's more of a near-miss than a hit, i.e., too warm near the coast and too dry for interior locations to get much out of it. The shortwave is too weak and the cold front is poorly timed.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

tropical forcing to disrupt the AK vortex or the +AO in general? I agree it's all related...it's tough to break that vortex out of there and get ridging since the +AO is detrimental to high-latitude blocking. Some of the models have shown the vortex shifting east into the Aleutians but it still doesn't do much to get the cold in here. The cut-off is actually hurting to get the cold around here too...it "blocks" some of those shortwave trying to move southeast out of Canada.

Well both I suppose. I'm just really guessing.

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