Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

[Ginx snewx]

I came here to see who would bite first. It seems like a highly unlikely but technically possible solution.

That said, even verbatim it's more of a near-miss than a hit, i.e., too warm near the coast and too dry for interior locations to get much out of it. The shortwave is too weak and the cold front is poorly timed.

Was referring to the huge shift in the AK death vortex replaced by a monster hP and definite pattern difference.

[OSUmetstud]

Was referring to the huge shift in the AK death vortex replaced by a monster hP and definite pattern difference.

now only if we can solve the Atlantic

[weathafella]

now only if we can solve the Atlantic

I'll take that pattern with a positive NAO any day of the week. That's my favorite winter coming back. Sam FTW!

[moneypitmike]

I'll take that pattern with a positive NAO any day of the week. That's my favorite winter coming back. Sam FTW!

Yup.

33.2/32

[Ginx snewx]

now only if we can solve the Atlantic

Lets see what transpires but I have been hawking the first week of Dec for a while. While not a shift to an arctic outbreak its a shift to normal which is way better than mucho above nornal. Atlantic sems fine, get us a -EPO and a ridge in AK.

[weathafella]

Lets see what transpires but I have been hawking the first week of Dec for a while. While not a shift to an arctic outbreak its a shift to normal which is way better than mucho above nornal. Atlantic sems fine, get us a -EPO and a ridge in AK.

It's a setup for greatness. That ridge diverts the cold east of AK. It will ultimatley lead to a wonderful regime if it actually happens.

[icebreaker5221]

Was referring to the huge shift in the AK death vortex replaced by a monster hP and definite pattern difference.

Fair enough. I would still be skeptical of anything beyond 120 hrs right now with those dual cutoff lows modeled in the E.Pac, but it is a promising sign.

[OSUmetstud]

it's still discouraging to see the low heights over AK on the 00z euro ensembles...but who knows maybe the op is onto something?

[snowNH]

Can anyone post maps of the euro storm at 168?

[weathafella]

it's still discouraging to see the low heights over AK on the 00z euro ensembles...but who knows maybe the op is onto something?

Let's see what the new ensembles have. This is a big change so maybe it's a burp or a signal that it may happen beginning 12/10 and finishing 12/25....

[weatherMA]

Locking Euro snow next week AWT

lol...12/1 would be a great day for a storm...much better then 12/3 so lets try to shoot for the 12/1 storm...although both would be fine.

[OSUmetstud]

Let's see what the new ensembles have. This is a big change so maybe it's a burp or a signal that it may happen beginning 12/10 and finishing 12/25....

you love beating that 12/10 drum lol. Anyway, I think the op change would be considerably before your idea of a pattern change. a 400 m ridge in AK is a huge change from what we've been seeing and the 00z euro ensembles.

[weathafella]

you love beating that 12/10 drum lol. Anyway, I think the op change would be considerably before your idea of a pattern change. a 400 m ridge in AK is a huge change from what we've been seeing and the 00z euro ensembles.

I agree. That's why I think they're jumping the gun....lol..

[CoastalWx]

The op runs are everywhere beyond day 7, so tough to get excited unless I see the ensembles suite agree.

They do have those higher heights, and try to shove some cold in here near the 3rd accompanied by some sort of low possible. One of the reasons I thought the 3rd give or take a day, is when something could threaten.

[Ginx snewx]

Can anyone post maps of the euro storm at 168?

There is no storm really just a back end transistion to snow which of course never happens. The OP has been all over the place, was just nice to see a change in the ho hum drum.

[Ginx snewx]

I agree. That's why I think they're jumping the gun....lol..

It is a sign of change though..... somethings happening here was it is ain't exactly clear.

[atownwxwatcher]

Can anyone post maps of the euro storm at 168?

At 174 hours it is south of Cape Cod

[OSUmetstud]

there's definitely considerable support for a ridge on the West Coast...just not so much for into AK yet.

[weathafella]

It is a sign of change though..... somethings happening here was it is ain't exactly clear.

There's a man with ensembles over there....telling you ...you've got to be beware.

Hey what's that sound.......vortex in AK no longer around.......

Paranoia strikes deep. Inter your weenie hearts it can creep.

It starts when you're afraid it will rain........fearing more of the same........

[Ginx snewx]

There's a man with ensembles over there....telling you ...you've got to be beware.

Hey what's that sound.......vortex in AK no longer around.......

Paranoia strikes deep. Inter your weenie hearts it can creep.

It starts when you're afraid it will rain........fearing more of the same........

You better stop weenies what's that sound, everybody look what's coming down.

[dendrite]

There is no storm really just a back end transistion to snow which of course never happens. The OP has been all over the place, was just nice to see a change in the ho hum drum.

Looks like a stalled/slowing front with a wave forming on it and riding up the coast. Too far out to worry about though.

Hopefully the ens look even half as good as the op.

[Ginx snewx]

Looks like a stalled/slowing front with a wave forming on it and riding up the coast. Too far out to worry about though.

Hopefully the ens look even half as good as the op.

The Rev says lock it up

[dendrite]

Looks like a stalled/slowing front with a wave forming on it and riding up the coast. Too far out to worry about though.

Hopefully the ens look even half as good as the op.

Actually n/m...the original SE low is from the rotting cutoff. Looks like some of the moisture gets entrained into that front and then that northern stream shortwave/energy redevelop the coastal as it moves northeast. It probably won't verify anything close to that so it doesn't matter anyways.

[CoastalWx]

I knew the Wunderground ECMWF was going to be trouble...lol.

[dendrite]

I knew the Wunderground ECMWF was going to be trouble...lol.

Those maps are going to give the Euro a DGEX reputation.

[CoastalWx]

Those maps are going to give the Euro a DGEX reputation.

They are such weenie maps. I must have had 12" already owed to me from those clown maps.

[Ginx snewx]

I knew the Wunderground ECMWF was going to be trouble...lol.

Did you see its performance with todays storm, pretty damn good, not a bad tool at all.

[Ginx snewx]

They are such weenie maps. I must have had 12" already owed to me from those clown maps.

From Halloween?

[CoastalWx]

Did you see its performance with todays storm, pretty damn good, not a bad tool at all.

I looked at them maybe once when they had snow into CT iirc.

[OSUmetstud]

Did you see its performance with todays storm, pretty damn good, not a bad tool at all.

little too much snow over northern Mass....but other than that...not bad.