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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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wish i had access to the ec ens beyond day 10 to see how they handle heights out west and into the GOA. things look better in the day 6-9 period but by day 10 the ridging off the west coast seems like it's getting pinched and heights are dropping in the GOA. obviously can't tell if it's just a 1 day wobble or the start of the pattern sort of reverting or what not.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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wish i had access to the ec ens beyond day 10 to see how they handle heights out west and into the GOA. things look better in the day 6-9 period but by day 10 the ridging off the west coast seems like it's getting pinched and heights are dropping in the GOA. obviously can't tell if it's just a 1 day wobble or the start of the pattern sort of reverting or what not.

They do get pinched off a little, but at the same time, the vortex lifts west of AK which is good. There are still subtle signs of ridging and that trough continues to knife down from Hudson Bay. However, we are at the mercy of the trough out in the southwest and the + NAO which is going to keep a gradient pattern going it seems. I don't really see any big time cold air like we had in '07 and '08 which may be a disappointment, but it doesn't appear to torch either.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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They do get pinched off a little, but at the same time, the vortex lifts west of AK which is good. There are still subtle signs of ridging and that trough continues to knife down from Hudson Bay. However, we are at the mercy of the trough out in the southwest and the + NAO which is going to keep a gradient pattern going it seems. I don't really see any big time cold air like we had in '07 and '08 which may be a disappointment, but it doesn't appear to torch either.

cool thanks. appreciate it. sort of AWT i guess.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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no drastic changes for the time being it seems. everything kind of seems on track with what we've been discussing for the better part of the last 3 weeks.

looks like a prolonged stretch starting tomorrow of well above normal temps...which hopefully comes to an end thu/fri of next week as some more seasonable early december air tries to make inroads.

:huh:

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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When you look at the mass fields, there is constant high pressure to the south. That's normally not a good place to have a high, but I think it also suggests we are going to have the storm track probably very close to SNE...give or take. Colder air will be nearby. In other words...SWFE.

I still like that time near the 3rd..give or take a day, for something. It might be nothing or a NNE deal...but something may be going on around that time.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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The Chesterfield Co-op closed in 2003. What went down in 2004?

An epic winter for all...especially Phil.

But that was a weak El Nino winter, so using that as an analog for the winter probably isn't a good idea.

What Phil is referring to, are the analogs that models throw out for the next 8-14 days.

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Logan11

Logan11

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Not a bad cool period this week for a "transient cold shot" .... Three days in a row with highs in the 30's and a low of 17 on Tuesday. That's overachieving when you consider the overall upper level pattern. Sorry I wasn't 30 miles further north for the storm, but quite a decent ice storm fwiw.

You'll pass within about 10 miles of here as pass west of SCH on your trip to BUF. One of the most monotonous stretches of interstate in the country from here to BUF as it follows the Mohawk Valley and then lake plain and avoids all the high hills and deep valleys just south,,,,such as along US-20.

Happy T-giving all. Frosty morning this AM. Rare that we get such a thick frost on the hill. 28.4

Looks like we'll be driving to Buffalo next Saturday in a snowstorm.. Few more mild days and then it's over

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ski MRG

ski MRG

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Not a bad cool period this week for a "transient cold shot" .... Three days in a row with highs in the 30's and a low of 17 on Tuesday. That's overachieving when you consider the overall upper level pattern. Sorry I wasn't 30 miles further north for the storm, but quite a decent ice storm fwiw.

You'll pass within about 10 miles of here as pass west of SCH on your trip to BUF. One of the most monotonous stretches of interstate in the country from here to BUF as it follows the Mohawk Valley and then lake plain and avoids all the high hills and deep valleys just south,,,,such as along US-20.

You've got that right. As someone that has made that drive countless times I cab attest to how mind numbingly boring it is. No terrain features to look at. The only hope you have for excitement is to drive into a LES band.

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Logan11

Logan11

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And it stays that way right west across Ontario (if you take Canadian roads) and then right across MI. But yeah you don't care about terrain if a strong LES squall comes in. :)

I take 20 lots of times to save the $12 toll each way and it is pretty with massive hill, valley, hill, etc... all the way.

y

You've got that right. As someone that has made that drive countless times I cab attest to how mind numbingly boring it is. No terrain features to look at. The only hope you have for excitement is to drive into a LES band.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Well maybe it's that early...gfs would support your idea. I'd tend to lean later but who knows.

Regardless...at a minimum a solid 5+ day stretch of grass-growing, plant-flowering, mosquito-hatching torch ahead.

40's today..50's tomorrow until Tuesday..That' s bad...but it could be worse with 60's,70's and rain or mugginess I guess. At least nite's will be chilly with high pressure

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Logan11

Logan11

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The main negative to the mild November around here from a bug perspective is the tick hatching.... I still have to worry about going into the thick woods with the deer ticks. It's nice when I can feel confident they are all deceased.

Well maybe it's that early...gfs would support your idea. I'd tend to lean later but who knows.

Regardless...at a minimum a solid 5+ day stretch of grass-growing, plant-flowering, mosquito-hatching torch ahead.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

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And it stays that way right west across Ontario (if you take Canadian roads) and then right across MI. But yeah you don't care about terrain if a strong LES squall comes in. :)

I take 20 lots of times to save the $12 toll each way and it is pretty with massive hill, valley, hill, etc... all the way.

y

If you're heading from the Berkshires out toward Erie, PA and points west, I think it's actually better to do I-88 W from Schenectady and then I-86 W from Binghamton. It's only about 20 miles longer, but it's a scenic drive and no there's hefty Thruway toll. To say that the NY Thruway is a boring drive is putting it mildly.

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

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I am getting used to this nice weather and I still get to go fishing a fair amount. I was perusing through some of the amateur winter forecasts on youtube for this winter and a lot of them like the idea of big snow and cold from the northern mid atlantic through most if not all of new england.

maybe its a bookends kind of winter like 96-97 with the big hitters early and late. That year in Bristol half of the snow for the whole winter fell in two storms, one in early Dec and the other April 1. We still had our fifty inches that season. I shudder to think of what happened the next winter...gross

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Logan11

Logan11

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Yeah I'm about one mile from I-88 (8-10 miles from it's eastern terminus) so I use that a lot to go to my cousin's place in the western Southern Tier. Much better west of BGM now that's it's becoming I-86 and they finally bypassed the towns. Wouldn't work too good for BUF, but great for father southwest like you said.

If you're heading from the Berkshires out toward Erie, PA and points west, I think it's actually better to do I-88 W from Schenectady and then I-86 W from Binghamton. It's only about 20 miles longer, but it's a scenic drive and no there's hefty Thruway toll. To say that the NY Thruway is a boring drive is putting it mildly.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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lol well the op Euro gets rid of the +EPO... but not exactly in the way we want it to.

Euro ensemble mean still keeps the +EPO going and still have a mild look... though closer to average with transient below shots day 10-16.

I think this is going to be our "pattern change"... a weaker GOA low that tries to reload after retrograding but still a hostile north atlantic and Arctic. Give the NAO/AO combination it's hard to go below normal... but I certainly think an average pattern with a wintry chance or two is in the cards Dec 5-10.

I could definitely see some SWFE events with the gradient pattern. Best chance for anything decent would be to our north in NNE.

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