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Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Lest you forget

Ginx, on 19 November 2011 - 02:45 PM, said:

Kevin you bailed last year, you bailed this year, we expect no less.

CT Blizz said

No I never bailed last year. I am not bailing this year. I am simply expressing my worries of a lost month of winter..Just like I did last year. I'm still hopeful Jan and Feb are good months this year. But for you to post this AM that the pattern looks good to you in early Dec is laughable

LOL, in the crosshairs.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Just to clarify from earlier, I referring to the NATL ridge...not necessarily the NAO. NAO is gone for the time being. I hope we can get that "bowl" effect from ridging near and off the coasts of both sides of NAMR. Keeps the cold within those ridges.

We can have high heights across the se ala '07 and '08, but we need the arctic air too...which may be tough this go around? Obviously, the interior north of Union CT can do much better.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Just to clarify from earlier, I referring to the NATL ridge...not necessarily the NAO. NAO is gone for the time being. I hope we can get that "bowl" effect from ridging near and off the coasts of both sides of NAMR. Keeps the cold within those ridges.

We can have high heights across the se ala '07 and '08, but we need the arctic air too...which may be tough this go around? Obviously, the interior north of Union CT can do much better.

Like I said...if we can get EPO the NAO can kiss my arse in Macy's window. 1993.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Just to clarify from earlier, I referring to the NATL ridge...not necessarily the NAO. NAO is gone for the time being. I hope we can get that "bowl" effect from ridging near and off the coasts of both sides of NAMR. Keeps the cold within those ridges.

We can have high heights across the se ala '07 and '08, but we need the arctic air too...which may be tough this go around? Obviously, the interior north of Union CT can do much better.

Yes the N ATL ridge can often be there during a big +NAO...it can be further north into the NAO region as well. I consider it a N ATL when its well north of the typical band of high heights you see near the Azores in a typical +NAO. Just as there are different versions of a -NAO, there are different versions of a +NAO.,.the one with those higher heights poking a little further north is not as bad for us.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yes the N ATL ridge can often be there during a big +NAO...it can be further north into the NAO region as well. I consider it a N ATL when its well north of the typical band of high heights you see near the Azores in a typical +NAO. Just as there are different versions of a -NAO, there are different versions of a +NAO.,.the one with those higher heights poking a little further north is not as bad for us.

Yeah I know what you mean. Sometimes it's just enough to push the +NAO PV a little more to the sw...which would help dump the cold into SNE. One of those 1030+ highs near Maine kind of deals.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

18z GFS ensembles are definitely better than the Euro ensembles...its too bad they are less skillful. Something to watch though...they have a -EPO whereas the Euro ensemble look to keep it positive.

It shows up really well too on the 850 mean temps in Canada between D9 and D11...you can see them just getting flooded south.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

18z GFS ensembles are definitely better than the Euro ensembles...its too bad they are less skillful. Something to watch though...they have a -EPO whereas the Euro ensemble look to keep it positive.

It shows up really well too on the 850 mean temps in Canada between D9 and D11...you can see them just getting flooded south.

I hope they are right. That's great right there. Even a compromise would be ok.

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

Posted
Posted

It's funny 2004 keeps popping up too. The pattern sort of hasn't been very Nina like...almost Nino like with the colder anomalies to the south. That may continue too.

I know..very nino like..cutoffs ect..I know enso plays a part,but it's just one factor.I mean last year was a strong Nina and NYC got 60 inches of snow..Hey weather will do what weather wants to do

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Well we can say this; is the pattern a change to a sustained wintry pattern? No it is not. Does there appear to be some chances? Yes, especially if the big ridge in the GOA is correct. At this point, that's about all we can ask for. I don't see arctic air which probably favors the interior, and the se ridge is there..which could mean a possibility of milder solutions with less wintry precip....but beggars can't be choosers. That period around the 3rd may dump enough colder antecedent air for many..but it's not worth discussing details at this stage. Luckily, our latitude may help us out.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Well we can say this; is the pattern a change to a sustained wintry pattern? No it is not. Does there appear to be some chances? Yes, especially if the big ridge in the GOA is correct. At this point, that's about all we can ask for. I don't see arctic air which probably favors the interior, and the se ridge is there..which could mean a possibility of milder solutions with less wintry precip....but beggars can't be choosers. That period around the 3rd may dump enough colder antecedent air for many..but it's not worth discussing details at this stage. Luckily, our latitude may help us out.

Good pep talk. You should include directions to the Tobin.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Well we can say this; is the pattern a change to a sustained wintry pattern? No it is not. Does there appear to be some chances? Yes, especially if the big ridge in the GOA is correct. At this point, that's about all we can ask for. I don't see arctic air which probably favors the interior, and the se ridge is there..which could mean a possibility of milder solutions with less wintry precip....but beggars can't be choosers. That period around the 3rd may dump enough colder antecedent air for many..but it's not worth discussing details at this stage. Luckily, our latitude may help us out.

Yeah that type of pattern is definitely not your classic east coast snowstorm pattern...but it will give us a shot at some SWFEs and such.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Maybe if we shed all of this negativity, it will snow...

:arrowhead: Scooter is just reporting on what he sees. At least there are possibilities...someday, somewhere

I don't know what was negative...lol. There are chances for some SWFE type deals. That's about all we can ask. At least we seem to have moved away from these insane positive departures.

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